psuhoffman

This thread is unpinned because it was replaced with a new thread for Late Feb/March. But they don't reclassify or delete the threads, they just unpin them and let them slowly die. It will drop down the list of threads as people stop posting in it. But it remains there to be searched and referenced if anyone ever wants to look at it in the future.

The 12z EPS was...the weeklies are based on the 0z run which was worse so.... make of that what you will. But regardless of one good 12z run the trend on the whole has been not good the last 5 days. Decide for yourself what you want to weight more...one 12z run but admitedly the latest guidance...or a 5 day trend.

if the PDO actually did flip it would change the calculation significantly on next winter. BUT....it would be incredibly rare for the PDO to actually flip heading into a Nina. It's more common for a Nina to cause a temporary -PDO even in a +PDO cycle. So while there are signs of this -PDO waning I would caution expecting it to actually flip positive. What might be more realisic is if the Nina causes the trend to halt and we get a near neutral or slightly -PDO next winter. THat would still be better than a crazy -PDO but not great. 2017 and 2018 were near neutral PDO years...that would be what we might expect if we get a near neutral PDO. However....IF, super duper emphasis on the if, we do flip the PDO and its legit positive next winter this would be the data on that... It's pretty rare, have to go all the way back to 1900 just to get 9 examples... but here is the data In a positive PDO Nina Baltimore averages 27" of snow and the median is 23" and of the 9 examples none were total duds, the least snow was 10", the next worst was 14", the rest were at least 17" or more with a few being well above normal snowfall with 1996 being the high end example. A positive PDO nina is rare but actually not nearly as bad as a -PDO nina. I would have to seriously rethink my expectations if we see the PDO flip positive. Again not just to near neutral but actually positive. But I have serious doubts given the rarity of that in a nina cycle. And man if we do get a +PDO and then we get a dreg snowless winter anyways...man this place will be a train wreck, not sure I'm ready to "find out" lol

I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot.

He is just trying to stall to milk as many more monthly subs as he can. He knows. A few days ago he made a post admitting what wEnt wrong and he said all the same things we’ve been discussing here. Maybe he reads this! But then he immediately goes it this time will be different. Yea ok. Right. Plus even if it is he knows it’s too late for 95 to get much snow. He is trying to bilk people out of more $ that’s all.

I mean we could get a freak snowstorm next year. Nothing is 100% in this game. But if you forced me to bet money I’d go 4 years before 2.

When I was in competitive debate i hated when it went to the judges with any doubt. It was more satisfying when I left the opposition so completely defeated that they were an emotionally unstable train wreck either literally crying or screaming in incoherent rage and the only question was how lopsided the ballot would be.

My motivation isn’t caring what they think…

2027

I pointed out the day 15-16 ensembles today started to show a possible pattern change. But it’s also true guidance is can kicking and we can’t afford that at all. It’s probably already too late honestly. eps March 15 5 runs ago March 15 now Yea it still gets to the same place but now it takes until March 22 to get to where it was March 15 a few days ago.

Except the atmosphere is warming from the ground up which actually increases the gradient vertically which can increase the jet and interfere with blocking. And it’s not a 1:1 thing. The compression of the jets imo outweighs the warming of the polar vortex. It might be a weaker vortex but if it has a screaming zonal jet around it it’s not going to buckle and that will artificially enhance it and offset the warming.

Me, no. But some in here think warming is debatable, somehow thermometers are subjective tools in their reality, so it’s worth pointing it out.

I agree that the PDO is a cyclical issue and not CC. We’ve had PDO cycles like this before in the 50s and early 70s and they both sucked too, relative to those periods base state. But some of the other factors like the MC forcing and expanded circulation and north shift in the jet I’m more skeptical. Some of that seems a logical common sense effect of warming. But what do I know. We had an argument in here 2 nights ago that maybe the last 8 years were actually snowy. I mean the actual data says it was the least snowy period ever. But so what, apparently that is debatable.

Wouldn’t the expanded Hadley cell explain. If the jet is shifted north in the pacific the compression of the flow between the subtropical, polar, and arctic jets in the pacific speeds them up. Its also shifting the NS north. Add in the -pdo Nina base state that puts a ridge in the east more often. That’s a bad combo for getting a trough deep enough to get a clipper here. Doesn’t seem like a mystery to me.

we have plenty of tools

I don’t think the guidance was seeing the western pacific heat surge. They had it but much weaker than it ended up being. Around Feb 10 suddenly 2 things changed. The MJO wave suddenly died and started showing signs of competing convection in bad places again. And the western pacific ridge started to go nuts. That ended up progressing into a Nina like ridge and completely destroyed the pacific pattern. That combo also shifted the jet north suddenly which killed the nao also. The wave that was supposed to end up in the 50/50 space instead ended up north in the nao space. The super crazy 50/50 turned into a +nao lol. Why the guidance missed those 2 things i don’t know. I’ve heard people say they weight canonical historical response to the Nino too much at range and that makes sense except I don’t know if that’s actually true.

Sure. focus on the progression from the NAO back to the North Pacific. The Nina ridge is finally weakening and progressing. Look at the vacuum it’s leaving near the Aleutians at the end. Note the height tides in central Canada as the NAO goes negative. If that day 15 is correct, big if, the AK vortex will start to shift west as the Pac ridge vacates. It’s been acted on by the ridging developing in Canada. Without that Nina ridge there it will want to shift west. It’s about 48 hours away from looking like the weeklies there. Maybe even ahead by a day. Again I have no idea if that is correct. Last time the pattern change got all the way to like day 8 then collapsed. Just saying the ensembles today are showing early signs of the pattern change the weeklies are showing that’s all.

EPS also started to show signs at the end.

I can’t keep track of the discussions sometimes. Doesn’t matter other than our convo there was like 2 posts in here in the last 24 hours. day 15-16 there are signs of the pac finally shifting. It’s very preliminary if the ridge is weakening and the AK trough shows signs of weakening and shifting. It’s way out there. We will see.

That 2002 is a much stronger AK vortex though with more conus ridging. So was 1998. So were the other examples. Again I’m NOT saying it shouldn’t be warm. But it’s taking less to cause crazy torch patterns anymore.

They still happen. They just hit Vermont. The NS is too far north.

Are you reading a different forum then I am? We’ve been discussing the death of clippers a lot! At least 3 times this winter that discussion came up. And it’s some of the same reasons I just discussed for the lack of coastals. The jet being displaced north. There are still clippers but they hit Vermont now. The northern streak is too far north for us to get those. As for why…we’ve theorized the expanded Hadley cell, Nina base state and MJO in the pacific. But I’m open to other factors if you have a different theory.

I got a minor knee scope and a cortisone shot now I’m pushing my rehab hard in hopes I can save my season. My target date is Easter weekend. April is my favorite month anyways up at Killington, Stowe, Sugarbush and Sugarloaf. It’s ambitious but they said not impossible if I wear the bulky knee brace and have no set backs.

That was actually what I expected to do. I was having lunch and decided to look over the guidance expecting to call it. 0z looked like crap. I had my finger on the trigger then 12z looked better at the end. Ugh. But I’m ready. Any delay. And back off first hiccup and I’m pulling the trigger.

Today’s GEFS and GEPS actually are progressing things. The Atlantic shifts before the pac but at day 16 they’re showing signs of the Nina ridge weakening and first signs of the AK vortex shifting. It would happen quickly. With the -nao if the Nina ish pac ridge weakens that vortex in AK would retrograde quickly. It would probably split with a price dropping into the gulf if AK and another pulling west. That’s how the long wave pattern forcing would want it to go if not for the heat ridge to its west. So if that actually does come off it would happen quick. I still don’t know if it’s real or another head fake. Today was the day I was going to pull the plug if the pattern didn’t start to progress into the ensembles. And damnit it did. I was kinda wanting to just end this thing and call TOD. I’ve kinda moved on to other things. But obviously if a threat shows up I’ll track it.