psuhoffman

Damn UK at 120 looks like

For reference

@Ji you probably didn’t notice because it was during the dry slot and not much was happening. We didn’t lose much precip to sleet. Maybe it cost us 1”. But it was off and on light sleet for a while. We did lose 6” or so to the dry slot which is why we had about 24” and not the 30”+ further west and north did. And the sleet was a function of the same thing that caused the dry slot so related. I’m certainly not complaining about the 24” we got. It was an awesome storm but remember they had us in the 30”+ zone for a bit but the warm mid levels pushed further NW than expected.

No 1996. Sunday afternoon. During the dry slot. Light sleet for 2-3 hours. While the cowboys were kicking the snot out of the Eagles in the playoffs in what was Randall’s last game in Philly. I remember.

I was in Herndon VA and it did sleet for a few hours but it was during the lull so it didn’t really cost us much accumulation.

Sleet got all the way into central MD in the 1996 storm too. Not saying that happens. Just saying this ggem run reminds me of that storm.

Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way.

Regardless of what the goofus says or any solution for one particular run, this is by far the best pattern we’ve seen since this god forsaken snow drought began in 2017. It looks very similar to past patterns that lead to some epic periods. This isn’t hyperbole, the analogs are lit up with our best snow periods of the last 30 years! It’s time to cash in. And I don’t mean eke out 4 or 5”. Yes I realize that could happen and no I’m not kicking a 4” snow out of bed. But we’ve had 9 years of epic suck. We’re due for a real run. And this pattern could do it. Let’s end this shit right now! Cash in all our “we’re due index” chips and put them on the damn table. It’s time.

If the GFS came out after the Euro/ggem/UK we wouldn’t even pay attention to it

It’s too far out for this

1.8, 1.2, .6

@HighStakes you need to move to the top of the mountain

HRRR at 24 hours is like the NAM at 84. Latest runs look more realistic. Unfortunately

Dundalk is the snow anus of Maryland. NPZ lives in the snow anus of VA in a shadow effect zone in the Shenandoah valley.

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray

Thanks. But it wasn’t all her fault. Don’t want to give that impression. I didn’t appreciate what we had enough. I let things that didn’t matter take up too much of my time and energy. I put things on auto pilot and lost her. I don’t know why. Why I had to lose it to see what was really important. But when I get another chance at something special I won’t make that mistake again.

Feel better?

Damn man. Hats off to you. I can’t argue with a single thing in this post. And I’m a debate coach.

Ok so basically once a decade if we get super lucky and time up a moderate modoki nino with a solar minimum it can still snow.

There were cold weeks in 2016. We even had several storms suppressed. One 6-10” snow missed us to the south! We had that clipper with temps in the teens. It’s just December and the warm weeks the rest of the winter wiped out the cold in the means. But what Chuck is talking about is a pattern that would flood the US with pac puke and make it hard to get snow even if we did luck into a perspective coastal. That happened in 2024. The snow we got that winter ironically came during the 2 weeks that were acting like a Nina and we lucked into some weak ass boundary waves. The rest of the winter was warm and wet and the track and timing of storms didn’t matter because there was no cold anywhere.

Ok dude don’t take this the wrong way because everything you said is a very valid concern. I’m not necessarily disagreeing. But if a cold enso is dry. And a warm enso is too warm. WTF do you think we should be rooting for to get an actual snowy winter next year. And by snowy I don’t mean we fight and eek and some lucky locations end up 3” above average. I mean an actually snowy fucking winter where the whole area ends up 125%+ snowfall. You know like used to happen once in a while. Sorry vent over. But ya. I see your valid concerns but what the hell are we even rooting for? We used to get snowy winters in a -PDO once in a while. It’s not supposed to be impossible.

We’re not going to get shut out. I was probably too optimistic. I leaned into the “we’re due” index too much. Apparently we’re still cursed. But we’re not going a whole winter without at least one decent snowstorm with the predominant winter pattern being this good. Not perfect but this years underlying features look nothing like the really bad snowless winters.

That’s the one I’m thinking about. And I had that exact same thought. There was one other that wouldn’t have been as big but might have been a 2-4” type snow had it been a little colder. But it was just so warm all winter that even when a perfect track wave came along it didn’t matter.

I appreciate it. Really. Yea the situation is probably making it harder. I see her 3 or 4 times a week. Exchanges or things we do together for the kids. I kept the house because the kids love it here. We do things that she used to be a part of. Camping trips. Ski trips. The beach. It’s hard to move on from something when you’re surrounded by it. It also doesn’t help that she is an amazing mom and wonderful person. So it’s not like I can hate her. Thanks. Yea I’ve given up on waiting for it to get any easier. Just had to learn to cope with what it is. It’s not as bad as this is probably making it sound. Most of the time I’m fine. I’m not miserable all the time or anything. But that memory hit me. Had a rough moment I guess.