psuhoffman

I don't think we are worried about that area...I think those of us on the NW fringes of this region are the ones worried that it might do exactly that again. lol I'm not overly worried YET, but if in another day or two its still showing what it is now...

Most of MD just south or east of me didn't get much from that. There is a dead zone in northeast MD that's really bad this year WRT climo, worse then the typical "dead zones" I can remember in recent years. But we have a month of snow season left to correct that...I am kind of expecting something to come along to even it out some. Not necessarily totally even out, because places SE of us probably get some more snow also...but if we get one more storm and its like the GGEM or GFS show right now...that would be just crazy for a seasonal snowfall pattern. Might be the worse screw job NE MD has ever had honestly if it went down that way.

It's really only been 2 storms that jacked the same place...which isn't crazy for random chance. But a 3rd in a row? If we get 3 major storms this year and each has the exact same jack area...and its an unusual one at that given climo...that would be a first in my memory, maybe I'm forgetting a season that happened

name me one winter where every major storm jacked the same spot? I can't think of any! Even years where I felt I did worse WRT to climo than places to my SE there was at least more variance then this.

I would much rather nothing then that At least I wouldn't waste time tracking nothing...but if I waste a week tracking and that is the end result... like I said anything cute and furry better hide

I dunno but it's almost unprecedented for the lower eastern shore to get more snow than me, there have been some seasons like this where I only get a little more then them...but if we were to get one more storm this season and it jacks that area again and fringes us...it would be something that has NEVER happened before in terms of a seasonal outcome. It's getting beyond just "seasonal trend" into the freaky unprecendented getting 5 heads in a row kinda territory.

depends... but I doubt anyone in MD NW of 95 wants to see any model run that shows the snow SE of DC like that. Sorry but its kinda traumatic at this point. I would rather see a storm with precip type issues right now, both given this setup and given how this season has gone.

Every cute furry woodland creature better stay the F away from me if we get one more snowstorm with a jack SE of 95.

yea this is what I mean in my last post...the GFS is a mess with that upper feature and stretches it out which deamplifies the flow under it. If it looks more like the Euro/GGEM I think we get a bigger storm.

It has a LOT more potential...look at the upper low to our NW...on the GFS is strung out and diffuse west to east over the top. That causes it to act more as a disruptor and blocking force rather than digging in and amplifying the wave. If that were to consolidate more around either lobe up there...preferable the further west one, that's how last nights Euro got it done...but either...get a more consolidated upper low that can amplify and cause ridging in front of it rather than stretch out and deamplify the flow...this would end up a bigger storm.

Maybe, but we are heading into the range where models have actually locked in on a general solution close to what the end result was. Obviously there will be some details that change but almost every event this year something close to the final outcome started to show across guidance around 140-150 hours out, then only fairly minor wobbles happened from then on it. I don't mind if they start to lock in on a mid atlantic MECS now...were not day 10+ anymore.

You know, NYC hated the 80s...and looking at the local snowfall stats for up here using the Westminster and Hanover COOP data... it was a worse decade up here compared to avg than in DC, kind of similar to this year. Not saying the 80's were awful, but there were a lot of winters in the 80's where DC and up here had almost the same snowfall totals which is rare otherwise considering I average more than double the snowfall...but it happened like 4 times that decade and even the years I had a lot more...none were crazy more like 2021 or 2014 when I got like 50 or 70 inches more than DC lol. There might be a lot to this...

@Ji this is kinda funny because over the last 5 years I've been the champion of how much warming is hurting our snow climo...and now this year I am defending against some who are acting like "we should be getting 100" of snow and its a horrible sign we aren't" but let me make the case why I DON'T see the need to panic over "wasting" this year... First of all we have not "wasted" it...we did get snow and we got weeks of snow on the ground and I think we are not done at all...but this is why I don't see this as a wasted year for a big snowfall result IAD has had 25"+ only 15 times in the last 50 years. Here is the breakdown 9 Nino years, 5 enso neutral, 1 Nina 1 time...once. one more than none, has IAD had 25" in a la nina in the last 50 years. And that one unicorn year 1996 had crazy blocking, not just for a few weeks but through most of winter...and a rare strongly positive PDO in a cold enso. No other cold enso years had that combo. And we don't have that this year so expecting that kind of anomaly again is foolish imo. The PDO came in around -1 for January, way better and I do see signs it may be flipping its base state some, maybe not to a positive cycle, but out of the mini super negative cycle we were in, those tend to run in 4-7 year patterns and we are due for that ish to end. But we are still in a negative PDO so this was not the setup for a blockbuster rare non nino big snowfall winter. It would have been unprecedented actually as in NEVER happened before, to get a cold enso -PDO blockbuster snowfall winter. Also, if we look at region wide true blockbuster winters, which I'll define as years that IAD and BWI got 30" and DCA got 20", we've only had 8 of those in the last 50 years. 8 in 50 years....that's how rare what you're asking for is, a region wide big snowfall year. Everything has to be right...not just a decently cold winter...we need the storm track, juiced up STJ, blocking...the whole works and then we still need to get lucky on top of that. It's super rare. This year we are lacking some factors all those others had. Only 1996 was a cold enso on that list and it had an anomalous PDO that offset the cold enso. We don't have that this year. I see getting a near normal to slightly above normal snowfall winter in most places as a win, its near the top of what the results were in similar winters. Actually if we look at cold enso with a -PDO, which eliminates 1996 and 2006, there is a good chance this ends up the snowiest winter of the last 50 years in that subset if we an just get one more good snowstorm for places NW of 95.

I'd rather it be centered there then right on top of us... the second issue is more cold enso common and why I keep saying in general not specific to any one setup, our high end on any given storm is probably high SECS to MECS and not HECS type events. We just don't typically get the juiced up amplified STJ waves that can bully their way across and attack the NS flow in cold enso seasons. We need more of the other variables to go our way, and even then storms tend to max out at MECS not HECS even if everything does go our way.

Cold but not crazy snowy winters are not historically uncommon at all. Especially in cold enso years. They’ve been uncommon lately because cold has been uncommon. But the fact we’ve struggled to ever be cold enough I think is making it feel like “we can’t afford to waste a cold winter with just avg snow” but historically that’s very very normal. Just because it’s warmer now doesn’t change that. I’ll agree if we get a central pac based moderate Nino in a +PDO we cannot afford to waste that. That’s a year we need 40”+ across the area. No excises. If we wasted a year like with a pacific setup like 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015… I’d be really really worried and upset. Those have to be blockbuster winters. A cold -enso with meh snowfall is just par for the course. But what is your bar? You’re acting like this year had big snow potential. It’s a cold enso. It’s a neural pdo at best, year better than the pdo hell we expected but it’s not a 1996 or 2014 type setup where we had an incredibly favorable pacific superimposed on the cold enso. This year we just had a mediocre pacific. Look at the best analogs to this season and cold isnt shocking. But most weren’t that snowy. The bar for this winter was always to get to near normal snow was a win. This year didn’t really scream 50” winter incoming.

I don’t feel like digging out my KU book but from memory I think it was like 1002mb when it passed off the VA capes and got down to about 996 off NJ. It want a deep low the snowfall was driven by good STJ moisture feed and good mid and upper level energy. Not a crazy deepening surface system

Rain snow line is further NW than that 83 storm on this particular run but I see the general similarities. Kinda like that storm just displaced a little NW.

I’m giving you a hard time because you implied I was down on the period because I said we probably wouldn’t get a 12”+ snow which was purely based on probabilities and how rare they are, and then the next run shows a 12” snowstorm…almost

Actually even with that storm I’d still be about 3” short of climo while places SE of 95 are already over climo but I’ll accept it lol. Just pointing out even if I get a 16” snow and places SE of 95 get rain they’re still having a better winter wrt climo. It’s been that lopsided. It has to even out eventually.

Sorry @Maestrobjwa it’s only 11.6”

There ya go @Ji Euro evens the score across our region in one day. That would get us all back to about where we should be wrt climo of that happened as this run shows. lol

Euro is super amped. Waiting to see if there is precip type issues but don’t care I want to see this amped up

It’s not uncommon for is to get meh snowfall in a cold enso season even with a good pattern. It’s so much easier for us when there are juiced up STJ waves coming at us contagious in a Nino. I’ll worry more if we waste a Nino with a favorable pacific.

What’s done is done. This coming pattern isn’t likely to make up for what’s already happened. We’re not in a Nino which limits how much of a heater we can get on. If we were in a moderate Nino I’d say ya sure let’s hope for some 20 days 50” snowstravaganza but those juts don’t happen in cold enso seasons. If we come out of the rest of winter with 10” that’s a win. Nothing will go back and give us the snow we didn’t get from past fails.

I was talking about the rainstorms tomorrow and this weekend. That’s not uncommon. Remember the rain we got the first week of blocking in Jan 2010 (when you made the famous complaining posts) Jan 2016 and Jan 2021. The SER doesn’t just instantly go away when a block forms. It takes a wave or two to knock it down. Yes we need the last week of Feb to produce. I think we also get some shots the first 10 days of March. But yea we’re running out of time. Dunno why you think they look awful. I mean the gfs and ggem are cow farts away from a decent snowstorm. There’s a wave right there we just need it to amp up a little.