psuhoffman

It’s the coldest 35 degrees ever

In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out. Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol

Yea, unfortunately we’ve seen numerous times recently that when Canada torches we just can’t overcome it even when we do get lucky with a perfect track wave. Best case scenario is when the pac jet starts to retract we get enough cross polar flow to replenish our cold source quickly. Worst case would be we don’t and we waste 1-2 weeks of a better long wave pattern with unworkable temps then by the time it’s getting cold enough the pattern is breaking down. We’ve seen that story a few times lately also. The winter might break based on that variable.

It's rushing it, I don't get back until the 4th

Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here.

Coating. Still snowing. 32

Chill I'm at 4". That crazy disparity between here and your area happened one time in the 20 years I've been up here. Yes I will almost always get more snow but it's almost never 400% more like that. That was a very rare one time type thing. Now, if we start to see that kind of thing happening regularly during "good patterns" because the boundary temps just arent cold enough to support snow in lower elevations that would be a huge problem. But so far to that extreme it's only happened once really ever.

This

I made some vague comments that are being taken in various directions so I feel like maybe I should clarify. First of all my analysis was not based purely on models, my post of the GEFS the other day was purely to illustrate a very specific point I was making that despite an opposite pacific to what we kinda expected, we might end up with a similar result in terms of the north american temp profile. But I did also say that look is a problem because it can take a week or two to recover from that if we do torch our source regions like that. I am in 100% agreement with others that we likely still get a window in January. But my pessimism is that our legit window for snowfall might be getting really narrow here. Based on all the analogs I identified I fully expect the pattern to get rough for snowfall sometime in the second half of January and probably persist through February. Unfortunately that is in incredibly strong consistent signal across weak nina and most cold neutral enso years. So losing a week or two during the window climo says we had the best opportunity to snow is a big hit to our chances to overperform this season. There are goalposts to a winters potential and I used a formula to predict snowfall based on what I thought were the middle of those goalposts. But of course the possibility to get the higher end of that range of possible outcomes is there and I am rooting for that. Not seeing any legit high probability snowfall threats in the next 10 days and a possible moderation that would take us into January after makes me feel like our chances at overperforming expectations this winter is probably slipping away. I am not saying we will get no snow, sorry if any of my posts came off that way. We also could luck into something during the rough period. We got a 2-4" snowfall in February 2018 during the middle of a horrible torch pattern when we got lucky with a trailing wave behind a pressing cold airmass. But if we have no snow heading into January, and its likely we flip to a bad pattern by January 15-20th...our window to get much snow this winter is pretty small. That's all I'm saying. But this was expected...we knew this was not likely to be a good winter. Things are about what I expected but maybe I was rooting to be pleasantly surprised.

How do the ensemble snow probabilities look?

That’s very 2014ish. Now of course the key is getting lucky with waves and also to have that last longer than a New York minute. It’s a pattern that can still take persistence so we need it to settle on for more than a week to really cash in probably. But take what we can get it at least suggests we get a legit window of opportunity after the likely late month moderation which is more than we can say for some winters lately, sadly.

With friends like that…

No it’s called dialogue. We have different points of view but the discussion doesn’t have to be hostile. I asked a legitimate good faith question. I’m not trying to trick you or trap you. But in honesty don’t see how a short range day 1-5 hurricane track and trying to predict long range day 10-15 or even longer patterns is a good comp. You could explain your point of view. That’s how a discussion works. You don’t have to take every comment I make as if it’s some attack.

Other than Ji who said winter’s over?

Respectfully how is that a fair comparison. NHC doesn’t even put out a long range hurricane track. The official cone only goes to day 5 and sometimes it’s pretty wide at day 5. We just don’t have the ability to be that accurate at those ranges.

Our fate isn’t determined until inside 48 hours but this isn’t a both ways thing. There are way more permutations that result in no snow than snow for us. And because we are hyper vigilant pouring over ensembles and every obscure model run if there is a “threat” we will see it usually pretty far out. We won’t know the outcome of course.

It’s a better progression for us. Our best chance is if this evolves into more of a boundary wave than an amplified cut off. The trough is digging too far east and not deep enough for that to work here. We could get a smaller snow from a boundary wave though.

I’m just stating probabilities based on past results in comparable situations. There can be flukes within the normal variance. We have to hope for such a fluke. Because the probabilities are not in our favor this year. That’s all.

The discussion seems pretty grounded to me. Yes the models are a part but I’ve seen references to tropical forcing, climo, analogs and the long wave teleconnections. What part of the analysis do you disagree with? How should the long range discussion be different?

In a weak cold enso, yes. Jan 15 on is a torch in most weak cold enso years.

You’re not who this was directed at. There is another group who simply doesn’t like to hear about it a lot because it’s depressing. That group I totally get. I understand coping. I’m just not that way. I’m more a face things directly and fully person. Immersing in it is my cope. But everyone copes differently. This was directed at the group, and yes they are real, who have made it clear they think our snowfall woes are just a fluke or cyclical. I’m not even saying here they are wrong. They know my stance. Yes I think they are wrong. But all I’m asking of that cohort is, how much more evidence would it take for them to change their mind. I’m legitimately curious.

We might get a shot sometime in January but we have a tight window because Nina climo says that trough will retrograde as the month goes on and by late January the SER will take over and it’s pretty much game over. It’s really bad luck that we got a Nino lag in December when Nina climo would be better and now are transitioning to a Nina pattern right as that forcing becomes hostile! We got the worst of both worlds

We know there is a faction that vehemently disagrees that there is anything more than bad luck or cyclical variance going on with snowfall. So let me amicably pose a question. What if we do get a 3rd snowless winter in the last 6 years. Something that would be unprecedented on a crazy level. Would that change your minds at all? If not what would it take? What if 4 of the next 5 winters are below avg snow? 9 of the next 10? 10 more in a row? At what point might you change your mind?

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well. Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble.

Not if you know what to ignore