psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet.
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Something’s been missing
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lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead.
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The setup has some similarities.
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You want it exactly where it is right now. BTW similar to PD2 there will be a warm layer above 850 that intrudes into that firehose to our south. Being a little NW of that is not a bad place to be. Not that ending up with 20” of snow and sleet would be bad either. But some of those places showing 25” will probably in reality mix more from a mid level warm layer the gfs won’t see.
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Maybe in Vermont
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The AO starts to tank by the 12th. That’s a few days ahead of schedule. Then we because there is already cold around we dive right into threats. I still think things look good for around the 20th.
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EPS just opened up a can
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The blocking started to set up a week ahead of schedule.
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As far as you know it could be stuck from April to October.
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EPS
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Lol
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14-15 was a modoki nino and 2014 was the best cold enso season since 1996 and the second best since the 60s. This is probably going to end up being one of the better cold enso seasons of the last 20 years...that should be the bar.
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I'm basing it off pattern analogs not what the models show right now....and I am being conservative given how little snow we have had lately.
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also keep in mind the "averages" are both skewed by those 1-2 huge years a decade and also lag real time because they are based on the last 30 years but we know our snowfall is decreasing. So in reality IAD's average NOW is probably lower. In about 20 years when we can calculate the average centered on this season it will probably be like 18 or 19".
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So your bar for not being a "disaster" is winter has to do something that has only happened 4 times in the last 20 years?
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I am being conservative too...one flush hit can go over that of course but how often have we got lucky lately?
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This is just an educated guess based on similar years and patterns but I'd put your over under at like 9" the rest of the way
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@Ji based on my analogs and what I’m seeing Id expect you to get 12-15” more if I had to guess. Would that get you to above avg?
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No because it’s a cold enso. Historically cold but not super snowy cold enso seasons are normal. If we got a cold modoki Nino and wasted it I’d be more upset. Plus we are above average for the date in many places. There is a lot of time left. What do you need to get to average?
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Weak Nino
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Every storm is slightly different. Adjust that 50 miles south and you get a foot of snow and ice like that euro run. Just have to take our chances.
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That period must not have been as good down there. You keep talking about 2007 like a fail. But from mid Feb to mid March I had an 8” ice storm followed by a 4” snow to ice event then a 6” snow in March. The winter as a whole was a fail because I had no snow at all before that period. But mid Feb to mid March was plenty good imo.
