psuhoffman

The last couple times we expected it to help it didn’t seem to do squatola. We already had one period of blocking despite the “hostile” QBO

I’ll take my chances on a repeat of Januarys pattern but in Feb/March. Probably will be wetter. Shorter wavelengths and increased heat south of the boundary will make it easier to get storms wound up also.

@CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember.

Chuck will find something wrong with it.

The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range.

@CAPE this a -NAO?

The gefs is trending towards the EPS and it’s only a few days behind getting to the same place even if it’s right. At least with respect to the day 15 pattern.

You will be surprised if the EPS verifies better than the GEFS?

I wasn’t talking about you. lol. You’re not a new poster. That comment had nothing to do with you.

Feb 2013 I got 5” in 90 mins from a squall. During the Feb 10 2010 storm I got 12” in 3 hours at the start. That’s the heaviest snows I’ve experienced here.

I said I’m less confident about what happens between now and Feb 20 not that it has no chance. The issue is historically models have teased us a lot from a week out in TNH -epo +AO patterns only to shift NW. This includes some of the analogs I’m riding. I remember around Feb 1 in 2018 we were optimistic about a similar pattern. There were epic runs with tons of hits. In the end we got like 2-3” from one wave and a lot of rain. Something similar happened in 2017 also. Yea it could go like 2014 but more often this pattern we end up on the wrong side. Not always. This year has been colder so maybe we get the rare win. But Chuck isn’t totally wrong about his reservations. But he is too sure and extending it too long imo. But this isn’t a sure thing. This type of pattern is usually better for the upper Midwest and interior New England than here.

There was some squall in the 80s where some places got 7” in an hour! There was that inverted trough in 2009 where places in southern PA got 11” in 2-3 hours. I’d almost love that more than a regular 20” storm.

That’s a seriously -AO

The cold looks like it’s penetrating the SER

-pna

-pna

There is a growing list of new posters that don’t make much sense to me. They post with an air of certainty but what they say makes no damn sense. Let me be clear. I am not the smartest person in here. Not even close. There are plenty of topics I don’t know jack about. But I would never go into a medical forum and start posting about the efficacy of some drug I don’t know shit about. Or join a car forum and start posting about how to fix a transmission.

It’s been colder, in case your skin doesn’t work and you haven’t noticed.

lol when I asked if he was ok because I was genuinely concerned I didn’t intend it to be interpreted as some batsignal that we needed a bunch of pna posts in the thread. My bad.

H5 typically has to be in place before a threat. I’m sticking to Feb 20 estimate for when the ground truth changes. But 10 days ago all I had was faith in the seasonal pattern progression. Then a week ago some hints started to show up that things were heading to this. Now the pattern is fully showing up on the eps right when it should.

End of eps is Wow

lol Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason.

I was talking about where we’re heading about Feb 20. Which is 20 days away. Which is more than 15 Why are you going with the warmer less accurate guidance over the colder more accurate guidance?

EPS Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! It's already starting to get beat down at the end.