psuhoffman

A thought on the lead time here...this is not a simple HECS threat we get sometimes in a split flow nino pattern where the NS is outta the Fng way and we can watch some juiced up STJ wave slowly come at us from a week away and nothing in the way to much it up. This is complicated with multiple wave interactions and is way more likely to not show up until a shorter lead time. Dec 2009 involved more NS interaction, but not nearly as much as complicated or noisy as this...and that was an example where there were hints and potential but we didnt start to get details or feel locked in until inside 100 hours.

RGEM missed the boat on the initial NS wave but its amplifying the STJ and second but weaker NS SW more...could be making a run at a different path to a good result, I guess we will see when the GGEM comes out soon but my concern would be that initial NS wave if it misses the chance to phase and ends up out in front could flatten the flow too much to allow the wave to climb until its too late. But we've not seen that path (more amplified STJ and phase with the next SW) on guidance to test it yet.

My daughter was talking about why the vampire in her cartoon is blue, and my 10 year old son said..."it doesn't matter Vampires aren't real" and when she questioned how he knows said "because people are so stupid if they were real we would all be dead by now"

yes

The threat is legit, just wish the Euro and GFS were on opposite sides right now lol ETA: its complicated though with multiple SWs having to play nice and phase, which does lower the odds it pulls it off, but also increases the chances the best model might miss it and you get a scenario like when the JMA schooled everyone in 2006.

Why not both?

We had a very close miss with the storm Jan 31-Feb2 2021. DC-Baltimore area got 3-6" but just north got 12" plus starting with my area. Another storm threat in that window got suppressed. Bad luck. We did get a nice hit at the end of a blocking period in March 2018 which would have been a 20" storm had it happened just a few weeks earlier.

ICON was half way between the NAM/Euro look at 84 hours and the GFS and we got a close miss on a major storm, and a minor snowfall.

Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

Maybe sooner, the divergence that leads to the different paths happens at only about 72 hours...so its possible the models latch onto a singular evolution soon, maybe even tonight.

Fair enough I was just comparing the NAM to the GFS like solutions...a more modest event is still possible from where the NAM left off.

It isn't worth speculating on that, we haven't even figured out which scenario we're looking at yet. There are several possible paths...I will say that if we don't get the full phase between the STJ and the two NS waves the next best possible solutions would be for the NS to amplify on its own (but it might be difficult to get it to track far enough south, or to get the STJ wave to track far enough NW without the NW interference (a sloppy partial phase might just shunt it south and stall its development until too late). But both of those have more limited upside than the full phased bomb GFS solutions of course.

To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside

I don’t think it would have got it done. The NS is not digging behind and getting out in front. That elongates the trough and won’t allow it to amplify and go negative which is what we need. The gfs so far is the only model really diving that NS Sw down behind the STJ wave. Others are close but once they miss that connection around hour 72 it’s over.

My current snow depth on the deck is 3.6” but I think we got 3.9 with some compaction between rounds. This time it was likely the same down where you are. Hope you feel better.

Oh I think that’s how it should be done to make an actual forecast. But if we’re posting a map either will have errors. 10-1 will be too high near the R/S line or in places stuck between bands and too low in jack zones. Kuchera the reverse.

Depends on the phase. This is a miller b hybrid not a pure miller A. That’s ok we get crushed on miller b hybrids that have a STJ component sometimes. Its pure NS miller Bs that always fail for us. But these phase bombing lows often have a very tight wound CCB as they get going and the snow ends up closer to the SLP track than you would see in a mature miller a gulf low crawling up the coast. Sometimes the rain snow line collapses in close to the MSLP in these. Unfortunately we have to flirt with disaster to get the win due to what I said above. It’s not a pure mature miller a that will have an expansive CCB precip field. The NS wave on top will prevent that until it phases and starts to bomb. It’s another delicate situation but sometimes these work out. Not everything can be Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 where some split flow STJ wave can be seen a week out workout much doubt. Wish it was that easy more often.

I think Kuchara gets a bad rap. Often when snowfall is low it’s due to a miss on meso banding and qpf was low. In this case the best lift missing the DGX also hurt ratios and kuchera was a bit high. But I’ve seen kuchera be more accurate than 10-1 maps more often than not. I’d never use Kuchera if I was in the UHI or near water. You have to know climo. But 10-1 are way too low up here most of the time.

I was just asking. I think it’s fair to be selective. 12”+ is fine, that’s actually only slightly more rare than 8” events since many of those go on to reach 12” also. We’re kinda a boom or bust snow climo here.

Can’t make this up. Just gotta take the L

Unfortunately we’re stuck between bands again. Snowing heavy in Westminster now but just light here. We have one more shot with the band to our west but this just went comically wrong for us in every way. Lol

What’s “folks” HECS? A 8-12” snow is a once every 4-5 years event lol

Took the kids sledding. You can see my house from down in town. I tell everyone I meet I look down on them. For some reason they don’t like me.

Would it annoy anyone else if their neighbor didn't mow their law the last month in the fall such that it would take 6" of snow or more to cover it? Asking for a friend.

It's a few small things all breaking the wrong way IMO. Ratios are a part of the calculation, there was reason to believe higher ratios would pan out, but the DGZ ended up out of alignment with the best lift even during heavier precip. Banding also did not work out for MD specifically. And I think across the board guidance was maybe 10% overdone on QPF. Add in those 3 minor errors and you end up with the low end of snowfall v high end. It wasn't some huge bust, just some small misses on details imo.