psuhoffman

Im not sure how much base WISP has to last but my favorite time to ski in the east is spring when you get soft slush and I can wear a light jacket and bomb down the mountain with no near of hitting ice! Sugarbush VT and Sugatloaf ME are awesome through April and into May some years! Unfortunately I might be done for the season due to a meniscus injury. Waiting in mri results to see if I need surgery and what the timeline is. Maybe if I’m lucky and don’t need surgery I can get back out in April and save some of the season.

For me 2018 went from a D- to a solid B when I got a 16” snowstorm on March 20-21. Keep in mind I totally missed that coastal bomb in January that year.

For me any year that has a hecs is automatically at least a B. They are just too rare and the best events we get to be too picky. If anything else decent happens that year it’s an A.

It felt cold because it had been so damn warm from 2005 to 2013. The truth is the sudden decrease in these “cold snowstorms” happened following 2004. They happened rather regularly at IAD from 1964 when records began until 2004. Then from 2005 until now it’s happened only twice, both in 2009/10. Thats 19 times in 40 years. Since then twice in 20 years and none in the last 14. It’s just been too warm. Pretty much all our snowstorms in the last 20 years the high for that day was near or above freezing. 2014 did have a couple events that were closer than in most years with highs below freezing at least.

Pdo isn’t Barbar related

I don’t want to have the argument again because I don’t care. I just want it to end. I don’t have a take. I just know there was argument about when the PDO cycle really flipped.

Those 2 are linked. It was a NS wave riding the thermal boundary. If the boundary shifts north so does the wave.

So I’ve seen conflicting thoughts. It depends what you consider the period from 2003-2016. The PDO cycles have become increasingly volatile and less predictable in length. There were 3 periods of +PDO embedded within those 13 years. Some think that may have been the +PDO cycle and it was just somewhat muted. Others think it was just fluctuations within the -PDO. I have no strong take. I just hope it changes soon.

This pretty much echoes my thoughts

From 1964 to 2010 IAD recorded 21 days with 4”+ of snow and a high temperature below 28 degrees. It hasn’t happened in 14 years since 2010.

I know my kids have a really nice sand box but would you please get your head out of it.

Irony is the tactic I used to identify that storm doesn’t work as often anymore. Back then I was simply hunting for a major h5 amplification to our south. I used a “rule” that in a split flow blocking regime you typically see a system exit with about the same amplitude and latitude as it entered the CONUS. So I identified that we likely would get a fairly amplified h5 low to track just under us and went hard for snow regardless of marginal temps. That method doesn’t work now. The last few I identified that way ended up just being perfect track (h5 anyways) rainstorms.

Ya we’ve been getting cold Smoke blizzards left and right.

Like 3 days ago I said “we should ignore the south band and focus on the north, history says that’s where the goods will be and the south max will be disappointing” I let my desire for us not to be shafted influence me too much yesterday. For a time the guidance kept the fgen displaced south of the arctic boundary and indicated two separate legit heavy snow bands. But things converged on a more historically typical outcome with the fgen shifting north with the better thermal gradient along the arctic boundary. I should have seen that coming. I did from 3 days then kidded myself when crunch time came.

I doubt this is my last snow. If so it would be the earliest other than 2020 and 2023 when it barely snowed at all all winter. But just in case I’m enjoying this one. View of the Catoctins looking west looking south towards Manchester Looking southeast towards Parrs Ridge. I’m technically on Dug Hill which is the next ridge NW of Parrs. The water tower you see is the highest point on Parrs Ridge! Looking northwest, through those trees there is a fire tower along the next ridge of Dug Hill that’s actually the highest point in Maryland east of the Catoctins. It’s about 50 feet higher than me.

That crazy fgen zone guidance had over our area yesterday ended up pushing north and they got it.

I’ll say it. The fact that some of our classic ways to get snow like a -nao or a Nino have failed lately have lead at times to comments like “maybe what we need is something else”. But there is absolutely no evidence that Nina’s neutral winters or positive NAOs are becoming more snowy. We are just getting less snow because what does produce snow is working less.

Chuck, I’ve joked about the resolution of those maps but seriously it’s time to have a real discussion about the depth maps. First of all the dc area failed last night because the precip shifted north of them. They only got about .15 qpf around the area and some of that was rain! Places that got snow had higher than 10-1 ratios generally. The temps in southern PA and my area were in the low 30s also. Everything shifted north including temps. And that area had very high ratios because of the optimal snow growth conditions. Had the storm not shifted north like it did at the last minute the DC to Baltimore area would have had good ratios! But more importantly those snow depth maps are NEVER actually correct. They were horrifically wrong last night. They had a max snow of 4”! Places got 14”! A very large area from me north to NYC got over 4”. Those snow depth maps were awful. Had the storm not shifted north our area would have got the 4-8” NWS predicted and possibly more! They were only right in our specific location because the storm busted and missed us! They are often right here for that same reason. Because we suck monkey nuts at snow and often the storm busts. But that’s like some guru who predicted western Michigan institute for the blind will have a losing season every year. No shit they lose every year! That doesn’t make him a great prognosticator. In places that actually get hit by the storm those maps suck ass. And once in a blue moon when a snowstorm actually does flush hit us they are wrong here too like both storms back in January when they said 2” max and the area got 3-6” The last storm Tuesday were wrong too! They had a max zone of 4-5” and places got 12”. I got 6” and they had 1” here. Honestly those depth maps are atrocious. Saying the models never indicated more than a few inches and using those god awful abominations to justify that is not legitimate. The reality is 18 hours out the models had us getting hit with that fgen snow band that dumped 6-10” up in PA! Had that not shifted north the NWS might have even busted low in places!

Can we still get a storm like 1996 where it’s snowing hard at like 14 degrees at Dulles?

4.3” total based on new snow on the deck since I cleared it at 3am. 4” depth. My driveway melted overnight!

Snowing again big fluffy flakes.

The crazy fgen banding that guidance had over us yesterday morning ended up in PA. It at up near Harrisburg. I see reporters of 6-8” around there and there were 3”/hr rates. So the storm had the potential is just shifted it north of us at the last minute

I posted the whole exchange so you can stop this BS nonsense. He made a false statement. Myself and several others corrected him. I have no idea where your personal and intentionally misleading attack came from but knock it off.

Stop it. You weren’t attacked for saying it wasn’t going to snow more. By the tIme you said that most agreed the forecast was too high. Myself and others called you out for false statements you made repeatedly to imply the forecast was never justified. You said models NEVER showed more than a few inches. You said qpf wasn’t trending down. Several people told you that wasn’t true. I posted the 12z NAM, GFS and Euro all showing more snow. Yet you continued to make the same claim again and again!