psuhoffman

Snowfall is really fluky, especially at our latitude.

Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately.

It could trend either way, but there is no blocking so there could be more movement either direction with that wave than there was with most of the recent threats that had a track mostly locked in by a stationary blocked flow.

Depends, if that plot is 100% accurate yes. But we know at 15 days out there are errors and my "educated guess" at the most probable error is that its got way too much SER there. There is a lot of arctic air being discharged directly into the central US there, and so long as there ramains some trough in the pacific under the ridge my guess is that is going to get directed more east than that prog there shows.

It often shows something first, because it jumps all over the place run to run, but how is that useful since you don't know which solutions it spits out are right and wich are the crazy tangents.

Thanks. If you look at the plot I posted, those features all dump a LOT of cold into the went central US, and will exert pressure trying to press the trough east. The trough near Hawaii pushes the WPO EPO ridge poleward and east slightly, this mitigates the risk of something cutting off into the southwest typically. The ridge over the top combined with the TPV displaced south where it is dumps a ton of arctic air into western Canada and then the US and its going to press. I think the SER there is overdone. The big difference between that plot and when we had a horrible SER are the troughing in the pacific under the northern latitude ridge, and the -AO over the top. Those 2 features change the equation a lot.

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected. Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.

That wave strikes me as a 3-6" type thing wherever it ends up. Maybe slightly more in the jack zone. Similar to a lot of those boundary waves that popped up at the last minute in 2014 and 2015.

That last .08" makes all the difference

The models are less consistent in their errors, but that is a good thing. It's because they are better. So there is no one obvious automatic error anymore. The errors are based on smaller mistakes they may be making specific to each synoptic setup. But we know at day 7 or 10 there is likely to be an error. More so in some patterns than others. So we have to ask "what is the most likely error being made here" by each specific model in each specific situation.

It depends... I don't think as a blanket rule we just want something to our south anymore, and that was a typical bias across almost all guidance 20 years ago. Especially the GFS. Now it's much more nuanced. In a blocking regime, frankly, storms have been more likely to trend south recently. But each pattern is different and each synoptic situation is different. In the coming pattern it is a lot more likely that things could trend north significantly if the models are overdoing the amplitude of the TPV or wrong in the location of features at range. Of course if a NS wave were to come along right over the top it could squash it, like that storm in March 2014 that was supposed to hit PA then came south because of a wave over the top. But even in a progressive wave pattern it feels recently like the errors are more split between north and south...they are just larger in a non blocking regime since there is less locking in the track of the waves. I will say this though...in a progressive wave pattern more amplified trends mean north...and I like being on the side of getting to root for a bigger more amplified storm. When a system is north of you, you're kinda left rooting for the storm to be weaker and more pathetic, thats no fun lol.

In the end rain is a bigger risk than suppressed probably.

Yall are funny. The gfs is barely a miss to the SE. the ggem is barely a miss to the NW. meanwhile the solution shifts around every run. And we’re worrying about what? Obviously the final solution isn’t going to be known for a while.

I’m surprised he hasn’t found a way to say it’s a combo of both lol

Fine I’ll stop poking the bear.

It’s a secret message to Howard

Sold stick hold buy yes please Thank you

I spire with my little eye

I was only tryin to have a little border skirmish for fun and it escalated full nuclear fast But us obsessive stalker zeolites be like that

You must be a lot of fun at parties

Sorry not sorry, in fairness Philly is a tough spot for any QB, see Jordan Love

You've been right, no one is trying to take that way from you lol

Great catch, I was just thinking about that and looking at it, there are similarities in the pattern also.

That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime. If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo. I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either. There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet. This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it. Why and how did I become the optimist here?