psuhoffman

In the end rain is a bigger risk than suppressed probably.

Yall are funny. The gfs is barely a miss to the SE. the ggem is barely a miss to the NW. meanwhile the solution shifts around every run. And we’re worrying about what? Obviously the final solution isn’t going to be known for a while.

I’m surprised he hasn’t found a way to say it’s a combo of both lol

Fine I’ll stop poking the bear.

It’s a secret message to Howard

Sold stick hold buy yes please Thank you

I spire with my little eye

I was only tryin to have a little border skirmish for fun and it escalated full nuclear fast But us obsessive stalker zeolites be like that

You must be a lot of fun at parties

Sorry not sorry, in fairness Philly is a tough spot for any QB, see Jordan Love

You've been right, no one is trying to take that way from you lol

Great catch, I was just thinking about that and looking at it, there are similarities in the pattern also.

That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime. If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo. I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either. There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet. This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it. Why and how did I become the optimist here?

Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up. So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs. It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west. I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern

I think this is true for the Jan 21-24 period. Not so much after, if the pattern looks anything like progs of course.

Not sure who I want...Vikings have the better team but Rams have the better QB by far.

Tomorrow for me lol

It's all on the table... where the TPV sets up, where the block over the top of it is (new wrinkle) and how the energy in the flow underneath interacts and ejects. And those are way too many moving linked parts for the guidance to get this nailed down at any kind of long leads. This is more of an inside 72 hours kind of setup, which I know is frustrating but it is what it is.

GGEM has that centered back near Hudson bay with a block over the top, more of an AO block than NAO but with a TPV over Hudson that's actually a really good configuration. And it leads to snow. Let's just hope the GFS is wrong with parking the TPV right on top of us, but it's probably good that its only the worst model doing that right now.

was it overrunning? lol just kidding

Inject the GGEM right into my veins please

Historic snowstorm for the deep south. We will see...

There have been very few permutations among all the ensembles and op runs that have a hit from both the 20th and 22nd threats...They are linked. If more energy comes out with the wave on the 20th the 22nd is likely weaker and south. If more energy holds back at the tail of the trough, the 22nd becomes a more amplified wave and a threat but the 20th is likely nothing. It's likely one or the other. There is a narrow thread the needle balance of energy that could lead to two hits but its not the most likely outcome.

Yesterday this tendency (and duality of options) showed up in the EPS snow plots. There were smaller hits around Jan 20 and larger ones around the 21-22 for the members that had a slower more amplified solution with that wave.