psuhoffman

I do find it amusing but I know some don’t find him funny. Just wish I could predict snow as well as I can predict Ji.

He knows though. It’s just his coping mechanism.

You really gonna start play by play each run for day 10-15 stuff? I know it’s been a long time and it’s frustrating but that doesn’t change the fact anything past 150 hours is likely to change significantly every single run, like hundreds of miles or maybe not even be there anymore. And even inside 150 we can’t look at details until the final 72 hours. You’re looking at unicorn fantasy land stuff.

Maybe because it was 13 days away. A cow farts in a different direction tonight and things shift 500 miles at that range. Exponential error growth over time and chaos. But you know that you’re just trying to rile up Howard for entertainment.

Everyone does realize what we say here has no effect on the actual weather. It’s just analysis. Who cares what anyone says. It’s what actually happens that matters.

Don’t apologize. Some people here need to toughen up a lot. Seriously. I wonder how some get through life if a few discouraging words about a possible day 10 snowstorm gets them this upset. My god how do they cope when seriously bad things happen?

But what’s changed? The transition of the long wave pattern is progressing exactly as guidance suggested. However, many failed, I think, to account for the fact it will take some time to recover from the train wreck the thermal profile will be at the start. Thinking we would immediately shift into deep cold the moment the long wave pattern shifted isn’t realistic. It likely takes a wave or two to pull cold air down. You know this. You often talk about this very progression. We’re just impatient because it’s been a LONG time. BTW, are you suggesting you think the models are programmed to intentionally show false output in order to cover more outcomes? If so I suggest you do some research into how NWP works. They change at long leads each run because new data changed the most likely outcome. But each run is the output the model thinks is the most likely. It’s a singular simulation. Ensembles are just a lot of singular simulations with slightly adjusted input. They don’t have motives.

I agree with the way we could fail but seeing 1977 show up isn’t necessarily doom yet because 1977 shows up every time we’re in a good snowstorm pattern. I remember in the weeks leading up to some of our HECS storms in 2010 and 2016, 1977 was in the analogs. Unfortunately the differences between us getting a big snowstorm and just a cold dry week are pretty subtle and can’t be parsed at range. But in general we don’t want the PV to drop too far, unless it’s going to phase into a monster superstorm like yesterday’s 18z gfs almost did.

The were due index is through the roof.

I meant when it was 4”. Sorry

Yes with the caveat there was a time constraint. But not sure if it was 4” in 12 or 24 hours. But in general everyone considered 4” warning criteria back then.

Merry Christmas

Look at these puny blocking signals We don’t necessarily need some 2010 -3stdv omega block to get a snowstorm. Actually that’s not the most common way, simply because they are so rare. And sometimes they lead to suppression. what we do need is enough of a epo/pna/ao/nao combo (it’s all a degree trade off between them) to get a deep eastern trough that extends into the Atlantic centered south of our latitude. The pattern on all the guidance right now looks totally fine to me for delivering the chance at a snowstorm. Now we just wait to see if it’s right and then if we get lucky with wave spacing. That’s it imo.

No thanks. I don’t want to play Green Bay in the first round lol.

There are short term decade cyclical patterns yes. But if you adjust for those it’s been getting warmer since the 1800s. For example, if we get a cycle where a -nao and +PDO coincide in the near future we will be colder than we have during this recent +nao -PDO one. But if that next -nao +pdo is warmer than the last similar “cold” cycle, we didn’t actually get colder we got warmer. You have to see the larger trends and not be confused by short term fluctuations.

Beautiful. Still a Nino look there. Although not sure given the way some recent enso events have gone that Nino/nina means the same thing anymore.

No people are way too sensitive to snow and over react to any analysis that isn’t positive. I made it clear it wasn’t a prediction. I was saying “if” that specific thing happens again it’s not the PDO or pacific long wave pattern the reason that specific thing happens is simply warming. That’s it. It won’t happen every time. Some setups will still work. We had an hecs miss us to the south just 5 years ago! But less are working out and we all know why. I was just pointing out a specific example. Some then take that to be some doom and gloom larger message.

People who don’t tip are bad people. If you want to protest the way the system is then don’t go out to eat. That hurts the system. But if you go to a restaurant and pay the establishment but then stiff the person serving you knowing they are not paid a living wage and they are relying on your tip, you aren’t protesting a system, you’re just hurting someone, probably less fortunate than you.

Maybe, and on a long enough timescale definitely. But for over 100 years it’s been going one direction.

When I pull the plug on winter I make it 100% clear. But often I’m making a specific singular point and people take it on way too broad a way.

Everything is a matter of degrees. But in essence yes. Our best snow pattern relies on a split flow with blocking over the top and a broad trough that directs waves at us from the TN valley. There is going to be some attempt at a SER in that long wave configuration. But the way it’s worked to our advantage in the past was if there was a cold antecedent airmass and blocking the SER was suppressed and the waves coming at us from the SW get shunted east. So we get this fetch of moisture coming at us over the cold but the storm gets forced to transfer under us. But what happens if you add more heat to all that. Waves coming in off the pacific have more energy and amplify more out west which pumps the SER more. The gulf and atl are warner which pumps the SER more. At some point there is a tipping point where the SER wins and that equation doesn’t work anymore.

Depends how we fail. If we get a trough in the east but we just get unlucky with wave spacing and timing that’s ok. Sucks but doesn’t say much about future chances. That happens. But if we have a pacific Nino look with a central pac trough and an epo to nao ridge bridge w split flow and the stj waves all amplify too much out west and the SER can’t be squashed then I don’t even know what to root for if we want a big snowstorm. Yea sure we could root for a typical Nina look and hope to luck into waves like we’ve been trudging through the last 8 years but what’s our path to a legit big snowstorm cause that ain’t it. Our big snow look relies on a split flow with blocking over the top. Waves come off the pac and slide east under the blocked flow. But if too much heat gets added to that setup and there becomes a feedback loop where the pacific waves come in and amplify too much out west which feeds into the SER which is also getting fed by a warmer Gulf…well other than the pacific and gulf cooling what’s the solution. And I’ve seen no one saying they expect the SST trends to reverse anytime soon.

Don’t over react to my post. I was making a single point about a phenomenon that’s been impacting our snowfall a lot recently. I did not say we’re doomed or this pattern can’t work.

I’m not saying this happens. But we’ve seen what the 12z gefs is showing several times. A SER linking with the NAO. But this is different because we have a favorable pacific long wave configuration with a trough centered from Hawaii to just west of AK with a ridge bridge from AK to the NAO. If that doesn’t work I don’t even know what we want for a big snowstorm anymore. If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else. This isn’t complicated. The more heat you add the the equation the harder it is to suppress a SER from over the top. Additionally the warmer storms are coming off the pacific the more they are going to amplify faster out west and pump that SER downstream. That’s a pure “too much heat added to the equation” issue that won’t be fixed by any long wave pattern. That said given enough time I’d still take my chances that something comes off the pacific and doesn’t over amplify and cuts under the NS flow. I’m not tossing any towel. This is just pointing something out.

2009 was one of my top analogs and ended badly for us despite a pretty good pattern on the Atlantic side for a chunk of the winter. but the biggest difference and why I started to think maybe this year has more potential than I was giving it, the pacific. The guidance is showing almost the opposite pattern there and way closer to a typical Nino than Nina look. If that is legit the bar is a lot higher. The Nina pac with central pac ridge and NW Canada trough is a severe limiting factor on our chances even with blocking. It doesn’t matter that we are in cold enso of the pacific doesn’t actually have a Nina long wave pattern. Similarly to how recent ninos don’t help when the pattern never couples with a canonical Nino configuration.