psuhoffman

It was the h5 and speed of 12z but the progression of 18z wrt developing the arctic wave and rolling through with that feature. It was the best of both.

Tell us again

Ya know I’ve argued for years the 12k NAM just ads noise and confusion. Sure once in a blue moon it scores a coup but 90% of the time when it’s off on a tangent it’s wrong. We’d be better if it just didn’t exist. 3k ads value because as long as it matches the globals on Synoptics it can see features they can’t. But im getting to that point with the GFS. Since the last major upgrade that fixed some of the early biases they were causing the new euro after its core upgrade to be jumpy, it’s been a rock. Of cores it’s not always right, but it’s right or closer to right often enough that the other models tend to just add confusion unnecessarily. And when another model has been closer on rare occasions it’s almost never been the gfs. Maybe one fluke run here or there but what good is that because you don’t know what run is right. It’s sad but bc the euro and to a lesser extent the Ggem have made significant improvements and the GFS has not kept up, it’s becoming kinda obsolete right now to me. I feel like I’d better off not even looking at it most of the time. Wonder if NCEP sees this too and has any plans to do anything about it. I dont doubt we have the knowledge. I think it must be a funding issue.

GFS is one thing you know who could cancel and I wouldn’t mind

I’m worried about the GFS

Or he’s busy arguing with everyone on social media about what the NAO is Love ya Chuck.

Good that means he can’t find any reason to tell us it’s not happening.

Tuckity tuck tuck

I can abide by this run

I can’t do pbp I like to digest each frame and analyze and you Fers just jump right to the colorful maps lol

Yup

From h5 I think it’s another nuke

H5 is coming out first on wxbell. Amped as F at 108. Can’t see surface though. Just h5

Ralph thinks it’s too flat

Reverse psychology

Yea liked the progression just seemed dry. Not worried.

Ok you know what I can see what you saw. That’s just way too early. But I see it. But even then there are signs that early flat flow won’t matter. 1) the wave is more amplified. 2) look at how the TPV lobe is already more disconnected out west and ahead of schedule in the process of breaking off. Those 2 things offset the flat flow you were noticing.

Ok but even drunk im kinda curios what you saw at what timeframe that made you think that. Honestly. Because as it was coming out there was no frame at either the surface or h5 where I felt uh oh. Actually from pretty early on I was thinking “oh shit this is gonna be nuts”. Wondering what you were looking at…

I agree, although keep in mind our absolute huge snows (18”+) DC typically does very well also. We want the jack zone centered just southeast of us. That’s when we get super high ratios and that NW death band and avoid the dry slot. If DC starts having too much precip type issues and some 6” crud storm we can do very well, but the jack will be NW of us also on a huge storm like this. Plus we can all win with this if it tracks right. This could have a huge heavy snowfall dispersion.

When I was trying to find analogs to this storm more of the decent matches I saw were skewed NW of 95 than SE. I noted that. But no two setups are the same. But if the TPV fully splits and cuts off this has a lot of room to amplify.

lol I’d be more worried about over amped then OTS with that look

Damnit Randy left us to the wolves

This run of the gfs was closer, it took a baby step towards a better result.

My bigger fear would be a compromise that ends with another coastal plain storm fringe job up here the pattern looks too good for no storm but that doesn’t mean it has to hit here lol

I’m only at 108 but I think it looks better at h5. TPV lobe more disconnected and west. Digging in more. More room for a wave to amplify. I’ll assume it craps the bed from here but I saw improvements early.