psuhoffman

That’s very 2014ish. Now of course the key is getting lucky with waves and also to have that last longer than a New York minute. It’s a pattern that can still take persistence so we need it to settle on for more than a week to really cash in probably. But take what we can get it at least suggests we get a legit window of opportunity after the likely late month moderation which is more than we can say for some winters lately, sadly.

With friends like that…

No it’s called dialogue. We have different points of view but the discussion doesn’t have to be hostile. I asked a legitimate good faith question. I’m not trying to trick you or trap you. But in honesty don’t see how a short range day 1-5 hurricane track and trying to predict long range day 10-15 or even longer patterns is a good comp. You could explain your point of view. That’s how a discussion works. You don’t have to take every comment I make as if it’s some attack.

Other than Ji who said winter’s over?

Respectfully how is that a fair comparison. NHC doesn’t even put out a long range hurricane track. The official cone only goes to day 5 and sometimes it’s pretty wide at day 5. We just don’t have the ability to be that accurate at those ranges.

Our fate isn’t determined until inside 48 hours but this isn’t a both ways thing. There are way more permutations that result in no snow than snow for us. And because we are hyper vigilant pouring over ensembles and every obscure model run if there is a “threat” we will see it usually pretty far out. We won’t know the outcome of course.

It’s a better progression for us. Our best chance is if this evolves into more of a boundary wave than an amplified cut off. The trough is digging too far east and not deep enough for that to work here. We could get a smaller snow from a boundary wave though.

I’m just stating probabilities based on past results in comparable situations. There can be flukes within the normal variance. We have to hope for such a fluke. Because the probabilities are not in our favor this year. That’s all.

The discussion seems pretty grounded to me. Yes the models are a part but I’ve seen references to tropical forcing, climo, analogs and the long wave teleconnections. What part of the analysis do you disagree with? How should the long range discussion be different?

In a weak cold enso, yes. Jan 15 on is a torch in most weak cold enso years.

You’re not who this was directed at. There is another group who simply doesn’t like to hear about it a lot because it’s depressing. That group I totally get. I understand coping. I’m just not that way. I’m more a face things directly and fully person. Immersing in it is my cope. But everyone copes differently. This was directed at the group, and yes they are real, who have made it clear they think our snowfall woes are just a fluke or cyclical. I’m not even saying here they are wrong. They know my stance. Yes I think they are wrong. But all I’m asking of that cohort is, how much more evidence would it take for them to change their mind. I’m legitimately curious.

We might get a shot sometime in January but we have a tight window because Nina climo says that trough will retrograde as the month goes on and by late January the SER will take over and it’s pretty much game over. It’s really bad luck that we got a Nino lag in December when Nina climo would be better and now are transitioning to a Nina pattern right as that forcing becomes hostile! We got the worst of both worlds

We know there is a faction that vehemently disagrees that there is anything more than bad luck or cyclical variance going on with snowfall. So let me amicably pose a question. What if we do get a 3rd snowless winter in the last 6 years. Something that would be unprecedented on a crazy level. Would that change your minds at all? If not what would it take? What if 4 of the next 5 winters are below avg snow? 9 of the next 10? 10 more in a row? At what point might you change your mind?

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well. Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble.

Not if you know what to ignore

The crazy thing is…as much as everyone thinks I’m a huge Deb, I’ve over predicted snow 5 of the last 6 years. Even when I went way below normal and predicted a total ratter like in 2023 I still said we would get like 3-5” and we got absolutely nothing! In 2020 when I made that infamous “time of death” post on winter I said we would probably luck into a minor snowfall at some point but for all intents and purposes winter was cooked, but that was too optimistic we didn’t see another flake all winter! As pessimistic as I’ve been I’ve not been pessimistic enough. I predict too much snow. Keep that in mind. It’s sobering!

You’ve come a long way!

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!

There was a storm that winter with a distribution similar to Boxing Day. It didn’t miss south as much as east. There were some minor events that missed south. But that’s also Nina climo. The worst negative snow anomaly is right over the DC Balt area in cold enso. You’re more likely to get more snow wrt average in every direction.

I predicted we will get snow this winter. Just not a lot and unlikely a big storm. And I see posts that show us getting 1-3” saying “that would be frustrating” because it has northeast of us getting 20”. That was what the impetus of my post was. For those that would be totally happy to get 1-2” of snow from a storm that crushes somewhere north or east of us with big snow they are being totally realistic and that’s healthy. Expecting is go get big snow then being upset when it hits the places climo favored in cold enso is not. That’s all. Everyone is different.

Lastly, 1 of the 4 storms that ended up a big cold enso snowstorm was maybe the biggest surprise snow ever but 3/4 were storms many on here identified as legit threats well in advance. One was that WAG I got right from 10 days out in 2011. But what all 4 had in common was a trough diving well to our southwest with an amplified wave digging into the TN valley to our southwest. 3/4 also featured a rarity for a Nino which was a mature STJ moisture feed to our southwest. If we see those things it’s ok to think this could be one of the exceptions. And the day 8-9 thing is way too far out to put to bed yet, but runs that show some NS dominant event with a SW that barely digs to our latitude and has to stall and bomb to get us don’t excite me. We all know how those actually play out.

Just so everyone knows I'm not just being a deb... there have been 35 NESIS events during a -ENSO including cold neutrals since 2000. And full discloser I did include 2014 in this, even though you all know how much of an outlier I think that season was...if I excluded it these numbers would be a LOT worse! Of the 35 NESIS events the average snowfall at BWI was 2.8" 71% were 3" or less 29% were 4" 17% were 6" 9% were 10" The max was 15" By far the highest probability of how an NESIS level storm will affect our area during a cold enso is with less than 4" of snow and that its VERY likely the heavy snow will miss us to the north or east. That is just the probabilities based on the records. I am NOT saying it cannot snow or that we can't get a good snowstorm, just that the odds are against it and so I am not getting my hopes up by long range HECS type setups because history says those storms are very likely to miss us. Just for comparison there have been 25 NESIS events in warm enso years since 2000 The avg at BWI is 7.4" only 40% were less than 4" 60% were 4" plus 44% were 6" plus 20% were 10" plus The max was 29" My advice is in a cold enso when we are tracking a major snowstorm at range...expect it to miss us to the north or east and to get a very minor event because that is what the probabilities say are by far the greatest odds...then be happy if it turns out to be the very rare fluke where we get a major event. Even in a warm enso our odds from range at a major threat being a BIG snow are below 50% but they are over double the chances in a cold enso.

Looks a lot like a typical cold enso HECS

The thermal distribution isn’t the issue. That’s general profile is what to expect with a strong -EPO. The issue is the degree of the anomaly. It’s ok if western and central Canada are +3 or +5 but when it’s +10 or more we’ve seen recently that even when we get a favorable long wave configuration the air masses here just aren’t cold enough because our source regions are torched. Southeast Canada isn’t super warm yet but roll that day 15 forward 5 days and it would be. it’s way too far out to worry about the specifics I was just trying to point out that we’ve blamed the hostile pac of the last 8 years for our source regions being torched several times. But there we have the opposite pacific long wave pattern and it’s a similar result.

I’m mildly interested in the window around the 20-22. There is a brief window we might have enough cold and a chance one one the NS waves could get forced south in the squeeze between amplifying troughs. The 12z euro and 0z gfs are ways that setup can realistically work. But it’s not something guidance will pin down at range.