psuhoffman

Oh hello...

The pattern in the western and central Pacific is less supportive of that happening imo. Maybe temporarily at the very start, but we are not in the deep hostile PDO regime that I think was a big part of that problem recently.

Maybe you didn't read the whole post... "This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that. We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at. Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm. I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible. Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing. "

I think its perception bias. The numbers show the chances of a snowstorm are almost the same each week until you get past the second week of March when they fall off a cliff suddenly. Yes we have a LOT of fails in March because of boundary temps. Guess what, we just had one of those 2 weeks ago! We had one on the day of the super bowl in Feb 2021! I got 7" and 95 white rain because boundary temps sucked on a perfect track storm! Had those two storms happened in March people would have attributed the fail to it being March when in reality that happens even in the middle of winter here because we suck at snow.

Everything looks on track. You can see the SER getting beaten down at the end of the GEFS. EPS ends a day sooner but its hinting at the same progression. That takes us to mid Feb. A week later the boundary is likely south of us. I might add in a couple day leeway for the fact the guidance often is too fast in this progression but its now starting to line up with the idea that around Feb 20 is the start of the next colder period. This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that. We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at. Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm. I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible. Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing.

I'm gonna go ahead and pencil in our March 93 repeat for March 3th and our March 58 nightcap for the 7th.

I am NOT the only one who called for a likely colder period towards the end of this season. Several others noted that in their seasonal forecast or have been calling for it for weeks. Just pointing out that some long range calls are very low confidence. This one, IMO, has higher confidence.

There seems to be some kind of stigma about March snowfall...I've tried to fight it but its hopeless. I do think people need to know their local climo, there are places in the southern 1/3 of this forum where the climo really does degrade significantly after about Feb 20. If I lived down in the lower Delmarva or the northern neck I probably would check out by March 1. But 95 where most in here live has until about March 15 before the spring wall hits. Where we are up here its more like the first week of April.

We certainly could get a big snow the last week of Feb, but if I had to bet on a specific week for a warning level snowfall I would take the first week of March...might even take the second week of March after that, then the last week of Feb as my 3rd option. These things often take time to set up and establish and beat down the SER. Maybe we charge right in and get a hit immediately but that's not how most go. 2018 it took 3 weeks of blocking before we finally got a big snowstorm and it came just before the clock hit midnight on our chances. The pattern evolution kinda reminds me a little of that year right now. Before anyone panics about "but it didn't snow until March 20" remember we had several really good threats starting with a storm around March 1 that year but for various reasons they all didn't come together.

Honestly, from weeks ago saying we were probably going to have another cycle of -AO/NAO and a colder period late Feb and March was one of the easier long range calls that could be made imo, for all the reasons I laid out previously. And I am not averse to saying "I have no idea what is going to happen" when I don't which is often wrt long range stuff. Actually kinda surprised it took so long for some to come to this conclusion (I guess they needed to see it on the guidance first) but glad we seem to be getting a consensus forming now.

You must be at the base of Iron Hill? And 300 feet definitely makes a difference...The ridge I am on has about a 250 ft difference on one side and 350 on the other. I am about 1050 and the neighborhood on one side is at about 800 ft and on the other about 750. In marginal setups when the temperature is close to freezing it can make a huge difference. Earlier this winter I got 4" and the neighborhood below got about 1.5". There was a storm a few years ago I got 3" and there was only a slushy coating below. Obviously in a cold storm it makes less difference but we have not had a lot of those lately...especially on the coastal plain.

This doesn't sound like the best idea for your mental health!

They’re warmer because week 3 shifted warmer. The rest is too far out to care and often just tries to to resume a status quo enso look. They keep teasing a faster flip then backing off. I think we do get a cold shot for a few days around Feb 10-13 but then warm up again. Any permanent flip is closer to or after Feb 20 and too far out for guidance to see yet. What it does see is the AO starting to go negative again. Without as hostile a PDO the warmth is on borrowed time once that happens.

Because it’s still rushing. We probably don’t go left sustained cold until Feb 20 or later.

They typically coincide with a period of -AO

It's just a few days, calm down. We are going to have a 2-3 week milder and more hostile for snow pattern...but we are already tracking possible longshot snow threads in the middle of this "worse" pattern and already seeing the signs of the flip back cold at the end. This is so much better than recent years when we spent the majority of winter in a no hope shutout looking pattern.

If you are where I think you are...your elevation is about 25-50 feet. This is actually lower than much of the Delmarva south of you. There is a really awful zone in northern DE south of the fall line to the canal linking the two bays. I've observed this area... warmth seems to come up the Chesapeake Bay and continue NE and links to the same effect coming up the DE bay that used to affect me when I lived in NJ. You live in a regional snowfall minimum. What's worse is those places well south of you on the DELMARVA probably don't get more snow than you...but they don't get less and they live geographically far from the areas that get a lot more...to their west a huge body of water divides them and they have to go far north. You are really close, only about 15-20 miles from places that get almost double your snowfall which makes it hurt even more. Trust me I've lived places like that and I know the pain...but it's not going to change, its due to geographic factors that will cause you to get less snow in most storms than places around you.

He probably had no idea and just came in and posted... Horrible what happened...nothing else to say really.

It would actually be better if we got the trough centered a little further NW this time! In a nino with juiced up STJ waves coming at us that same exact trough axis and blocking configuration would be perfect...but in a cold enso with less STJ we need everything displaced further west so that the weaker boundary waves are closer to us and not hitting New Orleans!

Also seeing the trough showing up again on the central pacific. If that combines with a -AO again I don’t care what h5 says the cold will press east.

To elaborate my confidence is based on 3 things. 1. the analogs all suggested a colder snowier period between Feb 20-March 20 2. The AO had been in a very consistent cycle over the last 6 months and if you time it out it should be going negative again by Feb 20. Persistence here matches the analogs 3. When we bet a period of severe -AO/NAO like we had in early January it usually cycles again one more time after a relax. It doesn’t surprise me that guidance is now starting to hint at what “should” be coming.

I see nothing that’s changed my mind that we get colder again around Feb 20

Without blocking storms tend to trend NW. With blocking not so much. We saw both phenomena this season.

If it looks like that 48 hours out I’ll feel confident….. That I’ll get another big snow and 95 might get a slushy inch. JK….kinda

In fairness it trended warmer for the first 10 days of Feb from 1-2 weeks ago. But now fits a more logical progression