psuhoffman

He’s losing something alright

@Ji and yea the ens are 10-1 and lower resolution which you have to take into account when comparing to the op.

6z was significant better No one posts them (probably because they are almost never as good as the mean maps because these aren’t skewed by outliers) but the mode and prob maps are more important and shifted the jack from SE to right up or even NW of 95. Mode 6” prob

I have a quarter mile driveway if you include the part shared with 5 neighbors. One of them has a tractor and will plow it but if they aren’t home or I need to get out before they get to it no way I’m shoveling that ish.

You got a truck? Come borrow my snowblower

For now de-amplifying as this window amplifies more. There is a see saw to this. Conservation of energy. For now guidance has a weaker clipper like wave now. But once we get closer don’t be shocked if it pops back up.

Damage is done. Colds been dumped into the CONUS and so long as we don’t get a pac puke flood and the trough is in the east inertia will keep is cool for a bit. Looks like extended guidance breaks the pattern around March 10 Which times up with the MJO likely getting back to hostile phases. I think any warm up before then is fleeting like a day before a front. After March 10 I can see is going into full spring though with a SER once the MJO gets out of cold phase.

It was the h5 and speed of 12z but the progression of 18z wrt developing the arctic wave and rolling through with that feature. It was the best of both.

Tell us again

Ya know I’ve argued for years the 12k NAM just ads noise and confusion. Sure once in a blue moon it scores a coup but 90% of the time when it’s off on a tangent it’s wrong. We’d be better if it just didn’t exist. 3k ads value because as long as it matches the globals on Synoptics it can see features they can’t. But im getting to that point with the GFS. Since the last major upgrade that fixed some of the early biases they were causing the new euro after its core upgrade to be jumpy, it’s been a rock. Of cores it’s not always right, but it’s right or closer to right often enough that the other models tend to just add confusion unnecessarily. And when another model has been closer on rare occasions it’s almost never been the gfs. Maybe one fluke run here or there but what good is that because you don’t know what run is right. It’s sad but bc the euro and to a lesser extent the Ggem have made significant improvements and the GFS has not kept up, it’s becoming kinda obsolete right now to me. I feel like I’d better off not even looking at it most of the time. Wonder if NCEP sees this too and has any plans to do anything about it. I dont doubt we have the knowledge. I think it must be a funding issue.

GFS is one thing you know who could cancel and I wouldn’t mind

I’m worried about the GFS

Or he’s busy arguing with everyone on social media about what the NAO is Love ya Chuck.

Good that means he can’t find any reason to tell us it’s not happening.

Tuckity tuck tuck

I can abide by this run

I can’t do pbp I like to digest each frame and analyze and you Fers just jump right to the colorful maps lol

Yup

From h5 I think it’s another nuke

H5 is coming out first on wxbell. Amped as F at 108. Can’t see surface though. Just h5

Ralph thinks it’s too flat

Reverse psychology

Yea liked the progression just seemed dry. Not worried.

Ok you know what I can see what you saw. That’s just way too early. But I see it. But even then there are signs that early flat flow won’t matter. 1) the wave is more amplified. 2) look at how the TPV lobe is already more disconnected out west and ahead of schedule in the process of breaking off. Those 2 things offset the flat flow you were noticing.