psuhoffman

Agreed. I think the mean looks like that now due to a high probability of a SECS to maybe MECS level event. 2016 the mean looked that way because a decent number of members were already showing 20” outcomes. Similar look from different scenarios.

Last time was 2016

I’m good with some SER with that blocking. Yea some waves could rain but I’m tired of dry and fringed and coastal scrapers and congrats Florida. I’ll take my chances on a wet pattern with blocking and the boundary near us.

Was that you accusing me of big dog hunting about 2 hours ago?

This has some of the highest potential we’ve had in a long time because it’s already cold across the continent before the pattern starts. We’ve had some pretty good patterns over the last 8 years but that all started with some scorched antecedent airmass that took weeks to get fixed. We look to jump right into threats even before the best long wave configuration sets up this time. We could have a very extended window for snow threats. I’m starting to become more optimistic for the reasons above that we can score before the blocking fully matures. The TPV is displaced enough and we have enough cold around that this could be the exception where we don’t have to wait for the pattern to fully mature to start getting snow! I told you twice I wasn’t dismissing before Feb 20 just thought our BEST chances would come then. I was less sure based on the history of TNH patterns. But I’ll admit the pattern is progressing way ahead of schedule and the boundary looks to be setting up further south and I think we do have a better chance to score one of these waves than I initially thought.

What did you do with chuck

Welcome to the party, come inside, let me take your coat.

Feb 16-March 20

The last couple times we expected it to help it didn’t seem to do squatola. We already had one period of blocking despite the “hostile” QBO

I’ll take my chances on a repeat of Januarys pattern but in Feb/March. Probably will be wetter. Shorter wavelengths and increased heat south of the boundary will make it easier to get storms wound up also.

@CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember.

Chuck will find something wrong with it.

The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range.

@CAPE this a -NAO?

The gefs is trending towards the EPS and it’s only a few days behind getting to the same place even if it’s right. At least with respect to the day 15 pattern.

You will be surprised if the EPS verifies better than the GEFS?

I wasn’t talking about you. lol. You’re not a new poster. That comment had nothing to do with you.

Feb 2013 I got 5” in 90 mins from a squall. During the Feb 10 2010 storm I got 12” in 3 hours at the start. That’s the heaviest snows I’ve experienced here.

I said I’m less confident about what happens between now and Feb 20 not that it has no chance. The issue is historically models have teased us a lot from a week out in TNH -epo +AO patterns only to shift NW. This includes some of the analogs I’m riding. I remember around Feb 1 in 2018 we were optimistic about a similar pattern. There were epic runs with tons of hits. In the end we got like 2-3” from one wave and a lot of rain. Something similar happened in 2017 also. Yea it could go like 2014 but more often this pattern we end up on the wrong side. Not always. This year has been colder so maybe we get the rare win. But Chuck isn’t totally wrong about his reservations. But he is too sure and extending it too long imo. But this isn’t a sure thing. This type of pattern is usually better for the upper Midwest and interior New England than here.

There was some squall in the 80s where some places got 7” in an hour! There was that inverted trough in 2009 where places in southern PA got 11” in 2-3 hours. I’d almost love that more than a regular 20” storm.

That’s a seriously -AO

The cold looks like it’s penetrating the SER

-pna

-pna