psuhoffman

I'm more confident in that part...but without the pacific altering it won't be cold enough, and that part of the equation I am less confident.

we will know soon, the pattern change on the extended guidance is now only about 12-24 hours outside the range of the GEFS and EPS. They still look pretty identical at day 16 but the EPSX and GEFSX within 24 hours after quickly shift the AK trough westward and begin developing a +PNA, this is in conjunction with the merger of the canada and scandinavian ridges into a -NAO. If we don't start to see it show up tomorrow on the ensembles...I think its safe to assume its likely another extended guidance mirage.

It’s not that I’m not nervous about this. I’ve seen some things that bother me. There were times people were using the pacific as a blanket scapegoat and I pointed out at times we had the exact opposite long wave configuration yet the SER remained! But our last +pdo it snowed plenty. On the whole 2014-2018 was extremely snowy. So we have no evidence yet that a pos pdo has been affected by this recent tendency.

IMO it’s an intentional game. It’s a strategy to drown out a topic some don’t like. It’s the same thing each time. A harmless post about warming usually topically relates to the thread gets made. There are a few valid back and forth harmless replies. Then the same crew shows up and starts a damn fight about whether we should be talking about it. They intentionally make a huge mess of the thread. Then they say “look at this mess, see we can’t talk about this”. And the end result is they force the mods to come in and squash the discussion. And this makes them feel their ridiculous ass backwards stance is validated. They could (and they frankly do in other places) do this with almost anything. It’s a legit tactic, if an incredibly disingenuous one. What if they decide the nfl is too political and throw a fit like this in off topic when we discuss that? Why let them manipulate and bully the narrative this way?

The experts cant even seem to agree

@Ji the better pattern is progressing forward in time... the heat flux from the canada and scandanavian ridges are working in tandem to create the -NAO. The timing does match with the SSW. The issue is 1 we've been fooled twice now this winter by this kind of progression. 2, even if this time it's right were at the extreme tail end of when it would even matter wrt snowfall. So I understand the lack of interest. I will track till the bitter end. Why not.

You'll be even dryer though

Yea, I have two categories in my mind with this phenomenon. The worst are storms that I can say most definitely should have been snow. Storms where given the setup from the macro to the micro...everything about it says this was snow 90% of the time in the past...and then it just rains. Those are the really alarming ones. There have been a few of these over the last 5 years. That was one of them. Then there is a second more ambiguous category. These are good track waves in a really bad pattern. Most of those would have been rain in the past too so this one is more tricky. The thing is NOT ALL OF THEM were rain. We used to luck into a fluke snow sometimes from a lucky track even in an otherwise totally shit pattern. We NEVER seem to anymore. It's too warm, frankly its too warm to even be close. There was an example around the super bowl last winter. Yea the pattern was shite, but it wasn't even close despite a perfect track storm. It wasn't even snow at 4000 feet in the mountains! It was way way way too warm in a system where it should have at least been close and had an outside chance. This one is hard because its very easy to say "there was a lot wrong of course that wasn't snow" and that is correct. This issue is they are not even close, and none not one is ever snow anymore when in the past some were. IMO we've now lost any chance at any of those second category of storms. There is almost no way we can get a snowstorm in a really bad pattern just from a lucky track anymore. Its just too warm in torch patters now. And worse we are now losing some of the good track waves in a decent to good longwave pattern too...that one is more alarming.

Well since I am the main torch bearer for the argument you seem to be refuting lets start by definig what I am and am not saying. I am NOT saying that we wont ever get snowy winters or big snowstorms. I have said 2 things 1) I think the evidence is strong enough to suggest we are getting less snow, and the biggest % of that change is because -PDO cycles are becoming much worse. I have said there is not much evidence that +PDO cycles have been affected yet. 2) I have said we are getting less "cold" snowstorms than we used too and marginal events are leaving rain more often. As for what evidence I have...From 1964 when records began to 2010 IAD had 19 days with 4" of snow and a high temp 5 or more below freezing. Since not once. And worse, since 2003 it's only happened in one year, 2010. That is a statistically significant trend. As for a PDO, its now been 24 years since we got an above avg snowfall -PDO season! 24 years. This use to happen fairly regularly. It happened 9 times between 1950 and 2000. None since. Again a statistically significant trend. I think there is ample evidence that we are getting less cold storms AND -PDO cycles are getting worse.

The whole jet ended up north and you're right IMO that is what effectively disrupted the blocking. The vortex that was supposed to be under the block reinforcing it with wave breaking ended up right in the NAO domain and eventually phased with the TPV lobe to the west and consolidated into a +++AO/NAO.

The discussion between me and CAPE was topical, about a threat. But it also was discussing how warming might impact the threat...also topical. It was the stupid and IMO intentional freak out fit some threw after that mucked up the thread. Then they say...look at this mess we can't talk about this...which is what they want. I'm not playing that game. We disagree on some things...but you're always open minded about stuff warming isn't a prediction it has already happened The higher elevations of our region are not suffering nearly as much. The atmosphere is warming from the ground up. The higher you go the less impacted we are from the warming that has already happened. But just about every reporting station in our region not above at least 700 feet is in the midst of their least snowy period ever. The fact that some of the higher elevations in the area are doing better just proves my point even more!

There is some honest debate about how "due" we are. So on the whole the PDO has been more negative than positive since about 1998. If you count that whole period as the -PDO cycle then we are due for a flip. However, within that period there have been several notable extreme positive spikes in the PDO. One in the 2000's, a shorter one around 2010, and from 2013-2018. And if you think back to 2017 and 2018 those were just typical nina fails. It was very cold at times both winters. We got a lot of threats but they failed in typical too much NS not enough STJ ways. There was nothing alarming to any of us from those 2 years. It was really 2019 after the PDO flip that I started to notice alarming trends. This is where it becomes complicated. The PDO has become less predictable and regular in its cycles lately. I've also seen some theorizing that its becoming more -PDO dominant. Please don't shoot the messenger on that, I've done absolutely no research on that all I am doing is passing it along, I have no thoughts on whether its true. But I've seen speculation that some variation of those shorter +PDO periods, either 2003-2018 or just 2010-2018, actually were a +PDO cycle because +PDO's will be shorter and less table and -PDO's longer by comparison, and in that case we are maybe just starting the -PDO. I think the majority position is that the larger 1998-2024 period was a -PDO dominant period with just some weird variations within...and that we are due for a flip. I honestly have no idea which is correct, I just want it to flip damnit.

Dude just post your thoughts, Screw the people who can't handle hearing things they don't like.

we definitely are, I've said several times this would be a bad period in any era. The 2 closest pattern comps are the 50's and 70s which were both our two previous worst periods before this god awful straight from snow hell one. I am hopeful once the PDO flips positive we will resume a closer to historical normal snowfall regime. I still think we will lose some snow on the margins even in a positive PDO but it won't be nearly as bad. But I think we have warmed too much to overcome the hostile pacific base state in a -PDO making those cycles much worse than they used to be. Which is a big problem since we are talking about a cycle we will be in half the time. But I think we will still get snowy winters in positive PDO years. I don't THINK we've crossed that threshold yet.

Sorry I tried, I moved to the other thread...then came back in here 12 hours later and all there was were more posts about the same thing in here. Funny how some only seem to mind that topic when its being talked about in a way they don't like...

@CAPE here’s the thing. It’s BS. All of it. For 12 hours after I said “fine you win I’ll take it to the other thread” they kept posting their points in here. And it became ludicrous. It got to the point they’re arguing “actually it’s fine it’s been snowing a lot”. But that’s fine. They don’t have a problem with that even more off topic nonsense. It’s a game. They’re playing us all. They intentionally make a mess then use the mess to justify their position. Manipulating the discussion to drown out a narrative they don’t like and using these BS topicality arguments to do it.

That was a discussion of a potential event. But granted a day 15 op gfs storm is a stretch. But not like much else was being talked about. Here is the thing, this is a game they play. The little 4 post back respectful and forth we had isn’t what derailed things. It was the fit they threw about it. And then they use the mess they create on purpose to say “see we can’t talk about this”. And how much more delusional can we get. There was even a discussion implying “it’s actually been snowy”. It’s been literally the worst period in history and we’re debating “but has it actually been good”. I just can’t.

That goes both ways. The occasional post discussing how warming is affecting a storm wouldn’t derail the thread if the same handful of people didn’t show up every time and try to shut it down. That’s what derails the thread. Last night if they didn’t do that @CAPE and I would have had our little 4 post back and forth discussion and then it would have been over. Finito. But they showed up as usual and turned it into a train wreck then the coup de grace is they use the mess they intentionally created to justify why we can’t talk about that!

I respectfully disagree. I saw some equally awful pattern setups with pac puke airmasses that we managed a snow because of nothing other than a lucky wave track before. 1997 was one. The difference imo was the crap airmasses used to be +5 instead of +8 or worse. As the torches get even warmer it’s getting harder to luck into a Snow from a lucky track in a bad pattern. Lately there is another even more depressing phenomenon of waves that take a good track in a decent or even good long wave pattern and rain because it’s still not cold enough. Yea those are the more alarming cases. The ones where we can definitely say “this should have been snow”. The other category of which that gfs storm would fall are storms where I say “in the past there was an outside chance that could have been snow maybe…but none of them seem to be anymore and it’s not even close anymore” and that’s also worth noting. But this is the kind of discussion that is topical and important to have. Maybe you’re right about that gfs storm. So the dialogue is important. Your pushback isn’t what got me heated. It was the various disingenuous passive aggressive attempts to stop the discussion from happening at all.

Meanwhile where is all the topical long range analysts in here that it was soooo important we stop my post about the gfs rainstorm being affected by warming? Funny. We just had to stop that. Because it wasn’t topical. It was derailing the discussion. And then Fing crickets. You guys are so transparent.

discussing how the fact it’s warmer is affecting storms is topical and belongs in here. But then 5 people complain and fill the thread with arguments about it. Then sarcastic posts like this pop up. And the purpose is to F up the thread so bad every time this topic comes up to force the MODS to step in and squash it. It’s not cute or clever.

All these people in higher elevation locations posting how their snow has been better than the majority of this region only proves my point more because the boundary layer is warming faster. Higher elevations are as of yet less affected by what I was talking about.

They know who they are, that’s why they bitch and moan whenever I say it! @CAPE Maybe I’m not trying to convince them. Maybe I’m just trying to throw indisputable irrevocable proof that they’re wrong in their face! And maybe they don’t like that which is why they throw a hissy fit to try to force the mods to shut down the conversation. They can’t argue the evidence so they try to stop it from being shown. They have the right to be ignorant. And I have the right to throw the proof they are wrong in their face!

It’s ok. Our debates are amicable. I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. Actually I do think we get more snow once the pdo flips. I just thing we’ve warmed too much to overcome a -pdo anymore.

You’re east of a ridge in a down sloping situation. I’m on top of the highest point in the region. I’m north of you. I’m northeast which matters because I can get into later developing storms. Miller Bs aren’t as bad here. Yea they aren’t NYC good but…You got like 3” from Jan 2005 my area got 7”. That may not seem huge but it happens over and over. Someone’s it is huge. Feb 1978 your area got 2” my area got 16”. Also I’m on the first ridge so with an east wind in a coastal the upslope enhancement is insane. And being northeast helps me with the downslope zone east of the blue ridge. With a SWFE you’re in the dead zone. By me those systems redevelop some. And my elevation helps me with every marginal surface temp situation. Lastly I don’t avg 20” more than you because you don’t avg 20”. You’re closer to 23” so I average like 17” more.