psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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I had to open my Big fat mouth
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Euro AI
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Getting through 0z with no NW trend was a really big deal. Our chances of a W went up significantly
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Let it go
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My parents live in Sea Isle
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I love the kuchie snow maps… Get your heads out of the gutter
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Usually the gefs has that issue. Right now it actually does have two camps but different from the eps. Gefs has a big hit camp like the op and a camp like the ggem way NW. eps wants none of that and is split between runs like the op and runs that have almost no wave at all like previous NAMs. I’ll borrow a line from Rocky IV when he said I see 3 of em out there and they told him hit the one in the middle. If you average all the extremes were in a good spot.
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2020 and 2023 would like to call and remind you want a disaster actually looks like
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It’s a win. Because I’m 90% confident the euro is undergoing qpf, I’m more concerned about where the snowfall axis ends up and the euro has that right over us. We are the jack zone. It’s just low on qpf. So it’s good on the thing I’m most concerned about.
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I’m sure Ji is satisfied with that
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It can’t be that different bc the h54 h5 and slp plots came out early and I was toggling w the last run and it’s almost identical. Impressively similar. Kinda like the gfs which was really close to its previous run. Precip can be really noisy and fluky though so I’m sure there’s some minor changes in that regard.
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You trying to speak this into existence
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You’re a tick annoying jk
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It does have some rgem like members but it did improve marginally. Shifted the snowfall about 10-20 miles SE. it was a little better.
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It increased the snowfall in the NW periphery and tightened up the gradient some but it didn’t really shift NE. If you identify the center of the max snowfall and draw a line the axis is almost exactly the same. It’s a noise level change imo.
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Here tale your pick
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Track is almost identical. Precip maybe 10 miles SE. but it def did not continue the NW trend which is what we’re all rooting stops.
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At 48 hours the gfs has the low in the same location and the same mslp (1002) along the NC VA border. And I mean exact to the mile same location. Crazy consistency run to run.
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Preach
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It’s always been this way except for rare examples when we have a stable blocking pattern to lock in major features and an extremely amplified storm so models can easily pick up on it. The other 90% of the time we do this and act like it’s unusual. Why we forget that this is how it is and 48 hours out is still long enough for major changes is beyond me.
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I keep expecting (maybe just hoping) they meet in the middle but for the last 24 hours the rgem has stayed put and everything else has slowly tended toward it. Of course I am not saying that continues but I’ll feel a lot better when I see the rgem shift 20 miles or more southeast.
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Hope it doesn’t pull a hammy
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I think the RGEM is going to cave, but I think the end result is somewhere between its most amplified solution and the consensus of everything else.
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Significantly wetter to our SW initially...but have to see if its just quicker to get going or actually wetter.
