Doorman

OPC 72 hr surface prog stationary front - n&w gets dicey

mt holly is on this https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off For Friday night...For Friday night...We see the departure of the frontal system. As the cold front moves away, arctic air will rush into the region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be replaced by readings in the teens and 20s. The overall evolution of the system will determine how precipitation ends. It is typically a challenge to get a rain to ice to snow event to occur as the precipitation is usually tapering off or ending before the colder air arrives. However, if the colder model solutions are right the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards the coast late in the event. The further north you go, the better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen precipitation near the end of the system. Either way, with the temperatures likely to be crashing, the setup looks quite favorable for a rapid freeze-up Friday night, so we will be keeping an eye on this.We see the departure of the frontal system. As the cold front moves away, arctic air will rush into the region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be replaced by readings in the teens and 20s. The overall evolution of the system will determine how precipitation ends. It is typically a challenge to get a rain to ice to snow event to occur as the precipitation is usually tapering off or ending before the colder air arrives. However, if the colder model solutions are right the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards the coast late in the event. The further north you go, the better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen precipitation near the end of the system. Either way, with the temperatures likely to be crashing, the setup looks quite favorable for a rapid freeze-up Friday night, so we will be keeping an eye on this.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0096.html

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Jersey-13-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data potential

just a very crude guide to follow Torch....we need to see that double barrel idea be put to bed I just started with the Meso nowcasting , so give me a chance to catch up I really dig that look fwiw

this is the RAP surface prog for around midnight...see the west lean on the contours?? sit tight and hug it back at 12 am when I update you dm

to the left to the left WPC lowtrack update

Current Sat with 500mb RAP overlay use the globe on the left hand menu to create your own map (click for mix and match overlays) and leave the weenies in the dust... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ dm

first call...j/k nws max potential

-Base -Snow Accumulation (ATM) you can see a 4 inch swing on the- plus side - in range... with minimal track wobbles (west) (banding) a foot for the metro looks solid use the link ...it updates every hour https://digital.weather.gov/ dm

Anthony's new ride!!!!!!

For posterity???

..Southern Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic... Days 2-3... ...Significant Nor'easter likely for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Forecast confidence continues to increase in a significant snow event, but the details of placement and amounts remains uncertain. Dual shortwaves moving across the central part of the country are progged to phase near the TN VLY and absorb into an amplifying longwave trough across the East Coast. This trough is then likely to tilt negatively and then close off as it approaches New England. At the same time, a pair of jet streaks downstream of the primary trough axis will intensify and become favorably coupled (overlap of LFQ and RRQ of the subsequent streaks), in tandem with the closing of the mid-level trough. All this is likely to occur atop the natural baroclinicity offshore the East Coast, leading to surface cyclogenesis off the NC/SC coast, which is then likely to lift northeast while explosively deepening, potentially below 970mb as it moves somewhere near the Benchmark (40N/70W) Saturday and then into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday. NW of the surface-850mb low track, heavy snow is likely with deformation and frontogenetical banding likely to enhance snowfall rates and accumulations. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

two lows that merge here- one off Florida Coast that is progged to be ABBSORBED by the other off the Carolinas models are bat shit crazy with this evolution I marked up the 1020mb contour developing storms have a knack of slowing down or not breaking into that pressure gradient easily old school tracking bias OPC tracks it south of the Benchmark (extrap at 986mb) 500mb chart Capture of the surface low is the key for weenie joy (west of the city) there are hints all over the place for this if the euro is correct as shown---the metro and west get jacked up banding snow-imho Follow the meso scale models as always ....closer to game time dm

How's this Trendy....

pink diamonds ftw

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd ..Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance for the most recent couple of cycles continues to show a rapidly deepening (bomb) cyclone in the western Atlantic over the weekend, but continues to waffle somewhat with its exact track, and the relatively fine-scale wobbles can cause notably different weather impacts. Latest guidance continues to favor an intermediate/consensus approach for depicting the western Atlantic storm during the weekend. A significant key to the forecast of the surface low by late Saturday appears to be exactly when, where, and how deeply the upper low within the overall trough closes off. ECMWF runs have been reasonably persistent on the earlier/deeper side with GFS runs at little later/weaker. Overall the forecast position for the low on Saturday and Sunday was very similar to the previous WPC forecast issuance, per the 00Z/06Z model consensus and taking somewhat of an average position between the slightly slower EC other faster models. However, incoming 12Z guidance has shown a slightly eastward/more offshore trend particularly on Saturday.

Tightrope Walking.... I think banding could bring some nice surprises a little scoot west is all it takes atm dm

no capture...kicked east

OPC 72hr surface prog

12-1 14-1 ratio is not a stretch -ATM baroclinic instability

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/