psuhoffman

TT is awesome and it’s free, but it’s got about the lowest resolution and least sophisticated snowfall algorithms of every outlet, except maybe those 1986 Donkey Kong level maps ncep still puts out on their defunct page they still update for some reason. And even if the TT maps were the most accurate using one that round to the nearest whole number in a C-2” event seems like an interesting choice. Again, just look at the raw QPF, apply what you think the ratio should be, and be done with it.

Come on man. It’s a C-2” event. Just look at the raw qpf and piece it together. Do we really need to analyze every type of snowfall clown map for this?

Can someone post a map showing the soil moisture superimposed with a cross section showing DGZ, CAPE and VVs

If it busts slightly high on qpf it will be too high but not necessarily because of ratios

Looking at the hrrr the ratios don’t look that high. It has me at 1.9” off .13 qpf. That’s about 14-15:1 which is honestly close to what I average up here. Down by DC it has 2” off .17 qpf so 11-12:1 which isn’t super high given temps. That won’t verify on the tarmac but 11-1 could be realistic for most places.

Yes. There isn’t that much difference between 1994 and 2014 and 2015 honestly. There was another shorter comp period in Feb 1993 also. Slight changes in the centering of the features lead to different results. 1994 the trough centered further west which is why it lead to more ice v snow. Even though even up here none of the storms were pure snow I’d love to repeat that. According to local coop data it was a string of 3-6” mix events that built a glacier. I remember that winter visiting my cousins in Harper’s ferry WV and they had a solid glacier on the ground all winter! Fairfax ended up slightly too far south and unfortunate most storms were pure freezing rain. 1993 was similar. 70 north got crushed and it was less favorable further south. again a further west trough axis. But it was really close. For now I like the axis of the features better, more like 2014 2015. But that’s something to watch out for. If the cold gets centered too far west it opens up the dreaded SER issue.

On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid. Old school we got those things more often. And they were great.

How did we all miss that. We should have a thread about this.

Pop copy was underrated

.5-.8 qpf falls south to north before we lose the mid levels on that scenario.

You’ve been handling it so well. I couldn’t tell.

If I’m hungry enough I’ll eat Bambi

Greatest sketch ever

It’s perfect. Duel waves. The first lays down 2-4” across the NW parts of the forum and the second flush hits 95 and between the two the whole area gets 6”+

Oh ya I lit that sh!t up

Not true we got a 1-3” snow in early January but you dismissed that. Dude it’s ok. I’m not picking on you. You be you. But you gotta admit looking back it was kinda funny to go on a rant about needing snow 3 weeks after we got a hecs for Xmas and while all the models were already showing the next epic pattern developing.

It’s ok. Ji is a master baiter.

We probably want the same things. I’m just sometimes a little more rational about it.

I’m defending you here. Mostly.

He complained in between snowpacalyps and snowmageddon in 2010 because we went a whole month without a HECS if you can believe that injustice.

And in fairness Ji wants everyday to be a weather disaster so…

Classic WAA thump look

I'm pretty familiar with LWX, CTP,PHI, ALY, BTV, GYX, BOU, RIW, SLC and ABQ, rarely read anything from the others.