psuhoffman

Last time the H7fgen shot up into western PA then got crushed by the flow as it tried to continue NE. This time its sliding ESE with the front and will intersect the h85 forcing along northern MD and southern PA.

That is the banding associated with the h85 fgen that is about to slide across our area from SW to NE. When that arrives is when things should start to change around the DC metro from 95 NW. For the northern MD crew, unlike the last event when the H85 and H7 forcing was way out of alignment and created the huge screw zone for us...this time it looks like they are going to line up for a time this afternoon from about 1-4pm where we will be on the NW side of the H85 forcing as the H7fgen slides across northern MD and southern PA. That is out window to see some really heavy snow.

About an inch so far on top of the old snow.

It's still too early to know much... because there isn't consistent heavy enough precip over the DC metro area yet. The initial banding went to the NW, which was predicted by the guidance BTW. Once that banding developing to the west moves into the area if the boundary layer does not cool and its still raining or a "white rain" situation, then it is time to start to revise expectations significantly. But right now not much was supposed to be happening...the spotty precip around the area now wouldnt be doing anything anyways...we need consistent heavy precip to cool the lower levels. We haven't wasted any of the QPF that was supposed to be accumulating snow yet.

Anytime its a marginal event those maps are awful because they assume no snow can accumulate at 33 degrees and frankly it seems it doesn't account for much at all at 32 either. And it applies a very low ratio for snow at 30-31 when in reality ratios are more determined by mid level temps and lift aligning with the DGZ than surface temps. Add in the low resolution... In short those maps are just awful.

I already have more than that says I'll get for the whole storm...stop it with those ridiculous things

Didn't know you were an Eagles fan

The panic in the obs thread is funny... I could go in there and really blow it up by pointing out "we could really use those 2-3 degrees we've lost in the boundary layer due to warming right about now"

I won about 100 on the Commies last night! Up about 1500 this season. I'm not a big fan of legalized gambling but if they're gonna allow it I'm gonna take advantage. If you are good with math and know enough there are some parleys you can make that are like taking candy from a baby and win like 70% of the time. The best is when you find an inequity that allows you the hedge both sides and win almost no matter who wins by parleying some really obvious things each team needs in order to possibly win the game. Bet both sides and as long as those things hit you win no matter wo wins!

I was just messing around

Just about all the analogs that flipped warm in Feb then cold again, the flip back happened right near March 1 and the snowstorms associated with those years happened in March. Late Feb has kind of been a wasteland around here historically for a while. Who knows why. Random probably.

That's actually a HECS but it's a few days too far out still to get excited yet, but AIFS has been all over that time period and other guidance has popped out the random big hit around there too. It's the period I am most interested in, pattern is relaxing but with a lot of cold still left hanging around. That's often a recipe for us.

Wait until heavy precip arrives to panic. If in a couple Hours it’s pouring rain and still 36 degrees then it’s time to panic.

Drink plenty of fluids

Ninjad. That looks a lot more realistic. Closer to my snow map. I might have to expand my lawsuit to class action.

Wait that isn’t the NAM???

NAMs have never had a handle on this event and gonna go to the grave with their weak sauce idea. For some locations that have mixing issues they might end up right for the wrong reasons but up here that’s gonna bust within the next 2 hours if this keeps up.

It’s not snowing that hard but there are some ginormous flakes. Bodes well for snow growth and ratios.

32/30 Been snowing lightly for about an hour but only sticking to the snow. Just started to pick up with big fluffy flakes now and driveway just caved.

I guess I need to copyright those things

before we start the radar hallucinations... 1am Sim radar 4am sim radar 7am sim radar 10am sim radar

It's not supposed to look like much for another few hours at least...don't spook the usual suspects...we don't need those posts already

I'm suing ECMWF for stealing my snow map