psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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better at 51
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its snourther
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at 51 the whole flow is flatter out west also, this is less amped so far (NAM can go nuts in a hurry so not reading into what happens later yet), the initial WAA is directed in a better trajectory also.
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on approach the high is a little south in the midwest, SLIGHTLY less confluence ahead but so minor I don't think that matters much, slightly flatter flow out west (good) but better organized system (also good IMO because we might get a thumpier thump before a flip).
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The confluence over top of us is very important...in about 48 hours...not 12 or 24 hours...as whatever it is then will be gone by the time the storm is here...at those time ranges what is happening to our NW is more important actually than super tiny minor differences in the height fields over top of us way ahead of the storm.
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The EPS 25-75% doesn't look far off from what @MillvilleWx has been saying all along ETA: Keep in mind this is pure 10-1 so in the NW zones these numbers would be underdone a little
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I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output
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EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood. The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5" This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6". There are less disaster members with under 6". The 50% did drop from 11 to 9" and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs.
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I'm not sure we want that... if you disregard the GFS pretty much everything else is about the same in terms of when we lose the mid level thermals...between 15-21z depending on where you are south to north. So we want as much precip before that as possible...
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TT does also but won't have it updated for another 2 hours probably
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it ends up speeding back up...in the end it simply trended further NW, primary hangs on longer...looks kinda like last nights GGEM
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yea there's that too lol It's just one data point...just one run of one model...but the AIFS trend is not good... 24 hours ago when it was showing what we wanted we were rightfully pointing out how good it's been and that having it on our side was a big deal...so losing it to the more amplified NW camp is not what we want. But again...it's just one piece of evidence not the whole show... if the op euro and EPS come in good that would outweigh the significance some.
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AIFS trend
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It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend
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Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM.
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AIFS is not a disaster...but over the last 24 hours it went from being one of the best solutions to now maybe the worst at 12z. Its 8-9" for DC and Baltimore...about 10" up here. Jack zone shifted quite a bit to our NW. Looks similar to GGEM with track and thermals
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12z AIFS is significantly NW and warmer...
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Just one damn time...
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This... I mentioned this after Mitch posted the 6z UK ensembles...the UKMET 10-1 snow maps counts sleet as snow so they are inflated on the southern end. Can't compare them to other models that don't do that...it gives the false impression the UK is further south than it is...if you just look at those maps...which you shouldn't anyways
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I've been using that storm as a guide here but displaced 75 miles south or so...very similar but the thermal boundary is a little further south this time.
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The GFS doesn't see mid level thermals as well as the Euro or NAM...that is a known thing
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It definitely won't see the mid level warm layers as well as the euro/nam when we get closer... but could it be correct about a less amplified system? Sure. Would I stake anything I care about on it...no.
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mod to heavier precip would be I would think...light stuff mix but who cares. We know the drill
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GFS is noise level changes...as close to a "hold" run as you will ever see at this range
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I was somewhat giving you a hard time...but Frederick is in a shadow zone between the Catoctins and Parrs Ridge and doesn't do as much better than places closer to 95 as you would think. Places closer to DC and Baltimore like Damascus and Mt Airy actually do better.
