psuhoffman

I’m not. They played it exactly like I would have. Played both safeties deep every play. Don’t give up a TD. Go in up 2 scores getting the ball. Don’t risk a TD to make it a one score game. Now they can make it a 3 score game with a TD out of the half. I’d have played it different if we were kicking off or I didn’t trust our offense to put up at least another 10+ points in the second half. Up 13 getting the ball with an offense that hasn’t had trouble scoring on this team in 3 games this year is a HUGE spot to be in

Have to wait and see if today was a trend or another head fake at progressing too fast.

@Ji in the last 16 years IAD has had 3” or more snow in March more often than February. 7 times v 6. IAD has had 5” more often in March 6 times to 5! Feb beats March in 10” months by 1 in the last 16 years. 3x to 2. The odds of a 3/6/8” snow is almost the same each week from Jan 1 to March 15 then hits wall and goes to almost nothing by March 20th. It is true there is a spike in 12”+ events from Jan 20-Feb 18 then the chances of a 12”+ storm does go down but in terms of snow we have the same chances to get a 6” snow the first 10 days of March as we nave the first 10 in February

EPS is colder at day 15 also

@Ji I just looked over all the ensemble guidance and the mjo forecasts and compared it to the analogs I’ve been tracking. We’re right on track. Most of the similar analog years had a relax and warmer period for about 2-4 weeks sometime late January to late February. The pattern progression looks very similar and right on time. However, something differentiates this year from the warmer more delayed shift years. It’s colder and even during the warm up cold is near and ready to attack once the pattern flips. Some of the warmer years the long wave pattern flipped like Feb 15-20 but we wasted another week getting cold. That won’t happen this year. Im betting we flip back cold real fast once the mjo gets to 8 and the AO continues its consistent pattern and dips below -1 again. The timing of that looks to be around Feb 15-20 imo. This seems like a less extreme version of 2014 to me. Maybe a combination of 2014 and 2009 is the closest to reality right now. But I don’t think the warm up is as long or as hopeless as in the dreg years we feared were the best analogs! If you’re holding this year to some unrealistic standard like expecting a 1996 or 2014 outcome(the two best non Nino winters of the last 75 years) then you’re likely to be disappointed which seems to be your status quo! But if you compare this season to the majority of cold neutral to weak Nina comps like 2001, 2002, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023 we are very likely to finish above the average snowfall of those combines years and might even make a run at being the best of them except for 2014, depending on how the second half goes. So I ask what bar are you using to judge because we are doing way better then almost all the best analogs.

Yea we did. A lot. But you’re taking it to extremes again. The pattern being advertised isn’t a no hope for weeks pattern. It’s a period where we likely end up above normal and most of the precip will be rain but we could luck into a snow event if we bet a well timed follow up wave behind a cold front. Cold will be close enough that it’s not hopeless. Them sometime between Feb 20-March 1 we likely go back into a truly favorable period where the cold is centered over us again. There were lots of posts to that effect in the last week by several people. I even listed the analogs and pointed out we did get some snow during the warmer Feb period in a few of the years like that 2-4” storm in Feb 2018! I have no idea where you got the idea that we would flip back cold by early Feb except if you totally bought into one or two runs of the euro at day 15. It was progressing things way too fast, which is a common error. We will get there. I’m very confident we get another cold/snowy period. But all the analogs say it’s probably not until around Feb 20-March 1 that we truly flip cold again. That doesn’t mean we won’t get anymore snow before then. But it’s likely to average above normal on the whole until at least Feb 15.

What are you talking about? A week ago we were speculating the flip back cold might be the very end of Feb or early March. I said “if it flips back by Feb 20 we are ahead of schedule” And you had accumulating snow in March in 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022.

I said it would be harder to be cold than it has been until then. And even on this gfs it’s warm for a decent bit before and after that threat. But anything that’s not “it’s gonne be frigid and snow a shit ton” seems to end up interpreted as “winters over”

But Ji cancelled winter

We don’t. The end.

-pna

I think they could stop him. But if they do it by stacking the line the way they did back in December Hurts likely picks them apart. I rewatched that game and they were so focused on stopping the run there were receivers so wide open, including the drop that would have iced the game. But Picket missed several wide open easy throws and they kept trying to run way too much into a stacked line. I kinda hope they do try to duplicate that game plan. I think the eagles score 40 if they do.

Where has chuck been? He ok?

I never said I thought the real flip was coming that soon. You know guidance usually rushes things.

From now until about Feb 15 it’s probably going to be a little tougher to get cold than it’s been so far this winter. There are conflicting signals but there is more forcing in the MC and western pac than we want. But the pattern looks far from hopeless. @mitchnick I think the eps was rushing things and will likely continue to delay some. But by day 15 you can see the inception of the real flip back cold. The wpo and epo are flipping. The AO never went that positive and is going negative again. With the mjo in 7 then I do expect some SER. But even so any warmth is living on borrowed time by Feb 8 if that progression is close to accurate. Cold is loading and with that pacific it’s going to come east, and once the mjo gets back to 8…we’re probably going back into the freezer. This isn’t one of those years where there is no cold to work with. I would be shocked if we’re done with snow.

Gfs is slower with the mjo and is still in 6 when euro has it half way through 7 by then.

But winters over… Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was. That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again.

Too bad winters over

Detroits winter was never likely to go well because they had no defense against warm intrusions due to significant losses in pressure gradients.

Take a seat on the couch. Close your eyes. Relax. Take a deep breath. Feel your tensions slip away. Now….try to turn off your emotional response and apply logic here. We do this EVERY year. Even in 2010. Seriously we were having this conversation around Jan 20 then. When that Jan 30 storm looked suppressed for a few days the “it’s almost over” posts started. Yes as we get to February the end of Winter is coming. And yes it is going to end. And I know for some of you that’s emotionally taxing and this is your emotional reaction to cope. But if you’re going to toss Feb 20 on every year because it’s too close to the end of winter and you can’t handle that for some emotional reason, then realize you have to adjust what winter should look like. Because Baltimore averages about 4.6” after Feb 20. If you throw that out their avg is only 14.7”. Worse the median goes down to about 10”! And I ran the weekly numbers years ago when we were having this same discussion and while there is a spike in HECS storms in early to mid Feb and it dips after, weekly snowfall and the chances of a 1”/3”/6” storm remain pretty similar until about March 10 then it goes down fast. So if you insist on tossing late winter because it’s too close to the end to enjoy, fine but you have to toss the snow we normally get then and by that standard we’ve already had a median snowfall winter in much of the area! By that standard we’ve had a good year! Or you can stay until the end of the movie and actually enjoy the final scene even though it’s almost over and just accept all things come to an end but next winter will come! Yea, go with that one. Ok now you feel completely refreshed. Light as a feather. Open your eyes and enjoy the rest of winter.

I’m keeping receipts on some of y’all. Don’t ever tell me I’m being a deb again.

What’s today’s date?

Looking at all the metrics, I mean models, I think Philadelphia is likely to get more “snow” than Washington. I think Washington might keep it close early with a quick hit, but over the course of the game, I mean season, Philadelphia probably pulls ahead to a comfortable lead.

@mitchnick the weeklies were a very snowy run. Stating the second week of Feb straight through into March a solid 1.5-2.5” mean every week. That’s high for a 7 day mean at range.

I’m not sure it’s always the right approach but they clearly have told Hurts to play very safe and just don’t make mistakes. The handful of times they needed to open it up he was able to do it and we’ve seen him pass effectively on the past, they just feel they have such an advantage on both lines they don’t need to play that way. It’s not an accident. They invest so much into both lines. They spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on the line almost every year. 2 years ago they spent 2 first round picks on the D line in the same draft and now both are starters. They have plenty of misses but they invest so much capital in the trenches they end up with an abundance of talent there. It’s a philosophy.