psuhoffman

NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fatties

This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north.

Herpderps

The good news is even the screw zone is 2-3”

You did ok the second game after hurts got hurt and you stacked the box. Do that again. Make them throw. You have a better chance.

We were never gonna get that. The wave is getting going way too late. Those of us west of the bay would actually be better if that coastal deform waited a few more hours to develop to max out the precip from the initial boundary wave initiated by the SW along the arctic boundary.

See Goff is not reliable. Make him beat you and take your chances.

Hail to the whatever they’re called now.

Still has the screw zone. This run over 95. Seems we are resigned that’s gonna affect someone in our sub. Looking at it closer I think my gut was right it’s a transfer kind of thing. The initial inland low initiated by the SW is trending weaker and as the coastal gets going the deform that develops cuts off the heavier precip quick to its west. Creates a gap zone.

Can you stop letting them run. If you lose at least make them pass the ball. Your best chance is to hope Goff craps the bed. You have less of a chance if you let them just run the ball all over ya.

I blame Ji for his negative energy. We are just collateral damage

I think it’s a transfer jump kind of issue. Seems as the costal starts to amp its killing the initial banding associated with the SW too fast and jumping us.

I’d like it if that damn gap between the stuff west of the blue ridge and the stuff 95 east would go away. It started snowing up lately and it’s now on more and more guidance.

In fairness the ai low resolution smooths things so we don’t actually know what it’s doing with banding within the general qpf field

Sorry was taking it too seriously

?

If you look at the eps the members are all over with where to put that NW band and the screw zone in between. This op run was just one of those random options from the permutations because it’s not capable of actually nailing the exact location of that feature. We could get one of the solutions that death bands us with 5-7” or we could get one of the 3-4” in between solutions. Just how it is. That’s why you forecasts a range and not an exact number !

Euro did a split and now sticks a huge part of our area in between the two good qpf bands. Could happen but guidance would struggle to nail those details even at this range. Hopefully lol.

I’ve been running around all day so I haven’t been able to make a map but it’s in my head and it looks a lot like this. Maybe a little less liberal with the 4-8 but I’m gun shy after busting high last time.

I wouldn’t mess with those roads around there in snow.

We seem to have the dumb angle covered

I think this is right but I think there is a small band that could get 8” in places but very localized and hard to pin that down. In general 3-5 probably will characterize the larger Max band well.

OMFG regarding the gfs qpf panic. 1. stop letting that damn blue/purple color change on the map influence your impression of the run. Yes green to blue is this dramatic change but if the actual qpf went from .53 to .47 that’s noise. It’s a .05 qpf difference. And that’s what it was for most places on the gfs. 2. the kuchera snowfall map took an additional hit because it looks like it reduced the ratios a little bit NW of 95. Maybe it has a warm layer it didn’t have. Maybe the VVs in the DGz are less aligned. I haven’t looked and probably won’t because going from a prediction of 7” from .46 qpf to 5.8” from .40 (Westminster) is Fucking NOISE!!! Both are within the same predicted range and neither would be a bust and if you think that level of change run to run is a big deal you’re in the wrong game.

It was never as bad as the rgem with the NW over amped thing too