psuhoffman

yea this is what I mean in my last post...the GFS is a mess with that upper feature and stretches it out which deamplifies the flow under it. If it looks more like the Euro/GGEM I think we get a bigger storm.

It has a LOT more potential...look at the upper low to our NW...on the GFS is strung out and diffuse west to east over the top. That causes it to act more as a disruptor and blocking force rather than digging in and amplifying the wave. If that were to consolidate more around either lobe up there...preferable the further west one, that's how last nights Euro got it done...but either...get a more consolidated upper low that can amplify and cause ridging in front of it rather than stretch out and deamplify the flow...this would end up a bigger storm.

Maybe, but we are heading into the range where models have actually locked in on a general solution close to what the end result was. Obviously there will be some details that change but almost every event this year something close to the final outcome started to show across guidance around 140-150 hours out, then only fairly minor wobbles happened from then on it. I don't mind if they start to lock in on a mid atlantic MECS now...were not day 10+ anymore.

You know, NYC hated the 80s...and looking at the local snowfall stats for up here using the Westminster and Hanover COOP data... it was a worse decade up here compared to avg than in DC, kind of similar to this year. Not saying the 80's were awful, but there were a lot of winters in the 80's where DC and up here had almost the same snowfall totals which is rare otherwise considering I average more than double the snowfall...but it happened like 4 times that decade and even the years I had a lot more...none were crazy more like 2021 or 2014 when I got like 50 or 70 inches more than DC lol. There might be a lot to this...

@Ji this is kinda funny because over the last 5 years I've been the champion of how much warming is hurting our snow climo...and now this year I am defending against some who are acting like "we should be getting 100" of snow and its a horrible sign we aren't" but let me make the case why I DON'T see the need to panic over "wasting" this year... First of all we have not "wasted" it...we did get snow and we got weeks of snow on the ground and I think we are not done at all...but this is why I don't see this as a wasted year for a big snowfall result IAD has had 25"+ only 15 times in the last 50 years. Here is the breakdown 9 Nino years, 5 enso neutral, 1 Nina 1 time...once. one more than none, has IAD had 25" in a la nina in the last 50 years. And that one unicorn year 1996 had crazy blocking, not just for a few weeks but through most of winter...and a rare strongly positive PDO in a cold enso. No other cold enso years had that combo. And we don't have that this year so expecting that kind of anomaly again is foolish imo. The PDO came in around -1 for January, way better and I do see signs it may be flipping its base state some, maybe not to a positive cycle, but out of the mini super negative cycle we were in, those tend to run in 4-7 year patterns and we are due for that ish to end. But we are still in a negative PDO so this was not the setup for a blockbuster rare non nino big snowfall winter. It would have been unprecedented actually as in NEVER happened before, to get a cold enso -PDO blockbuster snowfall winter. Also, if we look at region wide true blockbuster winters, which I'll define as years that IAD and BWI got 30" and DCA got 20", we've only had 8 of those in the last 50 years. 8 in 50 years....that's how rare what you're asking for is, a region wide big snowfall year. Everything has to be right...not just a decently cold winter...we need the storm track, juiced up STJ, blocking...the whole works and then we still need to get lucky on top of that. It's super rare. This year we are lacking some factors all those others had. Only 1996 was a cold enso on that list and it had an anomalous PDO that offset the cold enso. We don't have that this year. I see getting a near normal to slightly above normal snowfall winter in most places as a win, its near the top of what the results were in similar winters. Actually if we look at cold enso with a -PDO, which eliminates 1996 and 2006, there is a good chance this ends up the snowiest winter of the last 50 years in that subset if we an just get one more good snowstorm for places NW of 95.

I'd rather it be centered there then right on top of us... the second issue is more cold enso common and why I keep saying in general not specific to any one setup, our high end on any given storm is probably high SECS to MECS and not HECS type events. We just don't typically get the juiced up amplified STJ waves that can bully their way across and attack the NS flow in cold enso seasons. We need more of the other variables to go our way, and even then storms tend to max out at MECS not HECS even if everything does go our way.

Cold but not crazy snowy winters are not historically uncommon at all. Especially in cold enso years. They’ve been uncommon lately because cold has been uncommon. But the fact we’ve struggled to ever be cold enough I think is making it feel like “we can’t afford to waste a cold winter with just avg snow” but historically that’s very very normal. Just because it’s warmer now doesn’t change that. I’ll agree if we get a central pac based moderate Nino in a +PDO we cannot afford to waste that. That’s a year we need 40”+ across the area. No excises. If we wasted a year like with a pacific setup like 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015… I’d be really really worried and upset. Those have to be blockbuster winters. A cold -enso with meh snowfall is just par for the course. But what is your bar? You’re acting like this year had big snow potential. It’s a cold enso. It’s a neural pdo at best, year better than the pdo hell we expected but it’s not a 1996 or 2014 type setup where we had an incredibly favorable pacific superimposed on the cold enso. This year we just had a mediocre pacific. Look at the best analogs to this season and cold isnt shocking. But most weren’t that snowy. The bar for this winter was always to get to near normal snow was a win. This year didn’t really scream 50” winter incoming.

I don’t feel like digging out my KU book but from memory I think it was like 1002mb when it passed off the VA capes and got down to about 996 off NJ. It want a deep low the snowfall was driven by good STJ moisture feed and good mid and upper level energy. Not a crazy deepening surface system

Rain snow line is further NW than that 83 storm on this particular run but I see the general similarities. Kinda like that storm just displaced a little NW.

I’m giving you a hard time because you implied I was down on the period because I said we probably wouldn’t get a 12”+ snow which was purely based on probabilities and how rare they are, and then the next run shows a 12” snowstorm…almost

Actually even with that storm I’d still be about 3” short of climo while places SE of 95 are already over climo but I’ll accept it lol. Just pointing out even if I get a 16” snow and places SE of 95 get rain they’re still having a better winter wrt climo. It’s been that lopsided. It has to even out eventually.

Sorry @Maestrobjwa it’s only 11.6”

There ya go @Ji Euro evens the score across our region in one day. That would get us all back to about where we should be wrt climo of that happened as this run shows. lol

Euro is super amped. Waiting to see if there is precip type issues but don’t care I want to see this amped up

It’s not uncommon for is to get meh snowfall in a cold enso season even with a good pattern. It’s so much easier for us when there are juiced up STJ waves coming at us contagious in a Nino. I’ll worry more if we waste a Nino with a favorable pacific.

What’s done is done. This coming pattern isn’t likely to make up for what’s already happened. We’re not in a Nino which limits how much of a heater we can get on. If we were in a moderate Nino I’d say ya sure let’s hope for some 20 days 50” snowstravaganza but those juts don’t happen in cold enso seasons. If we come out of the rest of winter with 10” that’s a win. Nothing will go back and give us the snow we didn’t get from past fails.

I was talking about the rainstorms tomorrow and this weekend. That’s not uncommon. Remember the rain we got the first week of blocking in Jan 2010 (when you made the famous complaining posts) Jan 2016 and Jan 2021. The SER doesn’t just instantly go away when a block forms. It takes a wave or two to knock it down. Yes we need the last week of Feb to produce. I think we also get some shots the first 10 days of March. But yea we’re running out of time. Dunno why you think they look awful. I mean the gfs and ggem are cow farts away from a decent snowstorm. There’s a wave right there we just need it to amp up a little.

It’s not an instant magic pattern fix. There’s a SER due to the pacific this week. That usually gets fixed a week after a block starts. The block peaks the next 3 days yes but it just started yesterday. We need more than just a block. The first week a block develops is rarely good because they often start in phase 7 of the mjo which is hostile. Need to wait for phase 8. That’s when we usually get snow.

They teased us tonight and euro said no. Until the euro shows anything not buying it.

I said this same thing yesterday. No it’s not. The epo and Scandi blocks just linked up within the last 24 hours. The Mjo just left 6 into 7 which is common for the initiation of blocking. But until the forcing gets into the central pacific it’s hostile for us because the western pac promotes a SER which in what we have. This is why the weak blocking develops is almost always not good for snow. December 2009, January 2010, January 2016, March 2018, Jan 2021… all those -3stdv+ blocks we had rainstorms the week the block formed because we had a SER at the initiation of blocking and had to wait a week to get the trough into the east. That’s common. Yesterday’s snow was just dumb luck in an epo pattern. Like the wave some parts of the area we got in March 2022 or Feb 2018 or Feb and March 2019 in similar patterns. But way more often in those same epo patterns then waves don’t work out. But if you spend long enough in an epo pattern eventually you get some snow. But it’s not a path to a big snow (at least not NW of DC) or a big snow season. 2014 being the one unicorn anomaly of our lifetime. The favorable period for snow is a few days after the mjo gets into phase 8 and as the block fades and even after it’s gone so long as the pacific forcing remains favorable in phases 8-3. I should admit my disdain for epo patterns is location dependent. It’s not a fluke that in a period where almost all our snow has been from epo pattern waves that neither MD is getting bad results. That’s climo. EPO wave patterns are awful for up here. Snow anomaly maps for those patterns show that they are above normal snow for southeast of 95 but below normal for NW of 95. I’ve noticed a tendency for amplified waves in an epo pattern to cut north of us and non amplifying waves to affect the southern mid atl and there ends up a dead zone right across this area. The period I am excited for is a more amplified pattern after the blocking is established matured and fading and the pacific forcing is in 8-3 with a trough in the east. The pattern starts around Feb 18. The Feb 20 threat is the first of the pattern I am talking about. I was never excited by this epo pattern before that.

Do you realize Baltimore has only had 20 12"+ stormstorms EVER...in over 135 years of records... We sometimes go decades without one. Anything that rare takes a lot more than just a very good pattern...it also takes a whole lot of luck. On top of that a large percentage of them have come in Nino years...making it even less likely in a nina, again no matter how good the pattern is. I have not changed my opinion of the pattern...but if we get a 6-10" snowstorm that is a win. If we get an 8" and 4" snow during the period...that is a win. We can't undo the past...if you are expecting this period to make up for the last 8 years or all the snow we got fringed with this winter...you are setting yourself up for disapointment. I said its a very favorable pattern and we have a good chance at snowstorms and I still feel that way, I never said I think we will get a HECS.

More amplified wave, slightly more suppressive flow. If the flow relaxes as the wave propagates east it’s better but no way to know that.

It’s actually more amplified but has a wider spread of solutions so less concentrated snow mean

Got to love ya. Only you would look past a cold pattern that hasn’t even started yet to the next possible torch.

I don’t think we get a 12”+ event. That’s asking a lot in a Nina even in a good pattern. But I think there is a “decent” chance we can pull off a more widespread 6-10 type storm. I think there is a good chance we can get a 3-6 type deal or some combo of multiple events in those ranges.