psuhoffman

Everyone says “this never happens with rainstorms” but it does. They just don’t notice bc they don’t care.

I like that all guidance is leaving the decaying boundary across our area after the initial WAA thump. Right now qpf is paltry but often that ends up being where the best accumulation is.

This x100! It’s 150 hours. A shift like that is noise. There is no way to know exactly where the sharp northern edge will be due to confluence at this range. The euro still has a healthy storm. That’s what matters.

I’d rather need less of that than more at this point. The more typical error is to over do an anomaly like they. Needing less of a crazy anomaly is a better place to be.

Yup, things have become so fast paced maybe we expect more but the advancement the last 20 years is definitely there. When I used to sit in on forecast discussions as guidance came in at the PSU weather station in the late 90s and early 2000s we didn’t even look at anything past 100 hours. It wasn’t even a thought.

“Only 150”. lol. you’re right but it wasn’t long ago 150 was unicorn fantasy land and further than most operational models even went!

The late January one that started the crazy stretch was pretty cold.

I think it’s going south but it’s not the string out mess it was which is a step in the right direction.

Dunno how it ends but gfs is moving towards euro, icon, UK camp early on. Again, the gfs has been pretty awful this fall and winter season with almost every situation I’ve looked at and compared guidance. Doesn’t mean it can’t be right once in a while and we shouldn’t even look at it, but it’s been worse than the euro and even the ggem and uk across the board lately.

So are dozens of others that didn’t end up that extreme.

lol. I just said why are you wanting to change anything on a run that gave you 20”! But if storm one becomes a mecs so what. But everything affects everything else so rooting to change a lead wave when that solution lead to 20” 2 days later was odd and risky. That’s all. We have no control so it doesn’t matter.

Not bad for the week

I’ll take it as an appetizer to kick off the pattern.

Ji is right there is definitely potential for the Jan 6 wave to trend south. Slightly less separation between the wave and the 50/50 and it could be a better event. I think the top end potential is lower than the next wave hypothetically but I wouldn’t kick a 4-8” snow out of bed.

I’m somewhere over Montana.

Yes but people don’t want to hear that. But it’s typically how it goes with blocking.

This gfs run has too much blocking day 10-15 and crushes everything. That hasn’t been a typical problem at all recently so let’s wait and see. I’d rather see that than cutters at range.

Ggem suppressed for the opposite reason as gfs. It washes out wave 1 which leaves room wave 2 to amplify and it does but without wave 1 it drops the boundary too far south. Both are a typical error at that range from a hit so Im fine with both.

But wave 2 dying on the gfs has opened the window behind it. Incoming look day 9! The pattern is loaded. Remember what I said though about it often not being the wave we first identify at range.

The biggest issue on gfs is timing. Not enough separation between the two waves. The boundary is close by but the lead wave slowed down 12 hours and really squashes the second. It’s trying to amplify onto the suppressive flow behind wave 1. We need more separation for it to work

Anyone upset at this gfs run is lacking perspective. No single run is likely to be 100% accurate at that range or even close. It’s well within a typical expected error of a hit this run. That’s all that matters.

The further north solutions with wave 1 leaves the batoclinic boundary closer to us which puts us in the game for a bigger event wave 2 which is more of a stj wave coming from a better angle. More miller A. Higher upside. That doesn’t mean there is no path to two hits. A west primary track with better CAD and a 3-6” thump to dry a lot is very much a scenario that could lead to a nice first event and leave the door open to wave 2. But if the lead wave ends up tracking under us and leaves the boundary down through SC we’re probably cooked for the second wave and that becomes a NC SC snow threat. That’s just how I see the permutations here but what I want or say doesn’t matter and won’t affect the outcome so…

Now you listen