psuhoffman

It was hard for me to tell, pacman ate the important pixels on my screen

Naw I'm all in on this one. That doesn't mean were all getting 20" or there is absolutely no way it could go wrong...but this one is different from all the others recently because the pattern supports this. This is what's supposed to happen. I've liked the pattern setup for this from way before any model showed anything like this. For a while I was wondering "why aren't the models showing solutions like this" given the pattern. When the pattern has major flaws I see them and point them out as reasons it might not happen, and often those flaws are. This time I am looking for reasons it will happen because the pattern is right.

I'm actually with you on this... this isn't the 90s anymore...the BIG ones dont just pop up and the whole "that's just where we want it" crap has never worked for us in the last 10 years. Around 150 hours out the models actually have done a pretty good job of getting fairly close to the right idea. That doesn't mean the details are perfect and you get the random hiccup runs and outliers you have to toss...but from 150 on in if you take the consensus of all the guidance its been pretty good at showing about what would happen with major systems.

Was this your "don't make me stop this car" speech?

This ones happening

@mitchnick don't let us down with the AI update

even the 50% snowfall is nuts It's been since 2016 that we saw these kinds of numbers from a single event at 5 days out. Yes I know this week at that range had similar totals but it was from multiple waves which is different.

It didn't used to be that way, used to come on more clean, something happened this year when its glitchy. There was another outlet, weathermodels or something like that with very similar graphics, might check that out after this season.

EPS!!!!!!!

I always look at the h5/mslp overlay first, when it got to about 120 I had a good feeling, the TPV lobe was disconnected from the Atlantic Vortex creating a weakness in between for it to amplify more...so I was expecting something good...but for some reason it then jumped to 150 hours, and I had to check to make sure I was looking at the right thing it was almost unbelievable. I didn't expect THAT

they look great... I'm not ignoring them, they support a more amplified solution for sure

+NAO

984 TUCKED off Delmarva

I know I'm probably behind, been actually working lol but if the surface looks anything like the h5 I just saw....HOLY FING SHIT!!!

GEM ens

Who has the UKMET ensembles?

Logically yes...but have you noticed this year whenever the op is not so good and we wait for the ensembles and take joy that they were better....the op has won! Talking about when were inside 150 hours not the crazy unicorn range stuff.

LOL at 6-12" being the floor for significant for DC. watch the news...6-12 flakes is significant. 6-12" is Armageddon

So far the ICON is SECS, GGEM and UKMET are MECS across our area. I expect the Euro to fall in line. Last night's run might have been overdone but maybe it repeats...remember the euro does tend to be the most amplified in this range.

I don't know what the official amounts for each are but this is what they mean and what I've always thought in my head as the range in the "meat" of such storms HECS Historic East Coast Storm 18" plus MECS Major 8-18" SECS Significant 4-8"

Damn we got some old cars up in here

sure but if so far the GFS showed a big snowstorm and then the GGEM and UKMET came in with a miss and the last euro was a miss...we would be feeling pretty bad right now. As long as the euro holds I feel good tossing the GFS.

Since I brought up 1996 I think I should point something out, which most of you know, but we have some in here who maybe do not.... Yes we have the potential for a BIG 12"+ event here...potential though. The reason I said a few days ago I would bet against a 12"+ event was simply playing the odds...they are very rare and require everything to come together perfectly. I think its good to root for the HECS or MECS+ (depending on what your bar for HECS is) type solutions...but don't but your bar at some crazy we need everything to go perfectly result just to be happy. 1996 could have ended up a 8-12" storm had it not phased perfectly and the arctic wave and STJ wave had stayed more disconnected which is what models showed all week leading in. That can happen. Messy phase, front runner escapes, dry slot... a 18" snowstorm takes more than just a perfect pattern (which I do think we have here) but it also takes all the details and variables to go absolutely perfect. That just doesn't happen often. All that to say...if we end up with a 6-10" snowstorm because all the 10 million things that need to come together to get a 20" snow didn't I am not going to let it ruin my enjoyment of this storm. When I dreamed up this period the analogs I was looking at had a lot of very nice snowstorms, but almost all of them were 6-12" type deals...not a lot of HECS, that was never actually on my mind. The fact maybe we have the upside of something like that if all goes well is awesome but I'm not raising my bar just to be let down.

It's basically a 8-14" snowstorm area wide. @Ji will be along to tell us why its awful and the biggest disaster in the history of of the world.

These are the most recent verification scores I found for day 5 H5 verification. ECMWF: .946 UKMET: .928 GGEM: .924 GFS: .919 The euro and UK have been 1 and 2 since about 2006 consistently. The GFS used to run 3rd but was overtaken by the GGEM after its major upgrade in 2022 and since the GGEM has been running consistently ahead (if only by a small margin) the GFS.