Doorman

Your gravy for now VW https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml

"HELLOOOOO NEW JERSEY" LLY

+++

GEFS 500mb It looks like a capture if you ask me

Upton already posting a-Hazardous Weather Outlook- for this system... https://www.weather.gov/okx/

please read the link Kudo's go to Tate and Rausch the WPC forecasters and their 500 mb progs https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd as good a disco as you will ever read dm

OPC 96hr surface prog

When you see the euro tick west at 1:00 pm Come back to this map and hug it for me!!!!!

That is a snowstorm for the metro ...neg tilt trough Saturday morning with surface low capture The euro will give you a similar look at 1 am. Then yell at the WPC forecaster who made the map When it doesn't deliver.

WPC 500mb prog We shall see about this

...Weather Highlights/Threats... Key Messages for January 28-30 (Friday-Weekend) Winter Storm: Confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will create considerable impacts Friday through the weekend from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast. While uncertainty continues with the track and intensity of this system, it is becoming more likely that it will bring significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the region, including the I-95 metropolitan areas. Hazardous travel conditions are possible due to the combination of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and wind. Close to the immediate Atlantic coastline, strong winds combined with high astronomical tides may lead to coastal flooding. Please continue to monitor for future updates as this system develops.

current- Unified Surface Analysis- https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php

OPC 96hr prog Powerhouse at 980mb Miller A Warm SST hang in and hold on https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

Is this a snowstorm? Just asking for a friend....

pressure falls and contour walls.....keep a shovel handy JIC

upstream TRENDS 500mb Northwest shifts translate well downstream (east coast) the small scale changes here can bring us a much better solution----imho

how about that? wpc disco ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Within the fairly agreeable mean pattern, the most prominent forecast uncertainties have been with the eastern Pacific/western U.S. evolution as shortwave energy approaches the upper ridge that reaches the West along with expected western Atlantic development as an amplified trough reaches the East late in the week. Model and ensemble spread remains considerable for the Pacific/West area, with recent GFS runs and 12Z CMC holding onto a stronger ridge versus the past couple ECMWF runs. However the 18Z and new 00Z GFS runs have adjusted much closer to the 12Z ECMWF and the ensemble means. The 00Z CMC has also trended toward this improving cluster. This leaves the 00Z UKMET that diverges from most other guidance for various aspects of the eastern Pacific/northwestern North American pattern. Perhaps with the aid of this better western agreement, the 00Z models have trended somewhat closer for the late week/weekend Atlantic development. In particular the 00Z GFS has gone away from the 12Z/18Z runs whose slower/sharper/elongated upper trough had produced a farther southwest storm than a great majority of GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble members. The 00Z GFS/CMC and latest ensemble means are now similar in showing low pressure somewhat east of the Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday and then tracking into or south of the Canadian Maritimes by early Sunday. The supporting shortwave energy is currently over the North Pacific and is not scheduled to round the East Pacific ridge until around Tuesday, plus guidance is still varying with the western ridge/Pacific energy heading into it, so it will likely take a while to gain much more confidence in a particular scenario.

well looky here. .. BW green means go??????? paging mr cowan

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/prec_f192_us.html lets see the guidance tighten up....and not spread false hope

understood....CL but the capture idea at 500mb is not over the top atm

The big take away ....wiggle room

Capture.....

Saskatchewan Screamer