psuhoffman

That was the GGEM that had the crazy 2 ft solutions, and its still the most amplified of the operationals at 12z but its more like 4-8" for the cities with more SE. However, we are not supposed to use operational runs at this range. The ensembles are meant for this, and the most common solution across the ensembles has been a miss to the southeast with that wave. Doesn't mean it cant hit, its not so far off that there is no chance, but seeing one run of one model show some 2ft storm does not mean "THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING 2ft" when 90% of the guidance when taken holistically as a whole show nothing.

The TPV slides by pretty quick to our north and as of now it looks like the pattern relaxes some after without another immediate shot of arctic air. But its a long ways out. But more importatntly that is not my main concern. I am hunting snow, could care less about getting frigid below 0 temps.

It’s going to be cold no matter what. Whether we get snow depends on how the TPV behaves during its elongation and split and the amplitude of the waves out west.

Just looking at the way the whole pattern evolves looping the h5 across guidance I think the second wave next week (the one the gfs is keying on) has the best chance to ride the coast north, but the first wave have the bigger upside in terms of snowfall for 95 (colder antecedent airmass). But fun times. The Sunday teaser is totally dependent on where the boundary sets up exactly and the track of that vort. It’s a narrow win zone so that won’t be nailed down either until the final 48-72 hours.

But it will be fun watching the nervous breakdowns some are going to have if they live and die with each model run over the next few days!

They are all doing this...its too many moving parts at a long lead time for them to handle. We are several days away from getting a better idea on the options next week...there are 2 threats BTW.

Good morning Quick summary of what I see The first threat Sunday is actually simple, but the cause for divergence across guidance is that its delicate. There is a vigorous SW over western AK right now. It's going to split over western Canada with a piece going east and merging into the TPV and another part diving into the trough, rounding the base and becoming our snow threat Sunday. This energy activates the boundary. It's pretty simple, how much energy and what track does this wave take. But its delicate, its a relatively weak minor player in the overall flow so models will struggle with it, but this delicate weak piece of energy holds our fate wrt snowfall sunday. The next bigger threat involves major players on the hemispheric longwave scale, but it involves lots of them in a delicate intricate balancing act so its complicated. The main TPV (1 and 2) is going to elongate and eventually split. How much energy resides with 1 and 2 and where 1 ends up and how quickly it clears out of the way to our north is a major factor. How much energy trails with 2 and how it interacts with 3 is a major factor. What 4 does and how it influences the tail of the trough is a factor. And finally what the next major wave 5 does and whether if flattens or amplifies the downstream trough is a factor. There is no way guidance is going to lock all this in at this range, especially absent blocking to set firm guides in the flow for all these features. But in general we want more energy to reside further west with 2 and 3 and less with 1 and that has been the trend across all guidance over the last 24 hours. But don't expect this to be resolved quickly. Even the crazy GFS idea of holding back so much energy that it becomes the next threat 48 hours later is not off the table and shows up on some individual members of the EPS. Lastly, what comes AFTER AFTER.... EPS continues to trend towards a much more friendly look for February. It's already backing off on the crazy SER look it was suggesting. It continues to trend towards lower heights near Hawaii which is a key, that look of the pac jet undercutting the WPO EPO ridge typically suggests troughs won't get stuck in the southwest and press east more. It also pushes the WPO EPO ridge poleward and often leads to AO ridging over the top, which we are seeing more and more now on long range guidance. This also helps to deepen troughs into the CONUS. This look puts a lot of pressure for the cold to press southeast. Last nights op euro is a good example of what that pattern would actually look like because it matches the h5 of the EPS very closely. The SER is there at H5 but look at what it actually looks like where it matters We are very much in the game for boundary waves in that look. It's February and we don't need as much of a perfect pattern to get snow the first half of February as just about every other time of the year. If that is the worst look this winter has to offer (early to mid Feb was what all the analogs suggest is likely our most hostile period in terms of the longwave pattern) we are in pretty good shape.

They do but they also still show signs of the pac jet undercutting in the central pacific and now signs of the AO going negative again. It wouldn’t take much adjustment to shift cold back into the east. Even the look they show wouldn’t be hopeless as trailing waves would have potential with cold close by.

I think that’s what he is saying. There is no way that cold doesn’t make it here given where it’s directed. Maybe not to the level guidance shows. But I think he is hinting the models might be pressing the boundary too far SE which I agree with.

It was about to lay down the hammer. It was significantly more amplified than 12z. EPS trended that way also. I’ll take that trade off to lose 1” Sunday lol.

Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind?

That is a HUGE jump from 0z

No, I think the Northern Neck is going to get so much sleet... I would hate to live there

You're point and caution are correct, but I think this setup has more of a chance then that ever did. That required a more complicated phase to pull off and it was never really on anything except the GFS, wasn't even all that close on any other guidance. The "foundation" for this storm is there across guidance. But it's still not the most likely outcome at this range...but I think its more likely then that last one was.

I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it

The euro shows sleet in the northern neck

ZWYTS, Deck Pic

Did you hear some brothers down in NC invented a flying machine???

BTW, the euro doesn't fully phase, it splits the energy and still pulls that off, that was not even the max solutions...it left a little meat on the bone believe it or not. BUT looking further out...look what the op euro just did in the long range also...its starting to show up on more and more guidance. There is a LOT of uncertainty where we are heading after next week.

And the euro had those exact adjustments... that NS SW is digging down into the Dakotas and it has a bit more SER and BOOM

It has a better track record than JB then

Matt expected this last night...he was just one run too soon on his call.

Ji needs to complain more often, I see a pattern

Glacier

I don't like to bet against Bob.