psuhoffman

Well the "valley" I am in there is at like 900 feet so the ridges aren't that dramatic, its more a plateau than true ridges with only about 300 feet difference between the peaks and valleys until you get off Parrs Ridge completely.

I meant in reality not on models at day 4

Odds are at this range there will be an error in where the baroclinic boundary sets up and the wave tracks, but in recent years its been equal chances whether that error is NW or SE. But a typical error NW puts us into good snow. A typical error SE leaves us smoking cirrus.

This is a different synoptic setup, the results yesterday do not have much to say about this next threat. That does not mean we don't get fringed again, but its a different set of circumstances.

Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results.

Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win. There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one.

Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades. If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately! Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late. But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL

Agree with all this but recently we’ve seen waves that rely on baroclinicity out down impressive qpf, not just around here but I’ve seen that trend. I spend a lot of time up in Vermont and they’ve had a few crazy dumps up there in recent years where a progressive frontal wave dropped 20” without much dynamics or amplitude to the wave. Seems there is a higher bar than there used to be with these things. To be clear I’m not saying huge upside but it doesn’t seem to take much to squeeze out a decent snow of the wave takes the right track and there is a decent temp gradient.

Chuck, you're right a ridge there is not ideal, but if we couldn't get a snowstorm in that look we would almost NEVER get them in cold enso seasons or with a -EPO. We do sometimes get lucky with this exact kind of evolution, if we have a -AO and -NAO. It's not the ideal perfect HECS look no, but its about as good as we get in a cold enso season with a -PDO. It's still negative just not as much so. We do get snowstorms in a -PDO, its just harder.

the last storm didn't listen to me

But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now

Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential.

you think they have shame?

Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress. There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm. In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time.

That composite is skewed by a LOT of nino storms...its not as far off if you only look at cold enso non nino snowstorms. The fact we are not in a nino lowers our chances of a major snowstorm significantly, but often when we do get the fluke cold enso snowstorm they do not match the larger composite. Also, there is a huge difference IMO between the -PDO regime we've been in recently and the coming look with a full ridge bridge from the NAO all the way into the north pacific, and a trough underneith it towards Hawaii. It's not nearly as hostile and those other factors around it matter just as much. It's not our BEST snowstorm look but we've had snows in worse looks than that. Its maybe a 7/10 look imo. I don't think the HECS is likely but I think we have a legit threat at something like the ICON or tonights GFS run spit out.

This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly alone

it is what it is

At least this GFS run knows where its supposed to put the death band damnit

We can still get a win that way, but it might involve rooting for the NS to just GTF out of the way enough instead of a sloppy phase

But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right

If we can get a non super nino with a better PDO

it does if it allows the NS to get out ahead instead of diving in behind.

at 84 the STJ wave is "better" but the flow over the top is flatter...

Lastly, we could get lucky with the GFS super bomb solution, but historically this type of scenario, even if it does come together...is more likely to have MECS not HECS level results. Too much can go wrong for our area to max out into HECS territory with these unless we get super lucky. Maybe we do, we've been super unlucky plenty lately. But if we end up with a 4-8 or 6-10" snowstorm from this type of setup that should be taken as a total run through the street naked win here...regardless of if some lucky shmucks somewhere to our northeast get 20".