psuhoffman

I think this is topical, the only way you're seeing any positive signs of snow is if you are on some pretty good drugs right now. Plus...as some have said, it is time to explore other previously unexplored factors and possible causes. Have we considered drugs? Maybe the right drugs could open up a window to some kind of shared consciousness where by we can actually control the weather. If snow weenies unite we could fix this!

You might be seeing the giant tomato worms because of the wrong drugs

depends on the drugs

And what are we supposed to do with that? So like 5% of the time the day 12 of the op GFS is actually right. Without knowing when that 5% is how is that even remotely useful? Should I post all the times its ridiculously wrong at day 12? Seriously what exactly is the point of this post?

Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england?

A freeze thaw cycle can be good so long as it’s sunny and gets into the 40s. I had a great day at Killington last March that started in the 20s but they had a high in the mid 40s. By 10am south facing slopes softened up nice and by noon all slopes were soft.

At this point you might want to root for warmer... spring skiing up there can be awesome. Soft snow, light jacket...what you don't want is a cold front after a warm up and you get a sheet of ice. I just hope they have enough base to make it to April. I got some good news from the MRI on my knee but even if rehab goes well I won't be able to get out there until April. In a typical year April is my favorite month up in Vermont and Maine actually...but it looks so freaking warm up there the next 2 weeks with possible big rain events...I wonder if they will have much base left by then. ETA: To explain, with the rain coming up there it would take a LOT of snow to actually cover the ice base that would develop if it gets cold again. They would need to make or get at least 18" to actually have good skiing conditions again. A lot of the snow initially would just blow or get skiid off the trails with hard ice under it. Following a thaw like that it typically takes 2 feet before conditions are good again. So your better bet is to root for it to stay warm and get nice soft spring slush.

Somewhere is an alternative universe where water freezes at 50 degrees

I can think of one example where a Canada ridge was undercut and lifted to link with a retrograding ridge from Scandi. You’re right Dec 2009 is the more common progression except in a strong Nino. Several other of our strong Nino blocks came about from a lifting Canada ridge linking with a retro scandi ridge. The bigger issue is I agree with you that the guidance is probably being fooled again. Through day 10-15 it’s relying on pattern progression but as it gets further out it’s increasingly saying “I see a -QBO, weak ass SPV, strong Nino, let’s go canonical pattern look for those drivers”. But as we’ve seen time and again other factors the guidance isn’t properly weighting is running interference. Odds are the same thing is happening again. The only reason I give it any chance is the current SPV collapse in progress. I think there was even a wind reversal already with some guidance suggesting a second in a few days! The timing of which would correlate with a block in mid March. But we’ve seen that fail too this winter so… Honesrly I’m humbled (and currently trashed) at this point. I really thought the Nina pac base state would mute the super Nino some and result in a canonical moderate Nino pattern. Instead what we actually got was the fucking worst traits of a Nina and Nino. At this point I’ve called uncle and have no expectations but march is crazy and the SPV just collapsed so im leaving a crack open for something to surprise me.

It better be epic

You’re right, recent history suggests we should be optimistic

The eps had like 3 runs over 5 days where it did advertise a Scandi ridge progression. Gfsx never really did. This time both have it. It’s not the strongest signal ever but I see it. I don’t see as much wave breaking. Last time guidance developed multiple strong Atlantic lows before the block. This time the -nao comes before the Atlantic lows. Im extremely skeptical it comes about. Guidance also had the December and January blocking coming about that way and both those times it ended up being more wave breaking and unstable and quickly broke down. That could happen again. Or we could get the block and it’s too warm like last March. Im with you wet skepticism we get a favorable pattern. But I do think the current looks on the eps and gfsx have a slightly better progression than last time. ETA: the eps has already been kicking the can a few days lately. Its very likely its doing the same “-QBO Nino lets snow the typical pattern” crap it did all 2019 and this year.

La Niña

FWIW the blocking on long range guidance evolve form heat fluxes initially assoxiated with Scandinavian ridging. This is a more common and stable way to get blocking than the wave breaking attempt earlier this month. I am well aware of the climo limitations we will face in late March.

This is where I am, but apparently some are now saying the PDO is permanent due to lower SO2 lol

Ironic given my last post above, but just went to check the overnight runs on Wxbell and saw JB made a post and was curious...he pretty much just said the same things I've been saying the last few days wrt what went wrong. I am critical of JB a LOT so its only fair I point it out, begrudgingly. Other than the volcano and anti CC agenda stuff he forces into every one of his posts...the rest of it I agreed with. His analysis of the PDO/MJO/Nina base state and how it impacted the Nino is pretty much the same conclusions I came to wrt why I got this winter wrong. The fact I made the same mistakes as JB means now I need to go rethink my life.

December did have more a canonical nino pattern, which is why early on I was still very optimistic for the winter despite the snowless early returns. The problem is in a strong nino December is typically warm/snowless anyways. The only exceptions are weaker or modoki nino's where the pacific trough is displaced west of normal for a nino and so we get a better PNA ridge. Even in the past it's always been difficult for us to overcome any deficiencies in the pacific until January. Our snowfall in December is more highly correlated to getting BOTH an ideal Atlantic High latitude AND pacific patterns. If you look at all the strong nino analogs even on the snowier side of the list...1958, 1966, 1987 and 2016, none had any snow in December except 1958 which had one fluke snowstorm in an otherwise torch month. The others were all snowless and warm. The issue is when the nino would have helped us it decoupled some in January. It ended up kind of a hybrid with both nino and nina tendencies. The stronger than normal ridging west of the nino trough was an issue. It continually pushed the nino trough east of ideal. The nino trough was NOT out of control like 1973 and 1998. It was not nearly the strength of a super nino trough. But it was displaced east so that it had the same impact on our pattern because of the nina like ridging further west in the pacific. We got a half and half winter, the problem is we got the worst half of both a nina and nino! Yay us.

And it induced this long wave pattern. The mjo can’t do anything about the fact the surface temps torched right through this period anyway.

I mean this a long range discussion. Just super duper long range.

I’ve read that the reduction of SO2 may have increased warming due to increased sunlight. But is there evidence it’s somehow contributing to the PDO? If so isn’t that extremely bad since we’re establishing a -pdo has become pretty hostile to snow here and that seems like a more permanent thing!

The persistent AK trough is also not very Nino ish. That’s more a weak Nina or neutral after a Nina look.

It failed similarly but for different reasons. 98 the Nino pac trough was a beast and extended east because the Nino was very easy based and strong. This year the pac trough was weaker, more in line with a typical Nino, more transient but it kept getter pushed east by Nina ish central pac ridging and displaced into the pna domain.

if he still has the same habits...right before he finally capitulates he will go silent for a while...a day or two will go by with no posts or videos...and then he will issue an angry incoherent crazy rant about how he put so much work into it and this or that just didn't go right and you have to be humble and god this and god that and how grateful he is for his family as if the MF just went through some personal tragedy.

I’ve given up on anything much in this -pdo. Yea we will keep getting some snow. Table scraps. But this is it. But can you imagine if this continues after the PDO flips? We better get a snowy winter quick after the PDO goes positive or it will be real depressing.

Here are some things I have thoughts on...some of them I agree with you on, some I do not. I'm trying to have a cordial friendly conversation though. No need for the hostility just because I missed one of your posts a few days ago. Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10. The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply.. If you are referring to NWP here and the tendency for the globals to increase resolution, especially the euro lately, I agree. As they have increased resolution they have increased variability. The are technically more accurate now globally. But they can be inconsistent run to run and with less predictable biases. For me, in some cases, they were easier to use before the resolution increases. They might have biases and be off but I could predict how they were off and adjust for them. That made them more useful than when they go off on tangents run to run. But they sacrificed consistency at longer leads for being able to better model details at shorter leads. Wasn't my choice. Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition There are attempts at this right now, but they are new and it will take a little time to develop. I've been following some of the AI models and they have not been awful, especially considering how new they are, basically first generation. They have had some successes. But they have had some bad failures too this winter. They were still holding onto the storm for later this week for instance for days after the old school models realized it was going to be way too warm. I hope they can develop this tool, I have absolutely no issue with using AI analog based methodology, it just wasn't available until now. I do use analog forecasting when a threat is upon us. I look at the CIPS analogs all the time and they inform how I adjust what the models are showing in my forecasts. Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way. Lord knows plenty buy into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. I don't have the resources to research any of that. I can read the research others are doing though. As of yet no reputable study has found a significant long term influence from any of those factors except one...the cows lol. I didn't do any of that research. But I balk at two things... the idea that climate change is some politically fueled agenda is first. The research showing warming was done before there was politics about it. The politics came later as different parties took sides and money interests aligned itself with those sides. IMO some are putting the cart before the horse here. The other issue I have is that we have to consider every possible theory before they are proven. That is not how it works. When someone comes up with a new theory that goes against the status quo it is up to them to prove it. The burden of proof is on the person proposing a new theory. We don't start from a place of every possible theory is true until you disprove it. So I have no first hand knowledge that the 32" change in the Earths axis during our lifetime has or hasn't changed our climate. But I've seen absolutely no evidence or study proving that it has and so until that evidence is provided the status quo is that it hasn't. I am willing to consider it has. If someone conducts a study that proves it has, I can accept that. But you seem to be asking me to accept these possibilities without any proof. I don't think incorporating unproven speculation about every possible theory into my forecasts will increase their accuracy. How would I even do that? Ive seen nothing about how these things impacted climate in a tangible way. So back in October when I was formulating my winter forecast exactly how could I have incorporated the change in the Earths axis or tidal waves? Is there some research saying how I could adjust our snowfall climo for these variables that I have not seen? If I am missing something I am open to seeing it and considering it. Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements so are you saying you're not going to issue seasonal forecasts anymore? My question was about how to make long range analysis better and you pretty much said "don't do it". That isn't getting better that's giving up. I want to get better not give up. This seems to imply your problem is that the long range thread exists at all. You don't want us to improve on it you want us to get rid of it? If so...why not just not go in there and then for you it doesn't exist and others that do want to discuss long range can do so? Honest question.