psuhoffman

Greatest sketch ever

It’s perfect. Duel waves. The first lays down 2-4” across the NW parts of the forum and the second flush hits 95 and between the two the whole area gets 6”+

Oh ya I lit that sh!t up

Not true we got a 1-3” snow in early January but you dismissed that. Dude it’s ok. I’m not picking on you. You be you. But you gotta admit looking back it was kinda funny to go on a rant about needing snow 3 weeks after we got a hecs for Xmas and while all the models were already showing the next epic pattern developing.

It’s ok. Ji is a master baiter.

We probably want the same things. I’m just sometimes a little more rational about it.

I’m defending you here. Mostly.

He complained in between snowpacalyps and snowmageddon in 2010 because we went a whole month without a HECS if you can believe that injustice.

And in fairness Ji wants everyday to be a weather disaster so…

Classic WAA thump look

I'm pretty familiar with LWX, CTP,PHI, ALY, BTV, GYX, BOU, RIW, SLC and ABQ, rarely read anything from the others.

The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work. Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections.

EPS looks good for the period of Jan 20-25 but not focused on any one wave...there is a bit of an uptick around the 21st compared to the rest of the period. But it favors some wave sliding by under us during that window.

EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary.

On the GEFS the wave around the 19-20 is the most iffy wrt thermals, but the GEFS would indicate we would likely be on the snowy side of any waves in the week after that. EPS details still rolling in

GFS actually shows how that kind of pattern, if it actually ends up close to the current longwave projections, would likely play out. 3 waves, one misses north, one south, and one flush hit. They aren't all going to take the same exact track and if we get that kind of SW to NE oriented thermal boundary with the cold centered to our NW we are likely to score eventually as those waves keep riding the boundary. They wont all hit, but they won't likely all miss either.

Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest. But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime. None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours.

First of all you're drilling down to a single play to make a point on a narrative I developed over years of examples. Throwing the ball there is not that agressive. I am totally sure the play call was not for Allar to freeze up for 3 seconds and then throw across his body as he is being hit across the field. I am sure he would have preferred he make that first read, which was much more safe, or throw it away. That was a brain fart on Allar. But Franklin put him in that spot when he punted on 4th and 2. That handed the game script to Notre Dame. Yea if they go and dont get it they lose, but its on their terms. Or you give them the ball at the 30 there and make a stop and get the ball back with more time and not deep in your own end. I would prefer a more aggressive coach that pushes the envelope and takes risks and plays the game on HIS terms! That is my preference. And I admit that will blow up and lose you games sometimes. My father has this argument with me all the time. He thinks the Eagles coach is sometimes way too aggressive, which is funny because sometimes I think he isn't even aggressive enough and want him to be 100% balls to the walls Detroit style! Go go go, take every chance and let the chips fall. Take the game and if you lose lose because you screwed up not because you let the other team hang around and beat you. If I lose I want it to be on my terms. Dont let the other team have any control over the game script. That's how you upset better teams and make a run. And yes it will cause loses, I am willing to accept that, for the times it brings upset wins!

Everyone is crapping on the Kuchy maps because their ratios busted bad last time, but predicting ratios is part of the process of predicting snowfall...and sometimes you just get it wrong. In this case the Kuchera maps for the most part are not predicting crazy high snowfall ratios and seem about what I would expect. All the snowfall maps have flaws, the main one being they are only as good as the predictions they are based on.

Yes, like it was yesterday. It helped we had a deep arctic airmass in place leading in. Also helped that we got a perfect trajectory on the STJ moisture feed and so dynamic cooling took over and made all the difference. It's very difficult to warm air with a wetbulb of 15 degrees above freezing during heavy precip quickly. It thumped for 6-8 hours and we piled up the snow before the mid levels could get wrecked. It did eventually flip to ice but not until the thump did the work and then the cold front froze us up good quick so we didn't lose any snow. Some places in MD even got around a foot from that west of Baltimore. Not sure we can expect anything like that, as you said, but it does illustrate how many paths there are to a win if you have cold around and progressive waves being directed at us along SW to NE oriented boundary. In that case we had about as awful a synoptic setup as possible and got a significant snowstorm out of it!

I would prefer a coach with a style that has more variance. I will acknowledge a more aggressive coach with a more gutsy style will also lose more sometimes. They will have seasons that blows up and costs them a few games and they finish 8-5 and out of it totally. But there will be years it pays off and they upset a better team and maybe win it all. I prefer that. This is not a right or wrong thing its a preference. I have mine. You can have yours. They lost to a team with less talent last night. Notre Dame has a slightly lower recruiting rating the last 4 years than PSU! That part of your argument is invalid. They don't just lose to teams better than them, they also lose to teams on their same level. But more importantly, they lose EVERYTIME they play someone with more talent. They NEVER pull the upset. Football is a game of high variance. You should be able to win 1 of 3 chances v a slightly more talented team. But not the way Franklin coaches. He is very conservative. The way he coaches actually decreases variance, which is good if you are the more talented team and is why he never loses to Indiana or Purdue or any of the other lower level schools they play. But is also why they will never beat Ohio State.

I went back and looked deeper at the 3 week period I was comparing this upcoming pattern too in 2014. There were 6 significant precipitation events during that window. 1 was all snow 1 was half rain/snow 2 were all or mostly rain 1 was mostly ice 1 was a MECS but did mix with rain The first was a 4-8" snow event (progressive boundary wave) that jacked along and just NW of 95. The next was a double wave, the first was rain everywhere, the second wave flipped to snow across MD with about 7" up here and 2-4" north of Baltimore but little accumulation south of there. The next was a nasty ice storm with some sleet mixed in across the whole area. The next was the Feb MECS that started as snow, mixed with rain then ended as snow. The final wave was a rain snow mix across the area with a general 1-2" of snow. Obviously if the boundary were to set up further NW this time the results could be worse...but just wanted to establish a baseline to compare. I think some hear 2014 and just think of the snow, but there were plenty of rain events during that period also...we aren't likely to get all snow wave after wave from this time of pattern since the boundary will be shifting around wave to wave and we are pretty far south...we are latitudinally challenged, but if there is cold centered just to our NW we are unlikely to get totally skunked from such a pattern if it lasts any length of time, for the same reason. Each wave will take a slightly different track and we just need one or two to come in further southeast. FWIW the 0z EPS shifted the snow mean southeast some indicating we have a good chance to be on the winning side of one of these waves...but its a shotgun look with no ability to pinpoint which wave is the one.