psuhoffman

Thought topic for Commanders or Eagles fans... if the devil offered you a snowstorm or a super bowl win...how much snow would it take? As an Eagles fan it would take a LOT of snow...but not saying there isn't a number. Somewhere around 40" I might start to consider it...50 and I probably have to take the snow.

According to the EPS it will be nice and cold and we will be tracking a possible snowfall threat as I watch the Eagles win the Super Bowl.

EPS says "enjoy the 5 day warmup then you go right back into the freezer"

I didn't say that, we could possible score something during the less favorable period...I was just timing up the flip back to what I think is likely to be one more truly cold and possibly snowy period

Regarding the euro weekly products...been thinking about how they typically try to establish a canonical enso look by week 4 almost all the time even when its erroneous. I've also observed they tend to underestimate the MJO past day 15 also. They generally kill the MJO into the COD most of the time or have a very low amplitude wave when in reality it ends up stronger. I wonder if its tendency to do this causes it to rely on "other" factors like enso too much and constantly flip to a boiler plate enso analog look with very little variability.

That's more than fine...into phase 7 by Feb 7th heading towards 8. That would time the flip colder to be by Feb 20th or so.

Maybe 99 was the one that hit the DC area...I wasn't really affected by either I was at PSU those 2 winters. I love Montreal. There was a cute little Irish pub on Bishop or Crescent St...can't remember which.

our best chance at any snow might be that clipper that goes to our north next week...wouldn't be the craziest adjustment I've ever seen to get that south. Not saying its a good shot, just our best shot.

Thought that was 99

I've seen speculation regarding the timing of the TPV and cut off low. IMO that doesn't matter much, it's the amplitude of the trough and ridge that matters. If the amplitude continues to be too great (Deep trough with a huge ridge behind it) the cut off low is simply going to stall and wait then cut once the ridge in over top it. Even if it tried to eject into that deep trough it would get shredded to oblivion in that look. The only way this would work if with a flatter flow over the top allowing the cut off low to eject under it.

We should ask Ji. He is the ultimate arbiter of whether it’s a good winter right?

But I don’t grade winters purely on that number. I had a nice surprise snow in November. I’ve had some snow on the ground most of the winter! If I get one more nice snowstorm, say an 8” storm sometime in Feb or March I’ll give this a B. It’s already a C even without anymore snow. 2 more decent storms and it’s getting close to A territory whether I hit average or not.

I need 21”. That might be hard but a couple of the analog years would get me close. I need 16” though to hit my median which is more realistic.

I was referring to putting out a forecast for a single storm at day 8. It might end up rain to Canada or suppressed to nothing for all we know. But didn’t southeast of us get that first storm? At least southeast of me lol. I guess it’s all perspective. I actually think this winter has been oddly diffuse so far with no defined track. One storm went really far south. One hit Bob Chill area with 3-5” And we got 1-2” One jacked just SE of DC and one just NW. there is a huge area in the east near to slightly above norm on snow but no area got crazy totals because the storms were all over the place.

Did you see the blocking on the euro? I think it’s rushing it but I think we get one more AO tank and one more period of blocking before time runs out.

Barney won't ever be the same

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level! To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive! I bow down to you sir.

but which normals are they using?????

TORCH

frankly its the same snow hole @RevWarReenactor lives in, if its for the geographic reasons I suspect it extends NE right along the Bay then continues NE and links up with the Delaware Valley near the canal to the snowhole in SW NJ that I experienced first hand growing up.

Oh hell that is DEFINITELY the reason for your snow hole

That's "incoming" right there

That is a perfect gradient right there!

Yea, while the AI has destroyed our little window around Jan 30-Feb 2, beyond that it's muting the warm up and is way ahead of schedule in how its evolving the pacific and high latitudes towards going back into a colder pattern. If that is the trade off, losing one low probability threat for a faster flip back to a better longer term pattern... I will take that.

Maybe to hide the fact he is a really bad forecaster?