psuhoffman

I got about that near IAD. True SE of 95 didn’t get much but that’s common in amplified coastals unfortunately. I mean even people west of the fall like were kinda meh about that storm when it comes up in discussions. Not sure if it’s because it was an awful year otherwise or they are mad Philly NE got double what we did.

Feb 6 1995 is showing up in the analogs a lot. That was an underrated storm imo. Ya the hecs level snow was northeast of us but we got 6-10” across our area and it was mostly in a 6 hour period with thunder snow. I never understood why so many acted like that was some letdown just because places that get more snow than us got more snow than us.

Before everyone goes nut's 9/10 times that won't lead to a triple phased super storm...you also need to get the arctic jet to fully dive in and phase and that's the tricky part...but its a loaded look for sure. And then at the very end its reloading the ridging near Greenland again.

Think full latitude negatively tilted trough from the Arctic to Florida

no not close in a bad way

Unfortunately 90% of what I do now is data and budgets and progress monitoring which isn't my favorite, I miss teaching but this is way better for my kids, flexible hours and days and more pay, but I can sit here and toggle between my spreadsheets and weather lol

someone else see Feb 25 on the GEFS...I don't want to be the one to say it...what that is way too close to in terms of a setup

EPS at day 15 is even BETTER today! Feb 20 and 24 both look good and there is going to be at least one more very good wave window after that probably around Feb 28-Mar2

I'm actually not in the office today, they are renovating and so I'm working from home this week, other than Thursday when I am helping with a PD at my old school where I worked for 18 years! I do get to work from home one day a week now which helps a LOT and they are pretty understanding when there is weather letting us work home unless there is an important board meeting or something that day.

F backup plan I want them both

ok sure but I just want to get a classic amplifying coastal bomb snowstorm where I get to analyze where the deform is gonna be and most OMG images at the 2"/hr rates and worry about the exact track of some 980 monster and say "tucked" 25 times...

@Heisy besides I once posted the H5 for 3 epic snowstorms and 3 epic fails and blocked the dates and no one could differentiate between them. It's kind of luck with synoptic variables that determines the surface details and the difference between some close miss like that and actually getting the 2ft models teased us with until 24 hours out.

OMFG get that ish out of here

Ya'll know I will be the first person to lay it on ya straight when I think things are going sideways with some depressing "uh oh" post. It's way too early for that shit. The pattern is damn near perfect. Model runs will bounce around some with details because of the lead time here...but the fact they are all around us with big hits or near misses is a good thing. We just have to wait a few days now to see how the details start to line up. There is going to be a wave in our area with the chance to amplify along the east coast. That is the point of getting this pattern. The details that will determine exactly where gets snow will be dependent on subtle factors we won't know until much closer.

yes, I don't think we are going to have "that" problem... let's not worry about any problem until it actually happens. Life's too short

Blocking is getting established this week...Feb 20th is the second wave, the PD wave is the one to kick start the favorable window. But it's possible the wave around Feb 24 ends up an even better setup...but its hard to say I like both right now honestly. Feb 20 Setup @Stormchaserchuck1 close enough to 50/50? I can see why suppression "could" be a concern if the wave isn't amplified enough...but thats why we like blocking...it allows us to root for a more amplified wave. That's how we get big storms. Not complaining about this snow mean either at day 10! But the next wave has a better PNA ridge to work with and might be in a better place to amplify...if the first wave is suppressed that might be a better shot.

loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way... For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves.

I'm saving most of them for my book but I thought I'd give ya that nugget for free

you're talking like one op run of the euro means that's whats happening... WHat about the last run where it cut and we got rain?

Why do some people prefer missing snow to the south v the north? I don't get the Boston hate for example. People in New ENgland deserve the snow more than me. It's supposed to snow there...they chose to live somewhere that averages more snow so they deserve it. When I move up there sometime for more snow...I will deserve to get the snow because I moved somewhere to get it! But the SOUTH??? Why does someone who knowing chooses to live somewhere that averages 10" of snow a year deserve snow? If they cared that much they would move somewhere that snows more. No... I would much rather miss snow to my north where the people who deserve snow are v people too lazy to move somewhere snowier.

Maybe, or maybe not...but it wouldn't shock me if we have to wait through a suppressed wave or two before we get ours...or maybe we are unlucky and its too much blocking and SE VA ends up with a historic period. Who knows. But it's one op run at super range.

@Maestrobjwa OH NO the euro takes 3 straight waves south of us...suppressed by the monster block...Where is Chucks +NAO when we need it lol Too much blocking!!!

Euro is a miss southeast, so that should quiet the "its too warm" fears for a bit. This is setup to be a big storm somewhere and our area is historically the target with this kind of configuration...but it could easily be slightly north or south of us...that's up to details we won't know for a few more days at least.