psuhoffman

Just about all the analogs that flipped warm in Feb then cold again, the flip back happened right near March 1 and the snowstorms associated with those years happened in March. Late Feb has kind of been a wasteland around here historically for a while. Who knows why. Random probably.

That's actually a HECS but it's a few days too far out still to get excited yet, but AIFS has been all over that time period and other guidance has popped out the random big hit around there too. It's the period I am most interested in, pattern is relaxing but with a lot of cold still left hanging around. That's often a recipe for us.

Wait until heavy precip arrives to panic. If in a couple Hours it’s pouring rain and still 36 degrees then it’s time to panic.

Drink plenty of fluids

Ninjad. That looks a lot more realistic. Closer to my snow map. I might have to expand my lawsuit to class action.

Wait that isn’t the NAM???

NAMs have never had a handle on this event and gonna go to the grave with their weak sauce idea. For some locations that have mixing issues they might end up right for the wrong reasons but up here that’s gonna bust within the next 2 hours if this keeps up.

It’s not snowing that hard but there are some ginormous flakes. Bodes well for snow growth and ratios.

32/30 Been snowing lightly for about an hour but only sticking to the snow. Just started to pick up with big fluffy flakes now and driveway just caved.

I guess I need to copyright those things

before we start the radar hallucinations... 1am Sim radar 4am sim radar 7am sim radar 10am sim radar

It's not supposed to look like much for another few hours at least...don't spook the usual suspects...we don't need those posts already

I'm suing ECMWF for stealing my snow map

Look at the trend on the GGEM, one more move like this and its a hit

Looking at H5 on GFS and GGEM the Friday storm has room to trend NW, especially if the trough trends slightly more negative and captures...its trending the right way

0z GFS is certainly not boring

I think each wave after Wed has a better chance as the TPV relaxes and moves further NE.

If that trough ends up negative instead of positive, like those two examples, we will get hit

Over the years I might have verified warning snowfall more times when I wasn't under a warning then when I was...

They don't all look that friendly though.... But if the 3k soundings are correct I will bust low along 95, and I won't be shocked if I do. I went low.

I could bust low along 95, I do think banding sets up there, but looking at soundings the snow ratios might be really low. There is a mid level layer that gets a little warm during the heaviest snow, not mix warm but warm enough to inhibit ratios a lot. Also the VVs don't necessarily align with the DGZ until pretty late along 95. But...if the ratios end up closer to 10-1 there they could get 4-5" right along 95 easily. I almost upped that area into the 3-5 but decided to be conservative.

well its a rap

The HERPDERPS was never as crazy out to lunch NW as the RGEM and GGEM. ALso the canadiens were the first to see there was a storm coming at all...then yes they were way over amplified compared to all the others...but no more so than the others were under amplified until about 24 hours out. So.... I dunno none of the guidance did amazing with this, but thats also par for these types of setups where its a relatively minor feature in the longwave flow creating the storm...basically just a little bit of spin in the flow traversing an arctic boundary creating cross boundary flow and it doesn't take much to squeeze out a 3-5" snow when you have this kind of arctic boundary hangin around...but models wont see this well at any range.