psuhoffman

So your bar for not being a "disaster" is winter has to do something that has only happened 4 times in the last 20 years?

I am being conservative too...one flush hit can go over that of course but how often have we got lucky lately?

This is just an educated guess based on similar years and patterns but I'd put your over under at like 9" the rest of the way

@Ji based on my analogs and what I’m seeing Id expect you to get 12-15” more if I had to guess. Would that get you to above avg?

No because it’s a cold enso. Historically cold but not super snowy cold enso seasons are normal. If we got a cold modoki Nino and wasted it I’d be more upset. Plus we are above average for the date in many places. There is a lot of time left. What do you need to get to average?

Weak Nino

Every storm is slightly different. Adjust that 50 miles south and you get a foot of snow and ice like that euro run. Just have to take our chances.

That period must not have been as good down there. You keep talking about 2007 like a fail. But from mid Feb to mid March I had an 8” ice storm followed by a 4” snow to ice event then a 6” snow in March. The winter as a whole was a fail because I had no snow at all before that period. But mid Feb to mid March was plenty good imo.

What did you get from that storm? It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again!

With a decent amount of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow also. Which is good if we want it to survive the rain when we inevitably end up on the wrong side of the boundary for some of the waves to come!

Euro reminds me of a less juiced up cold enso version of PD2.

Euro looks promising

Think of it this way…once past 120 hours each permutation is about equally likely. There are plenty of big members. This run the op happened to be one of the lesser ones which is equally likely looking at the full spread of options. Also this snow is from several waves so a mean of 7” looks exciting but maybe less so when you see the details and it all came 2” at a time from snow to ice to rain events which is what we’re probably looking at. But I thought it was just a win we were tracking frozen events during what was supposed to be our torch week!

Through day 10, which is honestly as far out as it even matters…0z gefs is snowier 0z on top, 18z below

But isn’t that expected to some degree. The best analogs to this pattern are more icy than snowy for our area. That’s why I said I’m less sure of this period. Models often adjust to the analogs of what more typically happens once inside day 7. This is not to say we won’t get snow or can’t even get the crazy amounts some runs show, but are we really expecting that when history suggests more ice and less snow is the more common outcome?

It doesn’t look that bad to me. 2 mid Atlantic snow events and ends with a crazy block. JB is just creating fake drama to get you doing exactly what you’re doing.

Yea. The most likely fail the next 2 weeks is rain. The most likely fail weeks 3-4 is dry imo.

It was a 1-2 day warm up before that next trough digs in.

I can accept this run as an appetizer before the really good pattern sets in

Storm 1 storm 2 total

I’ve never seen the mean look like that. Even after the crazy ridiculous week 2, weeks 3-4-5 are about as snowy as I’ve ever seen a 7 day mean on the weeklies. It finally breaks around March 15.

I’ve never seen this. Ever.

I’m definitely excited for the waves day 7-15 but if we’re going to have a shot at a classic coastal 12”+ snowstorm a couple days after this would be the first (but not the last) opportunity! Wave X is moving into 50/50 and wave Y is about to dig into the TN valley. Which would be around Feb 20 lol.

Bastardi probably predicted it before labor day!

We’re still missing the Nina STJ so even if we do get a more canonical coastal later in the month it might have MECS v hecs top end potential here. But that is just playing the historical odds game. A string of secs MECS level events might be a more likely max outcome from this type pattern coming up.