psuhoffman

Why you F'ing with them like this?

The simple answer is the ULL is acting like a kicker instead of a pinwheel to amplify the flow in front of it. Bob pointed it out a few days ago and I didn't want to see it. The ULL got "too much" of the TPV cold pool and its acting like a PV not an ULL. Too much of a good thing... we don't expect to get a snowstorm with a TPV sitting over Ohio...if you want to think about it that way. Had the ULL that broke off from the main TPV been a little less overpowering we probably are getting a MECS this week.

This http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html and I know that event missed down here...it was CLOSE here I got like an inch but missed some places that got 8" just northeast of me. But this ULL is crossing further south...so if something like that were to happen it would be further south this time. I am NOT saying its likely. Its not. 99/100 times that will NOT happen. But that was totally unpredicted and unforseen and some places got 10" that had flurries in the forecast a few hours before.

Actually, I've become that guy in the weather center who was dismissing me back in January 2000 when I was trying to get him to look at a WV loop and show him "somethings not right" and he was just not interested saying "the models are not going to be that wrong 24 hours out".

And here we go

Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol

Every time the Eagles have won the super bowl its been on a weekend! Crazy right

don't start that shit again

You're just "done" and I totally get it.

The extreme to which the TPV got displaced this week actually lead to a pinwheel of the whole pattern and a temporary break for a few days before everything cycles around again. I did not, nor could anyone really, have seen that coming. But the warm few days is just a temporary thing in the larger cold period as things reshuffle.

Don’t we want it too amplified at that range?

It never left. I was focused on the threat in front of us and didn’t want to engage with the “the sky is falling” takes because we got a temporary relax for a few days. I get it. It’s toward the end of winter so every day lost is magnified.

I know but no one’s in the mood. They’ll be back though as soon as some run inside 100 hours shows 6”

as you wish

God damnit

one more knife

Ok now it’s trolling me

I’d be super excited if I was in SC

Looks great to me @mitchnick lol this winter isn’t letting us go without more pain.

From a probabilistic pov this is 100. It’s true of every snow scenario. The number of permutations that produce snow are way less than the ones that don’t. Basically we need a storm to track trough a 100 sq mile box to get snow. The no snow permutations are the whole rest of the planet lol

Now that’s one for my book if it’s rain

I'm not sure that is all that unusual. If you look at our snoweist periods historically they don't typically have a PV hanging around close to us, which is also why our snowiest periods arent crazy cold either. Problem is the only time weve been cold enough to snow lately is with a PV close...I really don't want to get into this right now.

Can't disagree... just want to throw out that in seasons that had a definitive "trend" (not all do) March was the most likely month to get an anomaly that broke the snowfall norms of that season.