psuhoffman

Looks good for VA beach

Shame it actually looks and feels like a big snow is coming out. Probably because the upper low is so far NW there is a good amount of moisture streaming way NW of the low. It’s not the typical smoking cirrus look.

What you talking bout. 38” or bust!

I honestly thing our best chance at a surprise snow now is something crazy with the ULL pass

nothing good...see all the convection exploding down in the gulf...that's NOT what we want...the flow is not amplified enough to get a storm up the coast that starts out way off the southeast coast...what we needed, was to see the precip associated with the wave along the front up in the TN valley amplifying. If we were going to get some big shocker one of 2 things had to happen...the models had to be totally wrong about that gulf wave starving the TN valley wave of moisture inflow and have that TN valley wave amplify unexpectedly some and maybe down the line that pulls things further north with a better energy transfer point. That is now dead. The only show left now would be for somehow there to be an unforseen phase and the storm to bomb up the coast Jan 2000 style. Good luck with that, we got our once a century bust like that already.

If it's the storm I am thinking of it was February 2013, a saturday night yes, and we got like 3.5" in about an hour from it.

I think we got enough -PNA the last 5 years for the rest of my life

I think some of that snow was actually from another small event a couple days before that...then maybe 1-2" was from the ULL thing the night before. We had a lot of minor snows that year...it was soooo annoying...really cold for a lot of that winter but just couldn't get any storm to jack us. One of my least favorite winters ever. Kinda similar to this one lol

this is you right now

Why you F'ing with them like this?

The simple answer is the ULL is acting like a kicker instead of a pinwheel to amplify the flow in front of it. Bob pointed it out a few days ago and I didn't want to see it. The ULL got "too much" of the TPV cold pool and its acting like a PV not an ULL. Too much of a good thing... we don't expect to get a snowstorm with a TPV sitting over Ohio...if you want to think about it that way. Had the ULL that broke off from the main TPV been a little less overpowering we probably are getting a MECS this week.

This http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html and I know that event missed down here...it was CLOSE here I got like an inch but missed some places that got 8" just northeast of me. But this ULL is crossing further south...so if something like that were to happen it would be further south this time. I am NOT saying its likely. Its not. 99/100 times that will NOT happen. But that was totally unpredicted and unforseen and some places got 10" that had flurries in the forecast a few hours before.

Actually, I've become that guy in the weather center who was dismissing me back in January 2000 when I was trying to get him to look at a WV loop and show him "somethings not right" and he was just not interested saying "the models are not going to be that wrong 24 hours out".

And here we go

Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol

Every time the Eagles have won the super bowl its been on a weekend! Crazy right

don't start that shit again

You're just "done" and I totally get it.

The extreme to which the TPV got displaced this week actually lead to a pinwheel of the whole pattern and a temporary break for a few days before everything cycles around again. I did not, nor could anyone really, have seen that coming. But the warm few days is just a temporary thing in the larger cold period as things reshuffle.

Don’t we want it too amplified at that range?

It never left. I was focused on the threat in front of us and didn’t want to engage with the “the sky is falling” takes because we got a temporary relax for a few days. I get it. It’s toward the end of winter so every day lost is magnified.

I know but no one’s in the mood. They’ll be back though as soon as some run inside 100 hours shows 6”

as you wish

God damnit