psuhoffman

I was referring to putting out a forecast for a single storm at day 8. It might end up rain to Canada or suppressed to nothing for all we know. But didn’t southeast of us get that first storm? At least southeast of me lol. I guess it’s all perspective. I actually think this winter has been oddly diffuse so far with no defined track. One storm went really far south. One hit Bob Chill area with 3-5” And we got 1-2” One jacked just SE of DC and one just NW. there is a huge area in the east near to slightly above norm on snow but no area got crazy totals because the storms were all over the place.

Did you see the blocking on the euro? I think it’s rushing it but I think we get one more AO tank and one more period of blocking before time runs out.

Barney won't ever be the same

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level! To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive! I bow down to you sir.

but which normals are they using?????

TORCH

frankly its the same snow hole @RevWarReenactor lives in, if its for the geographic reasons I suspect it extends NE right along the Bay then continues NE and links up with the Delaware Valley near the canal to the snowhole in SW NJ that I experienced first hand growing up.

Oh hell that is DEFINITELY the reason for your snow hole

That's "incoming" right there

That is a perfect gradient right there!

Yea, while the AI has destroyed our little window around Jan 30-Feb 2, beyond that it's muting the warm up and is way ahead of schedule in how its evolving the pacific and high latitudes towards going back into a colder pattern. If that is the trade off, losing one low probability threat for a faster flip back to a better longer term pattern... I will take that.

Maybe to hide the fact he is a really bad forecaster?

Frankly I'm not familiar just going off what everyone here says...but I have no reason to doubt the Dundalk Snow Hole

But does it still flip us back cold by Feb 6 like the 6z run did? lol

Exactly, having a good pattern is like having an extra face card in a poker hand...its good but no guarantee. I'll go there... This is why having our bad patterns become "god awful" due to warming is a big deal...because we don't always score in good patterns...but historically we also sometimes do score in bad ones...if we lose the ability to fluke into snow in a bad pattern it hurts our climo in the long run a lot. That does NOT mean we can't snow and get cold when there is a good pattern...that is a totally different argument that I have NEVER made.

If you ever need a reminder of how much chance plays in all this... This was one of our least snowy January's And this was one of our snowiest lol

Sorry, did I speak any lies?

We definitely didn't max out... But given how dry its been, which is a cold enso staple, we did ok. We really only had 4 legit wave threats and the south and central part of this forum hit one of them and the northern 1/3 hit on another, one was a low end event, and one got suppressed. That is a pretty good hit rate...we just didn't have much opportunity because it was so dry. We had almost an identical pattern to 2009 and we did much much better wrt snowfall. It's a small sample size so who is to say whether we got lucky this year...or unlucky that year...but it could have gone worse! 2009 January looked like this and we had almost no snow at all to show for it!

You mean he might get one of his long range forecasts correct for the first time in like 9 years! BTW, calling for a warm Feb in a cold enso year is not exactly going out on a limb.

EPS is tanking the EPO and the AO is heading towards negative again by day 15. This is the inception of the flip back to cold. It looks like things are reloading again by Mid Feb.

Maybe but you can't chase what's already done. We failed in that nino. We waited years for a nino and it failed. Sucks...but this is not a nino so if they are chasing the lost opportunity for a big huge snow season by applying that standard to this season its a huge mistake...the bar for a W this year was just "please don't totally suck" and we've achieved that!

The monthly guidance is god awful at projecting the MJO, which is not shocking considering by day 15 the ensembles aren't all that great either frankly...but projecting the MJO out to like day 15 using more reliable guidance gets it near 6/7 at that point which is logically a week away from 8. The montly guidance stalls the wave to an unrealistic level given its behaviors this year. I would disregard which is also why I disregard the monthly guidance in general.

No and that is why the ensembles look exactly like that day 16 BUT its only a week away from getting to 8 which is ahead of schedule. If things flip back by Feb 20 we are ahead of the game.

Did you look at that 0z solution...like really look at how that played out? There were 3 NS Sw's involved...all of them had to be exactly where they were to make that work...and the initial STJ wave was rain, but then left enough energy behind that phased with another NS SW timed perfectly behind the cold push from the initial wave and...I mean come on forget thinking you would get anything like that 2 runs in a row from this range. I would be nervous believing something as convoluted as that nonsense even if it was 72 hours out not 200! The reason for the difference, other than just chaos, is one of those 3 NS waves ended up getting absorbed into the AK Vortex and never makes it into the equation this run. Look at hour 174 and compare to 0z...the NS system just north of MN is gone and that sets of a chain reaction that leads to a different solution...the runs are actually impressively similar up until that point.

Think of it this way... flip the situation...imagine if we were all warministas waiting all winter to get a nice MJO into the warm phases...we would be kinda pissed right now that after a slow amplified cold phase tour...its racing weakly through the warm phases and already headed back towards cold by the second week of Feb with hints the warm up might not last that long. This is the total opposite of how this went most of the last 8 years.