psuhoffman

Yea the period around Jan 20 looks very promising to me. Don't let my minor disappointment over getting fringed and now the next 10 days looking kinda boring dissuade anyone. We had to wait a LONG time to score big a few times (and some places in this sub already scored). 1996 we waited around for weeks of a great blocking pattern before the Jan blizzard. 2011 we suffered for a whole month before that storm finally hit. We remember the snowstorms from good patterns and tend to forget the weeks of cold dry boring that is just as common in the types of patters we need to get snow.

The guidance has been incredibly good with this. The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out. Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us.

Agree. NS looks to be a shred factory for a while until then. 50/50 set up too far Sw is a big part of the issue. Too much of a good thing.

The trough is trending more positive every run. It’s going the wrong way.

I’m kinda thinking our best shot at a decent snow might be the NS out of the way more and allow the moisture to ride the trough more. It’s lower upside but getting any kind of phase is becoming unlikely.

Depends there are other paths. If the NS wave hangs back more it being out of the way could allow a better solution. But those playing nice was the best option.

Something could pop up. There are several waves and a clipper in the flow. But they all get shredded across all guidance right now.

I only got 4”. The northern 3rd of our area didn’t do so good. I average 40, LONG way to go to even get close to climo. But it’s been a better season than I expected so far I’ll admit that. Further south they are half way to climo from that one storm yes, but cold regimes are so rare down here anymore we kind of can’t afford to waste them only getting one decent event.

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern.

The ICON was closer to a bigger event...but the issue is if the STJ wave starts to amplify more and gets closer...but doesn't actually hit we could end up with nothing because as the coastal starts to get going it will cut off the precip streaming north along the inverted trough with the northern stream low to the north. So it becomes an all or nothing situation. A weaker STJ wave opens the door to some kind of in between event with moisture training along the trough.

it's really close, agree this run was going to be a close miss...but amplify that NS SW and get that trough slightly less positive and it could have been a good outcome. It was one more trend like what it just did away from a hit.

I have no doubt this is the key to things going better so far... if that was still down around -3 I have no doubt we would have that awful ridge north of Hawaii causing every wave to dig into the southwest and pump a SER anytime everything isnt perfect everywhere else in the pattern.

As opposed to this look which is what was plaguing us the last 8 years...

To add visuals. The trough under the WPO is significant and changes the equation. If there was a ridge there like in recent years feeding a full latitude ridge into the WPO that feeds into a full latitude trough into western N America which of course leads to our out of control SER torches. This is a different look and is likely related to the relaxation of the PDO which was why that opened the door to significantly better outcomes this winter.

see my post right after yours lol

These things still run in cycles... if the AO and PDO are both going through a decadal flip right now (they could be but its too soon to say for sure) maybe we are about to head into a heater. Of course keep expectations in check...heater periods are not necessarily what they once were, I don't think the 1800s or 1960s are walking through that door anytime soon, but we can probably pull off a run like 2003-2016 again. Snowfall is really fluky and we dont always end up with a big number around here even in a "real winter" 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 were all "real winters" with periods of sustained cold and some snowfall around our area we just got unlucky and didn't score any flush hits those years. 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2015 we got the cold and the big snows. But it felt like legit winter "most" years during that stretch unlike recent years where we spend a majority of the "winter" in a fall jacket.

TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015.

Transitioning to the long range again... the EPS shifted the trough axis east in the day 10-15 period. The AO/NOA is relaxing but looks neutral not hostile. The ridge does retrograde into the WPO domain, which as Chuck pointed out is not ideal, however I've noted guidance continues to indicate troughing in the central pacific underneath the WPO and EPO ridge. This creates a significantly different effect than when the ridge in the central pacific is full latitude being fed from the tropics. It's a much less hostile pacific look, more neutral in terms of its effects downstream on North America. It will force the ridging to creep into western N Amer. more which prevents a god awful -PNA digging for gold down the west coast, and also directs cold shots a little further east. Lastly, not only is this not a hostile look IMO, but its even a pretty good one if you have cold established across N America ahead of this pattern. In recent years when we did get a mediocre pattern it was often coming off a torch which just doesn't work...but going from a great pattern that establishes cold a mediocre longwave pattern is much more likely to produce snow.

EPS 50% snowfall, which btw is a much better indicator than the mean which can be skewed by outliers. It was an improvement over the previous run.

depends

P5 please

Not gonna happen we have to try to make it work. It can. We got a decent snow last year with a GLL. We got MECS storms in 1966 and 1987 with a similar setup so a bigger event isn’t even impossible. But I know it makes it a lot harder.

No it’s gonna be an issue

If the NS SW isn’t going to dig in behind we would have been better if it just wasn’t there at all.