psuhoffman

But Ji cancelled winter

We don’t. The end.

-pna

I think they could stop him. But if they do it by stacking the line the way they did back in December Hurts likely picks them apart. I rewatched that game and they were so focused on stopping the run there were receivers so wide open, including the drop that would have iced the game. But Picket missed several wide open easy throws and they kept trying to run way too much into a stacked line. I kinda hope they do try to duplicate that game plan. I think the eagles score 40 if they do.

Where has chuck been? He ok?

I never said I thought the real flip was coming that soon. You know guidance usually rushes things.

From now until about Feb 15 it’s probably going to be a little tougher to get cold than it’s been so far this winter. There are conflicting signals but there is more forcing in the MC and western pac than we want. But the pattern looks far from hopeless. @mitchnick I think the eps was rushing things and will likely continue to delay some. But by day 15 you can see the inception of the real flip back cold. The wpo and epo are flipping. The AO never went that positive and is going negative again. With the mjo in 7 then I do expect some SER. But even so any warmth is living on borrowed time by Feb 8 if that progression is close to accurate. Cold is loading and with that pacific it’s going to come east, and once the mjo gets back to 8…we’re probably going back into the freezer. This isn’t one of those years where there is no cold to work with. I would be shocked if we’re done with snow.

Gfs is slower with the mjo and is still in 6 when euro has it half way through 7 by then.

But winters over… Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was. That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again.

Too bad winters over

Detroits winter was never likely to go well because they had no defense against warm intrusions due to significant losses in pressure gradients.

Take a seat on the couch. Close your eyes. Relax. Take a deep breath. Feel your tensions slip away. Now….try to turn off your emotional response and apply logic here. We do this EVERY year. Even in 2010. Seriously we were having this conversation around Jan 20 then. When that Jan 30 storm looked suppressed for a few days the “it’s almost over” posts started. Yes as we get to February the end of Winter is coming. And yes it is going to end. And I know for some of you that’s emotionally taxing and this is your emotional reaction to cope. But if you’re going to toss Feb 20 on every year because it’s too close to the end of winter and you can’t handle that for some emotional reason, then realize you have to adjust what winter should look like. Because Baltimore averages about 4.6” after Feb 20. If you throw that out their avg is only 14.7”. Worse the median goes down to about 10”! And I ran the weekly numbers years ago when we were having this same discussion and while there is a spike in HECS storms in early to mid Feb and it dips after, weekly snowfall and the chances of a 1”/3”/6” storm remain pretty similar until about March 10 then it goes down fast. So if you insist on tossing late winter because it’s too close to the end to enjoy, fine but you have to toss the snow we normally get then and by that standard we’ve already had a median snowfall winter in much of the area! By that standard we’ve had a good year! Or you can stay until the end of the movie and actually enjoy the final scene even though it’s almost over and just accept all things come to an end but next winter will come! Yea, go with that one. Ok now you feel completely refreshed. Light as a feather. Open your eyes and enjoy the rest of winter.

I’m keeping receipts on some of y’all. Don’t ever tell me I’m being a deb again.

What’s today’s date?

Looking at all the metrics, I mean models, I think Philadelphia is likely to get more “snow” than Washington. I think Washington might keep it close early with a quick hit, but over the course of the game, I mean season, Philadelphia probably pulls ahead to a comfortable lead.

@mitchnick the weeklies were a very snowy run. Stating the second week of Feb straight through into March a solid 1.5-2.5” mean every week. That’s high for a 7 day mean at range.

I’m not sure it’s always the right approach but they clearly have told Hurts to play very safe and just don’t make mistakes. The handful of times they needed to open it up he was able to do it and we’ve seen him pass effectively on the past, they just feel they have such an advantage on both lines they don’t need to play that way. It’s not an accident. They invest so much into both lines. They spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on the line almost every year. 2 years ago they spent 2 first round picks on the D line in the same draft and now both are starters. They have plenty of misses but they invest so much capital in the trenches they end up with an abundance of talent there. It’s a philosophy.

Yea but you can make it fun in other ways. I have a big party with the family when the eagles are in it. They get to see their cousins. We set up games for them. Set off fireworks before the game (and after if they win). I’m getting too old for the go to Philly and run around broad street drunk all night thing although me and my brother did that in 2017! The police were taking hits and doing shots with us! Fun times.

You want analysis of the pattern flip 3 weeks away?

I don’t engage much on social media but my friend told me some skins fans are driving him crazy because they are new to this and have no idea how to talk smack the right way. They’re jumping the shark so to speak. And yes eagles fans are the most aggressive obnoxious of them all just found that funny and maybe pertinent here.

Lol QB can equalize a lot. Also right now with Dean injured your linebackers are also better. You could also argue TE given our best one is playing injured and hasn’t been good since the injury. But yes the eagles have a talent advantage but the best team doesn’t always win.

I am NOT discounting Washington possibly winning...they have a shot, they are playing really well. But I am surprised by the amount of people thinking Washington is somehow "likely" to win. They are on the road, v a team that was better in almost every advanced metric all season. Also seeing way too much made of that 36-33 win when Hurts was out most of the game, their safety got ejected, they committed several bonehead out of character penalties, and their most sure handed receiver dropped an easy pass to ice the game. Is that all really likely to happen again? I think they have a fighting chance...I won't be shocked if they win...but some are acting like they SHOULD win.

this says a lot if you're worried about having the NFL rig the game for you lol BTW on a more serious note...your coach talking about hitting Hurts when the ref crew for the game had one of the highest rates of roughing the passer penalties wasn't that smart. I am not saying there was actually anything wrong with what he said, I have no problem with it personally, its kinda DUH yea hit him if he is running...just saying that coming out with that when you have a league hell bend on protecting the QB and a ref team known for calling roughing calls a lot wasn't a genius move. Sometimes its better to just keep it to yourself.

yea as if any of the people pretending to have a problem with that wouldn't date her if they had the chance

I don't get all the KC hate. Compared to most other really good teams there is a lot less things about them to hate. SF and New England back in the day were way more annoying IMO.