psuhoffman

get it together

I was skiing a day at Steamboat when it was about -20 once. It was cold lol. I spent a little more time drinking than skiing that day.

@Bob Chill Regarding 2014-2015, using the euro here but the idea looks really close on all 3 ensembles right now. Day 15 This continues to look even more like those years everyday. 2014:2015 Composite Right now if we want to get overly specific I like the longwave configuration a little more than 2015 and maybe SLIGHTLY A SMIDGE less than 2014, not a bad spot to fall lol. The key to this being different from the -PDO hell we've been in recently is that trough in the central pacific which has been consistent across guidance and in reality. Yes the north pacific has a ridge into the WPO which isn't what we want if we are looking at every pattern driver in a vacuum, but it doesn't work that way. There are a ton of drivers and they are not all going to be perfect at the same time. That trough there in central pacific underneath the ridge prevents a downstream trough from digging into the SW US. It allows the cold to be directed into the east instead of digging into the west. It's a radically different reaction to a ridge in the WPO. This was the issue with recent years... There was a full latitude ridge at that longitude which caused a full longitude trough into the western US which in turn pumped the SER. Even once the current pattern retrogrades into a classic TNH look this is radically different from when we had a central pacific ridge in recent years. Not all TNH patterns are the same and that piece in the central pacific is a big key to our chances.

Suppression is about the flow in the longwave pattern not the temperatures. Yes there is correlation between the two since the type of longwave pattern that is suppressive is also conducive to cold in general, but there its not a 1:1 relationship and you can get an extremely suppressive flow without arctic air.

I'm gonna have to start a gofundme page for my heating bill

We're on the same page...hopefully its a good page.

Keep it up, we're gonna end up with one big super cluster F thread eventually.

To clarify, being in a generally good pattern but close to the boundary such that rain v snow is a debate is NOT the same as being in a crap pattern where its 99% likely to be rain in any precip event. Storms ride the thermal boundary so we are always flirting with rain v snow in any legit threat from day 10.

We have to flirt with "maybe too warm" to have a good chance at a storm at all. These things don't have 1000 mile wide snow swaths...if the pattern is so suppressive that there is absolutely no chance of rain here it means we probably have no chance at snow either lol. Once we get closer you can hone in on those details, but from day 10-15 to have a good chance of precip we probably have to be close enough to the boundary that rain is always a risk. Just have to roll the dice.

Blame the apps. That moisture streaming SW to NE isn't going to survive the 4500 ft mountains to our southwest without any dynamic mechanism. The TN valley and then into WV can do fine with a simple gulf moisture stream because they don't have that issue. We would need some mid level forcing from a NS SW or a better closer developed STJ wave to reintroduce moisture transport after the mountains shred whats coming from the southwest and in this case we have neither, unfortunately. Our best hope to get a little surprise might be some energy from the NS activating some minor banding along the trough axis as it crosses but right now guidance takes that feature to our NW and we are left in between that and the STJ wave.

Yea the period around Jan 20 looks very promising to me. Don't let my minor disappointment over getting fringed and now the next 10 days looking kinda boring dissuade anyone. We had to wait a LONG time to score big a few times (and some places in this sub already scored). 1996 we waited around for weeks of a great blocking pattern before the Jan blizzard. 2011 we suffered for a whole month before that storm finally hit. We remember the snowstorms from good patterns and tend to forget the weeks of cold dry boring that is just as common in the types of patters we need to get snow.

The guidance has been incredibly good with this. The comments about "how are they so far off" is skewed by the fact we pay attention to the outlier runs that show some crazy snowstorm more than the fact 90% of all the guidance has been indicating this was the most likely outcome since 150 hours out. Those few runs of the worst global model (the gfs has really been a total train wreck lately, mostly because the other global systems have had major upgrades in recent years and it's fallen way behind) really skewed perception but the majority depiction across guidance all along was this outcome with a chance of a very minor event from some moisture streaming north along a positive tilted trough but the STJ wave getting sheared out south of us.

Agree. NS looks to be a shred factory for a while until then. 50/50 set up too far Sw is a big part of the issue. Too much of a good thing.

The trough is trending more positive every run. It’s going the wrong way.

I’m kinda thinking our best shot at a decent snow might be the NS out of the way more and allow the moisture to ride the trough more. It’s lower upside but getting any kind of phase is becoming unlikely.

Depends there are other paths. If the NS wave hangs back more it being out of the way could allow a better solution. But those playing nice was the best option.

Something could pop up. There are several waves and a clipper in the flow. But they all get shredded across all guidance right now.

I only got 4”. The northern 3rd of our area didn’t do so good. I average 40, LONG way to go to even get close to climo. But it’s been a better season than I expected so far I’ll admit that. Further south they are half way to climo from that one storm yes, but cold regimes are so rare down here anymore we kind of can’t afford to waste them only getting one decent event.

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern.

The ICON was closer to a bigger event...but the issue is if the STJ wave starts to amplify more and gets closer...but doesn't actually hit we could end up with nothing because as the coastal starts to get going it will cut off the precip streaming north along the inverted trough with the northern stream low to the north. So it becomes an all or nothing situation. A weaker STJ wave opens the door to some kind of in between event with moisture training along the trough.

it's really close, agree this run was going to be a close miss...but amplify that NS SW and get that trough slightly less positive and it could have been a good outcome. It was one more trend like what it just did away from a hit.

I have no doubt this is the key to things going better so far... if that was still down around -3 I have no doubt we would have that awful ridge north of Hawaii causing every wave to dig into the southwest and pump a SER anytime everything isnt perfect everywhere else in the pattern.

As opposed to this look which is what was plaguing us the last 8 years...

To add visuals. The trough under the WPO is significant and changes the equation. If there was a ridge there like in recent years feeding a full latitude ridge into the WPO that feeds into a full latitude trough into western N America which of course leads to our out of control SER torches. This is a different look and is likely related to the relaxation of the PDO which was why that opened the door to significantly better outcomes this winter.

see my post right after yours lol