psuhoffman

@HighStakes the high res guidance is all tightening the gradient as predicted, but on the PA side of the border. We should be ok.

@mitchnick didn’t realize you’re like 10 miles north of me now. What part of Hanover, might make a difference here north v south side.

Latest hrrr

No it’s just about 1-2” less across the boards. Dryer.

Here’s the band we need to hope sets up for us in northern MD

The heavy precip in northern KY has my attention.

The one I posted is the latest rap.

Clear your cache or refresh. It loaded the old map. Just to clear it up the rap was sinking south the last 24 hours after being crazy stupid north yesterday at unicorn range for that model. The last 2-3 runs have started to creep north again.

Rap also creeping north along the PA line the last couple runs. We’re getting into range where these trends could be legit.

Latest Hrrr still has the northern banding and places it right along the PA line. Implies 6-8” there with a sharp cutoff 10 miles into PA. Another nowcast is to see how much if any minimum there is between the two bands.

Latest from NWS probabilistic

If the latest run isn’t hiccup it’s starting to look like my snow map lol. There would be another 1-3” after this.

Agree, have to know your climo. When I lived in NJ and NVA I used 10:1 most times. Up here I actually avg 15:1 or higher many storms if it’s cold.

I’m fairly confident that 6-10” band I’ve been expecting somewhere near or north of 70 will occur now. But how far north it sets up is gonna be the question. Guidance is now tightening up the gradient along the pa line. Somewhere within 20 miles either side is going to be victory and agony.

Tucked

I’m seeing some signs of the northern MD banding we want for those north of 70 on guidance finally

I wasn’t exaggerating when I said this was the best cold enso pattern since 1996. It will take some luck to cash in to that same level again, but the potential is there.

24/7 while we wait make sure you check out the porn in the long range thread.

6-8” is definitely still doable up here. Most guidance indicates about .3-.4 qpf. If that ends up .5 instead (which is a super minor error) that’s 6-8 with our likely ratios. I’d hoped to see the fringe zone shift north another 20-30 miles so we could feel more comfortable instead of sweating radar trends this evening but we’re not out of it by any means.

But if we want to max our potential we actually want that kind of gradient. Because what causes that is the combination of the h7 fgen and the moisture transport hitting the wall of confluence which adds even more convergence can create a really a good band. That’s how you get those surprise 6-8 sometimes even more, bands on the northern edge. But when that happens it’s going to be banked up against the fringe and the combination of confluence and subsidence will create a really sharp cutoff. Places just 10 miles north of where the 6-12” band set up in PA last Feb got 1”. If we want any shot at 6”+ we want that! But we want the band to be over us and the cutoff in PA. That’s all. If that banding doesn’t develop or stays weak, and there are times that does happen if the mid level forcing is weak or too disconnected from the best moisture transport, then there wouldn’t be a sharp cutoff. But in that case I think we can kiss anything more than about 4” goodbye bc that h8 fgen band is not making it up here and the subsidence north of that might even hurt us if it gets close, and with a more gradual taper we’re probably in a 2-5” zone north to south across Carroll county.

I was referencing those storms as similar setups wrt a sharp northern snowfall cutoff. Models still struggle with pinning down the exact location and qpf with the h7 banding near the northern periphery of these type waves. They did it just last winter in Feb. The banding shifted north at the last minute and places forecast to get 1-3” in central PA got 6-12”!

26/10 smoking cirrus on the whole the 12z suite was a bit of a letdown for the MD line. Northern guidance went south and south went north. But I was expecting we would gain some ground this close. Confluence isn’t really that strong imo the SW just isn’t as amped and so the mid level jet is directed more latitudinally which limits the ability of the gulf moisture to punch north into the flow as effectively. But it’s still super close for the area and a 20 mile last minute shift or an extra .2 qpf is common and that’s all we need so I’m holding steady despite not seeing what I wanted 12z. RAP is trending north again and latest HRRR was pretty good. ETA: I saw some posts expecting the gradient to be less severe but it will be. Think back to Jan 30 2010. Westminster got 6”, the PA line 2-3 and 10 miles into PA not a flake! Jan 2019 10 miles south of me got 6”, I got 2” and 10 miles north nada. We just have to hope that cutoff ends up just north of the PA line and not just south of it. I still lean that way.

There isn't really a north tick, the more south models are coming in north but the more north ones are coming in south...they are converging on the solution, but the NWS had already factored on this and was a blend so I don't see why they would need to adjust...

The most recent run I see is 0z