psuhoffman

The fact it’s been crazy warm lately and the oceans are all on fire might have nothing to do with our snow drought that’s getting worse at exactly the same time as it’s getting warmer. We just can’t know.

Another example. yea look at that trough off the west coast extending up into NW Canada blasting pac puke into the conus. I get there is no way we could get snow because…oh wait sorry that’s March 58! The difference is the waters weren’t as warm so pax puke was less puky.

There is a trough in the east there with a strong storm. Here is the h5. Just not cold enough. and yes there is a less than ideal pacific pattern. Yea that’s why it’s not cold enough. Yes it could still snow if everything was perfect. The question is how perfect? At some point if you need it to be more and more perfect to be cold enough it just becomes increasingly unlikely.

Here’s an example. Last nights euro control developed a monster block. 50/50. Tracks a wave under us, h5 through VA, slp off Delmarva and…

I’ve had quite a few big March storms in the last 15 years. They were all slightly too warm for 95. Is that bad luck or…

I honestly tried. It’s clear you don’t want a productive dialogue.

Anyone can post anytime they want

One of these years…

Hard to say since last time it got all the way to day 7 before a spectacular collapse. Last time the trouble started imo with changes in the pacific. It started to develop a ridge in the central pacific which shifted everything north and east and disrupted the whole downstream pattern. But we already have that ridge now. I guess if we see signs it won’t actually weaken or quickly redevelops that would be the dagger.

@WEATHER53 It’s hard to have a productive dialogue or any back and forth with you. You pose questions then ignore when someone responds and bull ahead asking it again and again. Just yesterday you asked about why we don’t discuss clippers and I replied and said we have had that discussion lately and even summarized it and then you just ask again. You get frustrated and act agitated when someone challenges you and instead of defending your position and having a productive exchange with them and offering evidence you often get belligerent. You keep railing about model hugging but this thread has mostly been about long range forecasting which is 90% analog based. We’ve been discussing indexes we use in identifying analogs like the PDO and enso but you keep going on this crusade about models. There are like 5 seasonal forecast threads posted in here including mine and I don’t think any of them cited models as a major part of those forecasts. We look at the super long range models FOR FUN but no one bases their monthly or seasonal forecasts on them when we know they have almost no skill at all! I asked you how to improve long range and your first suggestion was “don’t focus on 7+” ok how do I make a seasonal long range forecast and not focus on past 7 days? That’s not helpful. I’ve been trying hard to give you the benefit of the doubt and have a dialogue with you but you don’t seem to want that.

The best is when in a Nina like 2018 he uses a bunch of analogs like 2001 and 2011 that missed our area with snow but he predicts above normal snow here anyways.

2008

@Jitodays weeklies sped up the progression by about 48 hours. Not shocking as guidance took a turn yesterday. It’s almost back to where it was 5 days ago. Not quite, still maybe 1-2 days slower than a week ago.

The irony is even if he is right about his crazy theories like underwater volcanoes and water vapor (that one is redundant) the effect is the same less snow.

He spent 20 years cultivating a conservative snow weenie base audience.

I was thinking that too

We know the PDO talk is just speculative. But it’s unlikely to flip positive heading into a Nina.

We just can’t know

Have to wait and see what the PDO looks like next fall.

It is and if I was to eventually get there it would probably be April. But the issue is spring skiing is pretty good up in Vermont and Maine also so I tend to just drive up there for a weekend in April and May, its not worth going out west at that point.

One of the reasons I've never been to Tahoe is they get too much snow. They are extremely unreliable if you are planning a trip ahead of time because they can go a month with no snow at all then get 100" in a few days and everything shuts down while they clear roads and do avalanche mitigation. Too much risk and headache. Frankly SLC is getting to be too much of a headache lately with limited parking at some resorts and huge lines getting up the Canyons...starting to prefer other locations that are less of a hassle. Colorado almost never lets me down.

Thanks, if not at least I did get a few pretty good days in earlier this season. Finally got to Taos this season, loved that mountain and the town is awesome. If you are an art fan or foodie it's amazing.

Unfortunately it can be summed up with “We’re F’d”

That’s the first wave that undercuts the eastern ridge as it starts to lift and merge with the Scandinavian ridge. Again this time the nao starts to go negative before the wave breaking. Doesn’t mean it’s right just a slightly different progression. It’s being acted on by heat fluxes on two sides this time. Normally I’d say the first wave isn’t the one. But March can be funny so who knows. EPS and gefs still have the progression overnight. I am itching to pull the trigger on this winter as soon as they give me any excuse but the last couple runs have actually left a glimmer of hope.

and the gfs goes all in with a pattern change by day 12 lol