psuhoffman

I would prefer a coach with a style that has more variance. I will acknowledge a more aggressive coach with a more gutsy style will also lose more sometimes. They will have seasons that blows up and costs them a few games and they finish 8-5 and out of it totally. But there will be years it pays off and they upset a better team and maybe win it all. I prefer that. This is not a right or wrong thing its a preference. I have mine. You can have yours. They lost to a team with less talent last night. Notre Dame has a slightly lower recruiting rating the last 4 years than PSU! That part of your argument is invalid. They don't just lose to teams better than them, they also lose to teams on their same level. But more importantly, they lose EVERYTIME they play someone with more talent. They NEVER pull the upset. Football is a game of high variance. You should be able to win 1 of 3 chances v a slightly more talented team. But not the way Franklin coaches. He is very conservative. The way he coaches actually decreases variance, which is good if you are the more talented team and is why he never loses to Indiana or Purdue or any of the other lower level schools they play. But is also why they will never beat Ohio State.

I went back and looked deeper at the 3 week period I was comparing this upcoming pattern too in 2014. There were 6 significant precipitation events during that window. 1 was all snow 1 was half rain/snow 2 were all or mostly rain 1 was mostly ice 1 was a MECS but did mix with rain The first was a 4-8" snow event (progressive boundary wave) that jacked along and just NW of 95. The next was a double wave, the first was rain everywhere, the second wave flipped to snow across MD with about 7" up here and 2-4" north of Baltimore but little accumulation south of there. The next was a nasty ice storm with some sleet mixed in across the whole area. The next was the Feb MECS that started as snow, mixed with rain then ended as snow. The final wave was a rain snow mix across the area with a general 1-2" of snow. Obviously if the boundary were to set up further NW this time the results could be worse...but just wanted to establish a baseline to compare. I think some hear 2014 and just think of the snow, but there were plenty of rain events during that period also...we aren't likely to get all snow wave after wave from this time of pattern since the boundary will be shifting around wave to wave and we are pretty far south...we are latitudinally challenged, but if there is cold centered just to our NW we are unlikely to get totally skunked from such a pattern if it lasts any length of time, for the same reason. Each wave will take a slightly different track and we just need one or two to come in further southeast. FWIW the 0z EPS shifted the snow mean southeast some indicating we have a good chance to be on the winning side of one of these waves...but its a shotgun look with no ability to pinpoint which wave is the one.

What's his best win in the last 5 years? Sorry I don't make excuses, I expect results. I acknowledged in a recent post their recruitment has only recently recovered and improved. But that is all the more reason it's time to move on to a coach that can get more out of their now higher level of talent. Franklin does not coach the way the modern college game demands. The only way his style would work is if they had the talent level of Ohio State or Alabama and could just maul people at the line no matter how good they are. PSU is unlikely to ever get to THAT extreme A+ level, even in their hayday they were a A- level just below the top 5 schools in recruitment. To win a title with that level of talent you need a system that maximizes and gets more than the sum of your parts our of the talent. Franklin does not. It's not personal, I am not calling him a loser as a human being, but he is a loser in terms of his ability to get more out of his talent as a football coach. They will continue to be what they have been if they keep him, they will win all their games v lesser talent and go 10-2 and lose to Ohio St and Michigan and then when they run into a good team in the playoffs every year. Some are totally happy with that. I am not. I would rather they have a few years they are out of the top 20 but one year a decade they are a legit title contender than that.

@WxUSAF btw if you look at his record against teams that had a 4 year recruiting rating in the top 12 when he faced them it’s even more damning than the 1–17 record they were showing last night. Because sometimes a team overachieves or falls off in the rankings. But if you look at when he plays a squad with similar talent to his he is hopeless. It’s 1-22!

They took a bad dip during the turmoil post Paterno and they fully deserved too. It took me a long time to fully care much again and I played soccer for PSU. But in the last 10 years they’ve crept back into the top 10 in recruiting 4 years and had a year at 4. That’s about as high as they ever were. And plenty good enough to compete for a title if you have a coach that can elevate the talent sometimes, which they don’t. You’re 100% that nothing he did last night lost the game. Although I favor aggressiveness and would argue punting on 4th and short multiple times cedes control of the game flow to Notre Dame. I’d prefer to lose on my terms if I’m gonna lose. But the bigger issue is he did nothing to elevate them, again, when up against a team they can match or exceed their talent at the line of scrimmage. His record against teams with a similar talent level is atrocious. I’ll give him that he is really good at motivating them never to have a let down. They almost never lose to a lesser team and that gets them to 10 wins every year and a finish between 5-15. But his game style is to just lean on a dominant line on both sides and when he runs up against a team like Ohio State or Michigan that they can’t just maul at the line he does absolutely nothing different. No creativity. Nothing aggressive. Nothing to shake up the paradigm. He just tries the same thing and loses. Was what went down late his fault no. But it was maybe his fault they weren’t up more with 10 mins left and it doesn’t have to go that way. And maybe he does something bold and this one game it kills them. But over the years a better coach (like Notre Danes) would have won some of all these chances he’s had against top teams and that’s all in asking for. Not to win them all. Not to win most. Win maybe 1 out of 4. I’d rather they have a few more bad seasons where they finish out of the top 20 but one year every 15 or 20 they win a title than what they do now. They have the talent to do that. But not the way Franklin has them play imo.

This was the wave that had the hecs potential but we needed the NS to buckle a little further west and the 50/50 to be slightly further northeast. A couple of minor flaws in the pattern on a global level blew it. Oh well.

Somewhere in the area might get about 2” The average will probably be 1”. Some places will get a coating. But we’re obsessing over changes in .06 qpf here and 10 mile shifts in weak bands.

ok the PSU alumni are losers too bc they like the guy because he beats all the crap schools they play every year and so they always get a nice postseason vacation or get to act like their still college students 5 times a year when they beat up on some mid level school not on their level. It’s pathetic. They are losers too.

I hope PSU fires Franklin so I can root for them again. I don’t root for losers and that guy is a huge loser! They will never ever sniff a championship with him. And before people start with “PSU isn’t A level” yes I know their recruiting classes aren’t on the same level as Ohio state or Alabama. They shouldn’t win as often as they do. But they just lost to a team with a lower recruiting class than them. PSU is usually somewhere around 8-12 in recruiting talent rank. Schools below that win a national championship once every few years. But to do that you have to beat a team with more talent than you once in a while and Franklin never ever will because he is boring, scared, gutless, lacks any creativity and is a loser

These are all noise level changes

Wait a coating is less than 1/2”?

I remember being in the weather station at PSU the day before the 2000 storm arguing with the meteorology professor they had on duty after the 12z guidance came in that something was way off. All the models totally missed the amplified of the upper level feature coming across the MS valley. It was super easy to spot on the WV loop that there was a completely closed SW where guidance had a much weaker feature and as a result the gulf moisture was already affecting north and the trough was taking on a negative tilt way ahead of schedule. He saw it but said there was no way models would be 200 miles off in 12 hours and maybe it might clip the outer banks or Boston as worst lol. I’m sure I was driving him nuts. The next day he didn’t want to talk to me lol. I remember me and my friend (he’s the one with the place in Vermont now) driving Jon Neese crazy the year before because he didn’t trust the ETA (too new) and relied on the NGM and AVN and twice in a row the ETA nailed a snow event for up there. I had no skill at all back then it was pure luck. Actually the fact I had no idea what I was doing is probably why I caught both, I was naive enough to question everything and not just trust the most reliable data.

That would fit because our elevation difference is on average a 1 degree difference in general.

My weather station hasn’t been above 31 but who knows if it’s accurate

It totally depends where the boundary sets up. It won’t work if the trough axis is centered too far west. Right now I like where it’s centered on the means.

Exactly where it places an area of .15 qpf v .08 or changes across the board of .05 qpf are noise. Unfortunately in such a minor event that noise is the difference between a coating and a 1.5-2” snowfall. But we still don’t have the ability to pin that down.

The h7fgen shifted way northwest and ended up completely disconnected to the main WAA and h85fgen banding. This created a dead zone north of the main bullseye which was DC southeastward and that band that ended up putting down 4-8" way up into west central PA. That northern band died out as it shifted east and ran into the NS shred zone from the 50/50 spinning up there. That disconnect is what lead to the minor "bust" across MD and into your area. It also didn't help that there was a disconnect from best lift and the DGZ such that even what qpf we got didn't maximize ratios to the level we would have liked along the northern tier of the snowfall zone.

It was a 3 week period of non stop boundary waves and we were riding the boundary with each one with mixed results wave to wave. It was fun.

I remember in 87 in NJ leaving school during one of those snowstorms when 2-3" had already fallen and it was coming down like a blizzard...took an hour to get home and I lived a mile away. Remember another storm where I was waiting an hour for the bus in like 6" of snow and it took almost until lunch to get to school then then took 2 hours to get home that night after about 10" total fell. We did get a 2 hour delay the next day! High school in northern VA I remember several times in 1994 waiting for a bus in ice, one time I waited over an hour and my father told me to just come in and forget it. I don't think the bus ever came. A storm in December 1996 waiting in 2" of snow. I have no idea which is the right way, but we definitely got softer. When I was a kid school was cancelled for weather when it was just not possible to get there, and often they didn't cancel when I couldn't get there lol. Probably somewhere between that and now when they cancel for some snowshowers was a happy medium.

The long range reminds me most of very late January through mid February 2014 right now. That was not the coldest period of that winter, there were a TON of waves in that window and they were about 50/50 rain v snow across our area. There was an ice event thrown in, a rain to snow that thumped 70 north, and of course that mid Feb MECS. But it was fun times.

I can see a win within this paradigm

EPS snowfall much improved day 10-15 also

I know a pure snowfall map is not the best way to break down a threat window...but I already laid out what I like about the pattern yesterday and nothing has changed. So just for sh!ts and giggles, this is a good looking 7 day mean for a week 2 period. First of all its 7 days not a 16 day mean... and at day 10+ you're not going to have a uniform track across guidance so you get this washed out area of snowfall, but its centered on us and extends well to our south and north...plus the "extra" snow to our NW is lake effect not synoptic, we are the epicenter of the snow max on this plot from synoptic snow. This is about as good a signal as you will see on a week 2 snow mean. I was waiting for the ensembles snow plots to start to match the potential and todays 12z GEFS did. Again a snow map is not that useful but it shows what I wanted.

There is a window around the 18-20 where the boundary could shift to our NW. But it depends on wave spacing. Right now things are trending towards a bit too much space between the departing trough/50/50 and the next wave amplifying a bit too far west creating a ridge in between. But that can change...but even if it did go down that way we are only talking about a 2 day period and one wave that would likely cut to our NW. After that we would be back in the game and the next wave becomes a threat...again contingent on the details of wave spacing. We don't have blocking anymore so we would need something to time up correctly, come at us while we have the 50/50 from a departing wave, have waves come at us in pieces and not phased. We pulled it off multiple times in 2014 and 2015. I know it hasnt worked much lately but as I pointed out yesterday one of the main culprits for that was the full latitude -PDO induced central pacific pattern. That causes systems to want to amplify way too much into the western US. If the pacific ridge is displaced northeast which directs the cold into the eastern US more it gives us a much better chance. We had that in January 2022.

Not necessarily, there are two types of Nina base states. One with a flat pacific ridge and more westward displaced north american trough (typically in western canada or worse into the southwest US) and one with a more poleward pacific ridge which pushes the downstream trough eastward and extends cold into the eastern US. In the former nina type the eastern US is a torch and there is typically no snow anywhere near us, think years like 2008, 2012, 2023. The storm track doesn't matter at all in these years since there is no cold to work with. In the latter(years like 2001, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2022) our typical fail mode is that storms tend to develop too late for our area and miller b us. The STJ is suppressed and the northern stream systems get going too late. Places just to our northeast Philly to Boston did much better in those years. In neither type of nina are lake cutters the primary reason we don't get much snow.