psuhoffman

The storm that just fringed me to the south was rain on all guidance at this range.

I think it depends on other variables. An epo alone still won’t do it. Especially if the epo is linked to a wpo ridge with a full latitude central pac ridge. That leads to too much SER. The key to 2014 and 2015 were other variables going our way. In both the pacific had a trough under the ridge. We have that now although super long range guidance wants to establish a canonical Nina look but I don’t buy it until it gets inside 15 days. It’s been stuck at day 17-20 all year. 2014 there was a ridge from the epo over the pole that depressed the trough in the east. 2015 a TPV lobe got stuck in Quebec doing the same. Those were critical factors in making those years work. We seem to have some of those same factors on long range guidance. My interest in the pattern goes beyond the epo but there are other more critical similarities to 2014-2015 as well. Those matter more imo than the epo.

I’m sorry but our bar now is “it’s better than our worst winter ever”? We’ve really been traumatized

Gfs is probably gonna suck bc the fv3 does and they are usually similar. Stronger southern wave means less moisture transport into our area. We’re actually better off now with a weaker wave that allows moisture to stream north along the trough.

SREf beefed up a bit fwiw

3k. Sold

He might mean the 3k NAM which has a period of maybe mod snow for an hour.

I’m just trying to get 1-2”. That’s probably the win here. This is close.

It’s still dropping the NS down on top. If that damn SW was anywhere else on the planet this would be a bigger threat. But the trough axis is further NW initially and it really gets a healthy moisture feed way further NW initially. I think it’s still going to be deamplifying as the NS shred factory descends but it’s got a shot to get decent moisture into the area depending on how the trough interacts.

NAM up to NAM things

I have a suggestion where he can go

There’s a little wave on the GFS around the 22nd very reminiscent of how we got snow in 2014 2015. Obviously it won’t happen that way but something like that fits the pattern and those discreet waves riding the thermal boundary tend to over perform in the short range.

Still waiting on the 12” it gave me a few days ago.

If we bump up another inch into blue I’d do cartwheels. It’s about potential. Getting 2” from this is different from getting 2” from a threat with 10” potential.

Your name is fitting

I remember the times we had non stop threats to track in this thread.

18z euro is a win imo it holds back the NS SW a little more which allows a little bit more moisture to ride the trough and it also seems to direct a bit more mid level vorticity across the area to help wring it out. It’s the difference between some flurries and 1-2” across the area.

Gfs gave me 1.3”. If buy that lol

2016 was better for NW VA. Crazy deform band that set up there. 1996 was better for my area. On the whole they had similar snowfall distributions but 1996 was colder the week after and included 2 more snowfalls right after so that probably feeds into the nostalgia of that period.

That’s my route everyday. That exposed area just south of Hampstead is bad sometimes.

Local coop near here reported 36” but I’ve been told my locals it was even more than that.

I would be thrilled to eek out an inch from .07 qpf here...thats my goal.

If something amplifies around the 18th there is a risk of a cutter there...but its very possible nothing does and we just get a frontal passage.

There is a reason 90% of our HECS storms come in a true el nino year. There is a component missing here to get those kinds of widespread 20" totals no matter how "nino ish" the pattern might be. We've had one fluke cold enso HECS in the last 50 years. There could always be a fluke again, it happens, but realistically our high end potential in any non nino year is typically MECS.

I liked what the GGEM was doing at day 10