psuhoffman

I said Feb 20-March 15 and I Fng meant Feb 20-March 15. Chill out y’all.

Trends can reverse at any time.

My point is the same. The pattern is good. That puts is in the game. But we can’t tell exactly what the outcome of the waves will be at that range. Just that our chances are higher than normal one amplifies near the east coast with cold around given the larger pattern.

IMO people are letting their frustrations over next week bleed into this thread. The guidance looks great for around Feb 20 which was my target all along. I knew snow before that while not impossible was going to be a battle. The mjo is heading towards the cold phases. Everything’s on track. If we had been in a torch pattern we would be excited by what we see coming.

I wasn’t being derogatory I was agreeing with you.

This is hard to get when people are hyper focused on their yard but the bitter truth is with our current level of technology and scientific understanding we don’t have the ability to differentiate between those two outcomes at that range. The difference is noise with minor changes that we can’t account for in initialization leading to those rather major differences that far out.

Don’t over react. One bad run doesn’t mean we’re doomed. I’ve never been overly impressed with the setup but even I know it’s close enough with enough lead time left not to lose interest. Welcome aboard. If we get a -3stdv block and the PV gets displaced into NF and it fails because we’re juts too warm and somehow with a PV that close the cold still can’t press soft enough for us…maybe we need to have the discussion no one wants to have again. Not in here though. Some post analysis thread. But I’m not going there yet. I am not ready to say blocking doesn’t work anymore because that’s our only path to truly big storms and big years. If we ever want 40” snow years like 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010 we NEED that. These epo patterns we’ve been relying on to get snow are not going to replace our historically best way to get big snows. They can’t. 2014 was an anomaly. We can repeat that same pattern 10 times and it’s not going to yield that much snow again. That was a fluke.

The guidance still shows a -AO block with a PV displaced into Quebec and NF. That’s a pattern that should yield us snow opportunities. Right? We can’t lock onto a specific wave to focus on because it’s still too far away. But history says that should yield something. Doesn’t always. Sometimes a good pattern goes to waste. Not every blocking regime leads to snow. Matter of fact lately less of them have been. We could discuss why that is.

I like when we’re on the same team!

The doom posts only bother you if you let them. Is it better to have a thread full of posts telling people how to feel?

Just a thought. But people can feel how they want. We don’t all have to agree or want the same things. Every time someone says they like it don’t like a run we don’t need 5 posts telling them why they shouldn’t feel that way! I have been as big an offender at this as anyone. I will own that and I’m going to try to do better myself.

Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know.

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.

I should specify, when I point out what I think is our most likely way to fail...it does not mean I think that WILL happen...just that is what to look out for if it were to all go wrong.

We are going to get a legit big dog threat somewhere...too soon to key on a specific wave yet but soon...

I guarantee with that surface track there would be a warm layer above 850, so the mix like is going to be well NW of the 850 in that setup. Just a warning. Plenty of time for it to adjust either way.

I wish I could say relax, but that is exactly what I was thinking was a legit fail mode for places north of DC but south of central PA. I've seen that happen before...where initially the lead wave is supposed to be dominant but more energy gets held back and we get a front running weaker wave that gives snow to our south...then a stronger storm right behind it that goes to our NW. Frankly that's no good for anyone because even the places that get good snow from the front runner has it all washed away almost immediately by a big rainstorm. But so far the AI is mostly alone in that, but its definitely something to look out for and is the most likely way we fail here imo.

GEPS also

@Terpeast look at this 7 day mean temps and precip. Feb 18-26.

That is exactly what I was thinking we needed more of! Congrats on getting to work on that. Envious lol.

Chuck would like to point out the flaws. Sure this could fail. Even the best patterns sometimes do. A few years back to make that point I posted the h5 from the weeks of our 3 biggest snowstorms and from 3 total fails and cut off the dates and no one could tell the difference. But…we’ve waited forever to get looks like these and inside of the crazy stupid unicorn day 25 extended nonsense that likes to tease and torment us.

That’s an awesome project! I actually wish we put more into analog identification. Yea we get the generic hemispheric analogs from the guidance but that’s not always necessarily pertinent to what we care about, the chances of a specific storm in a specific area. The CIPS is pretty good once inside 100 hours. But this area feels neglected. Maybe AI is about to change that.

Yea I dunno what bar people are holding this winter too. It’s not a Nino. We can in with a crazy -pdo. Yea it flopped to neutral which saved us probably but it’s not like we have the greatest background state to expect some 50” season. Just getting to near normal was a win imo.