psuhoffman

It was moving it around run to run, as was the Hrrr and GFS, and I was actually concerned this split might happen because there were some runs that did this, but didn't want to deb up the thread leading into the storm. But the last 24 hours or so it was showing good banding with high ratios across the MD line area, as were most of the other CAM and global models. Yes there were "hints" this would happen, I noted a couple odd runs on the HRRR that showed this split scenario, and I think a run of the HRDERPS showed it correct, but it was never the majority depiction run to run across any guidance so it was easy for me to just keep it in the back of my mind but not worry about it too much. But these kinds of things are delicate and difficult to pin down. It's simple when you have a more amplified wave with a larger more expansive and uniform CCB induced precip shield. But these weaker waves where most of the heavy snowfall is depending on banding in specific forcing drive regions are more difficult to predict and you get more fluky variance.

I think across the board ALL the guidance was a bit overdone and the storm just ended up dryer and weaker than they depicted. The places winning with 8-10" were the places the guidance was spitting out crazy 16" totals! Across the board most places are going to end up under what the guidance was showing. It happens.

These are the same...as the ULL crosses the area it wrings out what's left of the moisture behind the weak developing coastal. This evening would be the time.

Unfortunately some of that stuff will dry up once it gets east of the Apps due to downsloping and that the upper energy is sinking a bit south...but its going to be VERY close...maybe this one it goes our way.

The euro was giving you 9" yesterday! It busted just as bad as the GFS across MD. Now if you are talking about the time period around 72-100 hours when the GFS has a few runs where it had the axis of heaviest snow way up in PA yea that was way off...but before that the euro had a few runs it tried to cut, then a run it went way too far south and washed out, we can go back and forth. Overall the euro was better I am not denying that. But both the Euro and GFS yesterday showed similar snowfall across MD and they both busted.

I am a little worried that its sinking south too much and we might end up north of much of the ULL associated banding. Especially along the PA line.

Every forecast I saw including mine, had that max down near DC and points southeast. I had it SLIGHTLY too far north but not by that much. The real bust was in the banding just north of there associated with the H7 forcing, the models expected there to be more overlap and have those two features connected, in reality the H7 band pushed up way into central PA and left a huge dead zone in between the h85fgen zone that hit DC south and the banding up in PA. That killed a lot of MD. This was missed by the euro also which had 6-8" across northern MD.

Shame the better guidance is not aligning the NS and STJ. The next NS wave is actually much better but there is no southern wave for it to work with, the STJ wave before took all that energy off the table.

You two might be arguing over time ranges...the GFS was way too far north for a time at like 72-100 hours then it corrected. By yesterday the GFS and Euro were pretty close together...the Euro gave me 6" yesterday and as recently 7" on the 0z run last night...it busted on the banding in northern MD also. It did nail the main banding that hit south of DC though. The band it put over northern MD ended up up in central PA. No model had that correct.

I think it's all a matter of perspective. I get a LOT of snow up here from 1" at a time minor events that add up...but I would trade all of them in to get a few more inches from actual snowstorms! I don't even notice those 1" things. I've done really poor in our actual "storms" recently. In the end I think both area's have done equally bad wrt to averages, but DC has hit on a higher % of actualy snowstorms and that matters more to me than the seasonal total. I would take a winter where I get 20" from 2 storms than a winter where I get 30" but it all comes 1-3" at a time. That is just me.

yea I don't know what he is on about right now... his intricacies aside he is usually really good at pattern recognition but right now he seems keyed on one specific thing and not factoring in the whole pattern. Maybe because recently that one thing, specifically the N Pacific around Alaska has been driving the bus...but in this case I don't think so. That trough under it is very different and creates a different downstream reaction. The pattern all around it is very different, and a full high latitude ridge bring that ends up extending into the north pacific is not the same as the -PDO driven pattern we've been in.

I know the last 3 winters I was at 43% of climo, I think for the whole post 2016 period I am at about 48% but that includes that crazy 2021 year where I got 50". It's been bad up here, I think the handful of times I post those nice snow pics when it's just raining in DC gives a false impression its been good up here when its been even worse wrt averages than DC. But I totally get it... everyone is focused on their backyards and in many of those years I still managed to get more snow than DC...but averages say I should be getting WAY more snow not just a little lol.

I think it's just bad luck exacerbated by small sample size. We've been in a generally bad pattern for a long time, which means less snow chances. When you reduce the number of snow events it increases variance and the chances of something like this happening if you get unlucky a few times. Additionally we've been stuck in a nina like pacific base state, and that does increase the chances of sliders and storms that affect further southeast in our regions MORE wrt averages. My area for instance, dud REALLY well in good snowfall years like 1996, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2015. Yes everyone did good...but up here got crazy high snowfall in those years...over 100" in 2010 and around 90" in 2014 for example. We haven't had many of those "good" snowfall years lately for this area to clean up. In bad years, we do tend to do better...but not as much better wrt to averages than in better years. WRT Baltimore, I think its just been bad luck...you missed better snowfall by like 10 miles in either direction several times recently. I think over a longer sample size that will even out.

But now that northern MD got fringed @Deck Pic doesn't get to have his trial And we should put to bed that "joke" we do get fringed up here a lot, DC has got more snow than this area in a singular event a handful of times just recently! But it's true we won't get any sympathy because of all the times we get snow when they are just getting rain, and the fact that even in those years by the end of the season most of this area up here will end up with more snow...it just hasn't been as MUCH more as averages would say we should get recently. But the fringe is real, it actualy does happen, and it is something to worry about up here when guidance has us on the northern edge. We don't always win out in those situations and recently we've had some fails.

It's probably my fault...because of my location on top of one of the highest points in east central MD right along the PA border I often do disproportionately well in very marginal events, like the 4" I got in November when even places right around me a few miles away barely got an inch! This probably gives a false sense to the board that this area up here has done better than it has recently in general. Only the very highest ridges up here have actually done ok, I feel really bad for places just south of me or in some of the valleys up here who have had it really bad recently. They have not cashed in like me in the marginal temp storms and they have missed all the coastal or slider storms to the south. The worst screw zone wrt averages in our region, which as a whole hasn't done well recently, has been that area.

2.5" on the board

which run, its been going back and forth between dryest and wettest run to run lol

QPF looks pretty lame and the energy is deamplifying as it passes and starts to re-amp a little too late for us... but at the same time it doesn't take much to get a couple inches from these types of things...if we get any banding at all we could get a nice surprise but I am not expecting too much. Maybe another 1-2".

Yea north of DC up into southern PA got stuck in between bands...the 85h associated band (which I never thought we were in play for much from) actually shifted southeast a bit and the 7h band shifted WAY north (which isn't uncommon recently, models really really really struggle and seem to place this way too far south or miss it completely) and left northern MD in between. Oh well. Happens, we still got some snow.

Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets.

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s. The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal. I do! We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years.

Ya I was there

I had tickets to that game. I was so mad. Missed the snow game then had to take a train back 2 days later from NYC where I had plans that week.

I was pretty sure it understood when we had our little chat the other day