psuhoffman

Two things can be true.

This. I wouldn’t be talking about THIS depressing BS if we had anything optimistic at all to discuss.

That’s literally how I felt reading that!

10.3” is about 25% worse than the second worse 9 year period and yet you say it like it’s not that bad.

@brooklynwx99 I just ran the numbers again...this is what I'm talking about... For BWI the last 8 years have been the least snowy and not by a little...but an exponentially ridiculous margin over the next least snowy period. From 2016/17 to 2023/24 BWI has had 75.3" or an avg of 9.4" per season over that 8 years. The previous least snowy 8 year period was 1950 to 1957 with 99.5". This period is 24% less snowy than the next least snowy period! That is crazy ridiculous. But here is the really crazy part...its about to be sooooo much worse because all our previous snowless periods didn't last past 8 years...they were all bookended by very snowy periods. So you say we need more time...I don't think so, things are about to get crazy stupid soon if we dont get a 40" type season right quick. For example...BWI needs 44.4" next winter just to avoid it being the least snowy 9 years ever. But it gets even worse....over the next 2 years BWI would need 68" to avoid it becoming the least snowy 10 years EVER!... think of that...we need 68" in the next 2 years...not for it to become average, or just bad...but simply to not have it be the least snowy 10 years EVER. And it gets even worse after that...BWI needs to avg 37" over the next 3 years to avoid the worst 11 years ever...and it goes on and on. The bottom line is...its very likely we are NEVER digging out of this. We have fallen so far below the bar of all previous low snowfall periods that its unlikely we ever recover and get out of the red...and this does become the "least snowy 10, 12, 15...years ever going forward because it would take the kind of 1960s stretch to avoid it that likely just isnt possible anymore in todays climate. So no...I do think we have enough data to say.

The sample size is low if you parse this last 8 years into sub groups. But if you just take the whole period…we’re getting close to the ridiculous stage when you compare this to every previous low snowfall period. And if we don’t get some HUGE winters SOON it’s about to escalate to astronomical proportions because all the previous 8 year periods even close to this on snow were bookended by epic high snowfall periods.

@brooklynwx99 I was saying a lot of the same things you are years ago when people were alarmed. Nothing you’re saying is wrong when taken in a vacuum. But it’s been warm with very little snow for a long time now. If it doesn’t snow soon those statements just start to wear thin. It’s not you.

@CAPE curious…what if your life depended on BWI getting 35” next winter. What pattern would you want to see heading into winter to feel like you have a shot? Short of simply “hope the PDO flips” that ones obvious. But what if it’s still a -pdo. BWI has had 35”+ numerous times in a -pdo. Granted none in the last 30 years. But if you could draw up the pattern you want to see in this -pdo if you had to get 35” what would it be?

I feel like I’m looking at the scoreboard and we’re losing by 50 at the 2 min warning and the coach is saying “it’s ok guys, everything’s fine, focus on the next play”.

Yea I know how the CFS and a smoothed mean work. But I also know we’ve had 9 straight warm winters and we struggle to get cold at all anymore and lately the whole continent is warm and at some point all these “it’s fine chill out” posts only mean squat if it actually gets cold and snows. So long as we remain in this never ending torch snow hell I kinda don’t want to hear it.

I agree, but it’s sad because that means we are totally giving up on getting a legit snowy winter because that ain’t happening in a Nina. But ya I agree.

OK then...explain to me the longwave configuration that would work with that above? You realize the pac is actually GOOD there and the trough is over us...but none of that matters if its F'ing hot EVERYWEHERE

With so much blue it’s amazing we don’t get cold

Careful, you might be stalking him

Tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanoes oh my

EPS still wants to develop a workable pattern...GEFS wants no part of a pacific change

There are some patterns where the thermal gradient changes sharply north to south...others where there is not much difference over hundreds of miles and if you shift temps a couple degrees warmer suddenly its just too warm everywhere.

I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”.

There is a ridge EVERYWHERE downstream of the pacific. Think…

But that’s part of this feedback loop we’re stuck in. Oceans are crazy warm. So any bad long wave configuration floods crazy warmth across the whole continent blasting away any cold. Then it takes forever to recover. By the time we do it happens again. Repeat cycle a few fines and winters over and I only had to break out my winter coat maybe 5 times all year! This isn’t a refutation of my point it’s support for it imo. The rest of your post is probably accurate. I haven’t thought about it but I left the DC area because I couldn’t take it. I lived in southern NJ and northern VA for 24 years and it wasn’t enough snow for me. So I moved to a location that used to get reliable snow. That averages over twice as much and historically gets a 8” snow almost every year. And now for the last 8 years I’m back to about what I used to get living in VA which was why I left! Yes that’s frustrating! But I try not to complain about my results because while I’m getting what northern VA used to they are getting what NC used to!

We did have a block in Dec and Jan. The Feb one failed. But why does it even matter? Over the last 5 years we had several 3 standard deviating or more blocks that did us no good at all. We torched right through one of our strongest blocks ever a couple Decembers ago. Remember 2021? We had this block in prime climo for 5 weeks and it did DC no good at all. They got a couple perfect track rainstorms though! Lack of blocking is not why we’ve been in this snow drought. A failure of blocks to affect or offset the pacific the same as in the past has been though.

This makes we want to punch furry woodland creatures. -AO/NAO, PNA ridge. And…TORCH

Because of earthquakes, tidal waves, and volcanoes.

@osfan24 @stormtracker but my point is…even if March 58 did come again it would be a 40 degree rainstorm and we would all be complaining “why don’t we get March 58 storms anymore”.