psuhoffman

At 48 hours the gfs has the low in the same location and the same mslp (1002) along the NC VA border. And I mean exact to the mile same location. Crazy consistency run to run.

Preach

It’s always been this way except for rare examples when we have a stable blocking pattern to lock in major features and an extremely amplified storm so models can easily pick up on it. The other 90% of the time we do this and act like it’s unusual. Why we forget that this is how it is and 48 hours out is still long enough for major changes is beyond me.

I keep expecting (maybe just hoping) they meet in the middle but for the last 24 hours the rgem has stayed put and everything else has slowly tended toward it. Of course I am not saying that continues but I’ll feel a lot better when I see the rgem shift 20 miles or more southeast.

Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy

I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else.

Significantly wetter to our SW initially...but have to see if its just quicker to get going or actually wetter.

I envy you this... as an Eagles fan, they've reached this spot where expectations are so high every year that there is almost no joy in the journey anymore and unless they win the SB its not a successful season. And yea I know how ridiculous that is, and I am not nearly as stupid about it as most...there are a LOT of Eagles fans that legit wanted to fire their coach when they started 2-2 this year. My father was one of them lol. I was like, ya'll full on crazy, but its just hard to get that excited by just making the playoffs when it happens almost every year. I kind of miss when I was younger and just having a winning season was seen as an accomplishment. It's less fun now.

Ninja'd

yea that convective type precip depiction was kinda crazy

I wouldn't put money on it, but I do think you have a fighting chance. If it turns into a shoot out, your QB has been impressive and Detroits defense is vulnerable. You lit us up a few weeks ago and our defense is significantly better than Detroit. You could pull the upset if JD has a good game.

If I was you I’d be rooting for the Rams also. For the same reason I am rooting for the Commanders lol

I’m rooting for you ETA: detroits defense is a mess it’s not impossible.

My thoughts on our most likely bust scenario have been documented. They aren’t based on any one run and especially not the 12k NAM or 48 hour HRRR both of which are garbage. But there is also the rgem and quite a few gfs ens members showing a NW track. It’s a possibility. I don’t like seeing anything that shows my fail scenario after I draw it up. That said we are not resigned to that fate. If we were I wouldn’t be “worried” I’d have accepted it and be cracking jokes about it. I worry when we have a legit chance to win and I don’t want it to slip away.

3k looks really similar to the euro

3k can be my therapy session for the afternoon. Looks much better. WTF do I care about frozen water so much? I need to do some hypnosis therapy and find out. Seriously. It makes no sense.

Yea but it’s already shifted the heavy snow up onto central PA. Let me clarify. I do not buy the crazy qpf cutoff on the rgem. I don’t think we will actually get nothing if it shifts NW some. But I could definitely see that 6”+ band of snow shift to our NW into PA and we’re left with another minor snow (like 3” maybe) instead. I’ve seen this type setup so many times. NW is the bigger bust risk even up here.

It shifted the 540 line from VA beach to DC in 2 runs lol

HRRR LOL I guess the RGEM isn't all alone anymore. Lets just hope this POS is as wrong as it was with the last one at this range! It probably is...just saying

Did you see the AIFS has an ensemble now lol

Serge

The first is all snow from DC NW, 2-4" type deal. (Actually its all snow probably from about 20 miles south of DC north) The second bigger storm unfortanatly is mostly rain (or ice) after maybe some snow in MD at the start due to a late secondary and the primary getting too far NW initially. You have to get pretty far north in PA (like north of i80) to stay snow during the meat of the storm with that one) But both are at a range where those details don't matter...its fun times coming for sure.

The long range (day 10+) continues to become less hostile looking as it gets closer. If you go back to around New Years we were now supposed to be entering into the "crap" pattern by now...and now its way out at day 13-15 and doesn't even look that bad anymore. Again, the guidance continues to push back and shift in the central pacific and have the pacific jet undercutting any ridging there...and so long as that keeps happening we should maintain at least a workable pattern given the amount of cold established. So long as we don't enter a truly hostile pattern that wipes out that cold we will be ok as long as we avoid one of those god awful NOT THAT long wave looks and I don't see that coming.

NW side is high potential either way... Something to note, both the GFS and Euro have had that duel band structure and I believe that will be true...but the Euro is keying the heavier snowfall in the NW band, and I also believe that is true. Historically the highest snowfall with these amplifying progressive boundary waves is near the NW edge of the snowfall *usually somewhere near the -8 850 isotherm) with another max closer to the R/S thermal boundary. A lot of the time that NW max area ends up further NW than guidance suggested heading in...but if you end up NW of that band it can drop of real quick to almost nothing. Being on the NW side is playing with fire in these but sometimes you get the jack that way also.

It's REALLY close with a setup around the 25th-26th but ends up splitting the energy between two closely spaced waves and both just barely miss south...but if it were to have consolidated better (not had that frontrunner) it would have been a hit. Besides the difference between a hit and a close miss at that range is noise. The potential is there in that window. I think that period is our best chance. Before that it's probably the deep south's once a decade shot at something.