psuhoffman

@Stormchaserchuck1

That’s mine

I’m sorry you’re right the thread was better when you were trying to cause mass hysteria because the 170 hour clown maps keep shifting around every 6 hours.

Sometimes I rely on persistence. But my seasonal forecast just got blown up by relying on that too much. I’m guessing the trend of trends not holding continues this season. I just have a feeling the pacific which has been driving much of this is shifting. We will see soon who is more correct.

I can’t tell when a model at day 20 is right or not. But this call was made before any model showed anything. It was based on pattern recognition, analogs and timing the cycles we’ve been in. The fact guidance came around to that only adds some confidence. But I wouldn’t base a long range forecast just on what models show that far out.

I just don’t expect that pattern to last forever.

Might be the first threat of “that” window. I foresee multiple waves while the block decays and the trough is centered in the east. Not sure how extended. March 2018 we had a solid month with chance after chance and frankly it took incredible back luck to only get that one big snowfall. Don’t know if this has that same staying power. But I’d guess even if the block decays quickly we get at least a week which would be time for 2 waves before the pattern breaks down. I’m not out on next week. The EPO is going to want the front to press. The AO is going negative. It’s not the best MECS look for a classic coastal but we’ve scored in fluke atypical setups before. I noted a decent number of “how did that happen” snows when I did that case study of all mid Atlantic snowstorms. Maybe we get lucky again. I just think the pattern after might require less luck that’s all.

Fair point but to play devils advocate, the last 8 years most of the time was a torch earlier in winter also. It’s not like January and February were cold either. An already warm continent doesn’t lend itself to cold March. But we did get a snowstorm March 20 in 2018 from blocking in a late season cold enso. Some similarities and only 7 years ago. 2015 and 2014 aren’t that long ago either. Have things really changed that much or was the warm spring a function of the crazy -PDO cycle we were in? This years PDO does not seem as hostile. I think we might be in the midst of a transition in the pacific out of that long term cycle.

It’s pretty stable after to when the run ends here, then if you believe the extended it peaks a few days after with that image I posted an hour ago you got excited about. I think that’s our best window of opportunity for a real MECS event.

Way too many act like each run at day 7 is going to be the final solution v just another clue. Until we get within a few days I treat each run like one card being dealt in a long night at the poker table. Some act like every run is the last card of the night and they have their entire life savings riding on it.

It did. Slightly. You’re welcome.

Would it be funny if cape, bob and I all came in here one day with a mission of driving all the weenies off a cliff just to see what happens? Don’t worry I would NEVER do such a thing.

South of PA definitely mixes but it’s not the worst look. Yea there is a weakness in the high where we don’t want it but still generally higher pressure all across to our north. If we can get the pressure directly over us about 5mb higher we have a chance. This isn’t that far from a snowier outcome imo.

Slightly colder press, better CAD but slightly more amplified wave. Likely a wash and similar to 12z in the end.

Thanks for the info. I’d be curious to see what this rare combo of that extreme a -AO block encroaching into the north nao domain over top a south +nao would do. I guess we’re about to find out.

lol. Sorry. It is what it is. But I’ve been riding the end of Feb or early March as a period to watch for a while and I see no reason to back down now.

MECS window

Nothing about this winter has been typical. And the last two ninos weren’t typical Nino. Enso hasn’t meant as much lately.

When you looked at +NAO did you also make sure to only use examples where the AO is negative with a block over top the nao? This is delicate because I don’t totally disagree with you. I’m also skeptical. But that -AO gives this more of a chance than if it was a more typical +nao in conjunction with a +AO.

@Stormchaserchuck1 sorry of that came off harsh, didn’t mean it to be.

We know how the nao is numerically calculated but most don’t functionally do it that way. Also the AO is even more correlated to snow than the nao so ok it’s a -AO. With regards to snow chances whats your point?

It counts freezing rain as snow. Ignore TT snow maps

that’s kinda what I thought. I lived in southwest NJ for 13 years. I’m familiar with the climo there. It SUCKS!!!

@frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area? Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more? Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both?