psuhoffman

@frd @Ji was just scanning some of the weather twitters I follow and watched/read some of JBs stuff from the last week. Seems most are saying the same we are and just as confused by the lack or response yet. There is enough hints within the guidance though. Random op runs. Support within each enable. The eps still had 15 members last night miss is to the south with some frozen day 10-15. A few were even big hits to our south. Obviously there isn’t a se ridge problem if a west to east storm gets shoved to our south and it’s snowing in NC. Until I see a clear signal that either the mjo/soi is failing OR it gets inside 10 days and guidance is universal that we won’t get a response I’m sticking with the idea the guidance will adjust to the mjo like it has all year. on a Jb side note... I was a bit disturbed that he sounds a lot like me right now. Confused by the lack of response yet to the mjo and soi. Makes me less confident honestly. But others I trust more are saying the same. Jb does have knowledge but what’s frustrating is his spin and hype and sometimes I believe he purposely misrepresents things to give a false narrative. We essentially had the same forecast except I didn’t go as stupid crazy over the top as he did. But for the most part we thought the same. So I busted just as bad. Only I admitted it a month ago when the soi and mjo failed to act as expected mid January and cycled back into Nina phases after only a 7 day nino tease. At that time my forecast AND his was wrong. No matter the results it would still be wrong because all the justification for it was wrong. But he is still acting like everything is going according to plan. And even if he could pull off the snow with some late fluke his temperature call only runs to Feb 28 and has no chance. It’s toast. The exact place he centered his cold will be the center of the warmth yet he is acting like his winter forecast was ok. What’s more amazing is he has this google of followers that defend him (mostly around NYC which makes sense since they are the one place with such crazy anomslous snow recently that his forecasts weren’t as bad there).

The block on the gfs sets up too Far East. Great block...just need it near Greenland not out in the Atlantic.

Not me

All the pondering seems to give me bare grass. Lol that h5 chart is misleading. There has been above normal height near Greenland a lot but it’s been the most useless ridging possible. Not a real block. The last 5 days we had a real NAO block but it was weak and is breaking down about 24 hours too soon to help with Tuesday. It did help destroy the war so it got us in the game. Without it we would be warm still early next week with no hope at all like this week. It had an impact but it wasn’t strong or long enough to offset the -pna. Most of the time the NAO ridge wasn’t even that good. It was just a northern extension of a mid latitude war ridge. As soon as the next wave came it would retreat only to reload. It wasn’t “blocking” the flow at all and so was useless. Not all red there is the same for our snow chances. I’m keeping this simple. Soi tanking. Mjo going into cold phases. Those 2 have been running the pattern all winter. It’s taking longer than we want but that’s been the MO all year too. The mjo took FOREVER in warm phases remember. Maybe it comes too late. The timing is still better then last year if it comes around feb 20-25. This time we don’t need to wait for cold to establish in NAM. There is cold around. Last year the pattern flipped Feb 25 but it took 10+ days to get enough cold into the east to have real legit threats. This time it’s game on as soon as we get storms to track under us. Cold around. isn’t a problem.

@Ji thibgs are moving frustratingly slow but unlike mid January they are still progressing the way I want to see. It will suck to get right for early March but it is what it is. I’m in salvage mode now. We can go on some nice runs in March. We have lately! I’ll sacrifice Feb 15-22 if this is what it looks like after!

Yea I’ll get there tomorrow but I’m not yet to the point of “lowered expectations” lol

I think most would accept rain...but they want a scenario where there is snow on the ground when the storm ends. There is a huge difference between 1-3” followed by 1” of 40 degree rain and 4-5” followed by freezing rain and then some light rain and 34 degrees. One ends with soggy grass and one ends with a nice thick 2-3” glacier.

I posted a study published last year a week ago that said exactly that. @Ji the problem is the mjo progress has been slowing the last 2 weeks. First some expected the last wave to just continue into 8. I kind of never got on board that so I was debbing early Feb. Then the next wave was supposed to immediately initiate and go into 8...and I kind of did jump on that. That would have targeted a flip around feb 15-20. But again it’s stalled. It comes out and does a slow loop through 7 before getting to 8 late on the gfs and geps and on the euro dies back into null before actually gaining amplitude into 1. They aren’t as far apart as the charts look it’s actually the way they key on different conflicting convection waves. But the bottom line is they have both stalled getting a clear strong beneficial mjo signal to day 10 now. Add in the lag and ugh. Plus the latest stall makes it clear the mjo really hates phase 8/1/2 this year. I suppose it opens the possibility we are being duped again and it never really goes on a tour of those phases. I don’t think that yet. Guidance all strongly takes it into 8/1 but frustratingly slow. If in the next couple days we see a trend towards either a loop back to 7 or into null I will concede the mjo just hates us and it’s probably over. I’m not there now Finally the soi crash is progressing. Looks to really tank in 2-3 days and stay severely negative through the next 2 weeks. That should support the mjo moving towards more typical nino phases like 8-2. Finally...regarding Furtado’s study that 8 isn’t as good in a ssw year. That would argue that a ssw early in a nino is a bad thing. Maybe it did screw us. First there is a correlation between early season sswe and high amp warm phase mjo. So that puzzle piece killed a big chunk of early winter. And now there is evidence the sswe muted the benefits of a phase 8 mjo...when that is the main benefit of a nino since phases 8/1 match up with typical modoki nino forcing. So if those phases become less favorable basically a sswe early in a nino makes a nino less beneficial. Ain’t that a kick in the nads!

That’s been my story and I’m sticking too, but would like to see more signs guidance is moving that way. good luck with the precip, that problem would Far eclipse our petty snow issues!

Yea I was just going along with the tone Ji and Leesburg seem to be trying to establish. I don’t put much weight in the gefs right now anyways.

Agreed but the soi is about to tank and the mjo goes unti high amplitude 8/1 which correlate to a deep eastern trough yet the long range guidance wants to keep a SE ridge. That’s the part that has me confused.

It looks extremely negative day 3 on to me.

6z gefs brought back the SE ridge lol

What are you talking about

We sound idiotic every time we post something like the last line you wrote Saying what the euro shows isn’t a prediction

Lol. What’s your take long term? Why does the trough want to get stuck out west on guidance despite every favorable tele to a trough in the east?

This week doesn’t bother me much. Phase 6/7 isn’t a good look. This is about what should happen. I’ve tried not to deb on it when models were spitting out pretty snow maps and people wanted to believe but I never had much hope before the 20th. But if we get phase 8/1 and a -soi and the trough stays out west and we get cutters the following week, hide all the cute furry animals!!!

But 3-4 days ago most guidance kept the wave under us. Look at that gfs I posted above. At the time euro and fv3 agreed. People are saying that now because as the look started to degrade they began to cling to what snow options were left and for a time the hope of some frontrunning waa wave was all they had. But the problem with that is nothing can amplify into the ridge so a weak wave will wash out. A strong one will cut. It’s just a bad upper level pattern. We can luck our way to 1-2” in any pattern in mid winter. I don’t even waste my time on identifying patterns for that. But the look next week is flat awful for anything of significance. But Ralph loves a -epo-pna gradient pattern so there’s that!!!

EPS looks fine. Disappointing slightly that it still doesn’t want to progress the trough east. It’s cold in general day 10-15 but with the ridge there the threat of cutters exists. Does have a signal for something frozen day 10-15.

I want this back... But now we have... unfortunately the upper level pattern supports the second solution there. I can’t find any analogs with significant warning level snowfalls with a west based -epo, -pna without major blocking or a displaced Tpv. The upper air analogs to this week were really bad. No real snowstorms near the dates for any of them. Best in the lot were a couple nuessance 1” slop events. I don’t know why from range models like to push the boundary too far south in a -epo/-pna pattern but they do. General rule if there isn’t a strong block, a displaced tpv to our north, or the epo isn’t centered into western Canada, storms will adjust NW and the favored track is cutting to the lakes.

Better???? 12z op 0z op 12z eps 0z eps

I don’t have access to the 18z eps only the op.

Why no 18z euro update??? Trended north more. Pretty much nothing south of 70. Tight gradient north of there. 3-4” right along the PA line. That looks to get washed away by a deluge.

I’m going to roam the Earth like Caine...looking for snow.

18z gefs was a better run imo.