psuhoffman

It's significantly SE with the thermal boundary compared to the RGEM at the same time. My guess is it ends up in between the GFS/Euro type track and the RGEM/GGEM solution. Judging by where the thermals are at 66 hours my guess is right along 95 ends up the boundary between rain/snow mix and little accumulations and the heavy snow area.

At least it know where the death band is supposed to be. Seems like it amped up a little but still on the lower end of guidance and had those annoying dead zones between bands.

18Z gefs MEAN 50% 3" PROB

I recorded 102" in 2010 and I was living in town that year. Crazy...I remember the snow up above windows in town after the second Feb blizzard.

All good points...and I don't think it trends so far that we end up totally skunked...I doubt this ends up some Pittsburg to Binghamton jack or something... but right now 95 is pretty much the bullseye, and if I had to bet which way it ends up missing if it does...its NW not SE. But its just a guess based on what happens "more often". Nothing is universal and this could even shift southeast and it wouldnt shock me, if the PV trends further south in future runs.

Ya'll should know by now its a good thing if I am "worried". That means we have a chance at a significant snow. I don't worry when there is no chance. I don't worry if our max potential is some 2-3" event. I wasn't worried about last weekend because who cares if a 1-2" snow fails. And I don't worry if I don't expect it to snow...if I know its likely going to fail I move on. I worry when we have a real chance at a significant snow...because if it fails that hurts more. My worrying is a sign we have a chance at a good snowstorm.

LOL ok maybe "worry" wasn't the best choice of words... I will be totally fine and move on with my life regardless of what happens Sunday...well at least wrt snowfall, if the Eagles lose I'm gonna be a pretty miserable mess for a couple days at least. But what I meant was... I want to jack, don't we all? and if I am ranking what is the most likely reason I don't....between the likely options...a weak POS wave, a wave that slides SE of me, or a more amplified wave that shifts the heaviest snow to my NW...that last one is the most likely IMO. This is not just based on models right now...yea right now it seems I am in a really good spot. But I am including my experiences...these types of progressive waves with absolutely no blocking over the top have nothing to stop a north trend. When they don't trend north its often some NS wave over the top, but I don't see that right now. There have been quite a few examples over the last 10 years where at 72 hours the jack zone was south of me, then come gametime I ended up with like 2-3" and the 6" plus totals were to my NW in central PA. It happened once just last winter in February! It happened in February and April 2018, it happened with a wave in Feb 2017! It happened with a wave in early Feb 2014, although I think my area held on to like 6" but the 10" totals ended up north when 72 hours out it looked like a VA jack! Point is, history suggests there is plenty of time for this to end up NW of me even though right now it looks like the consensus is south of me for the heaviest snow. And yes this is first world problems and unlikely to get any sympathy from anyone in here because I would still likely do better than the rest of this forum, many of those examples I gave I still managed to get like 2-3" but the really heavy snow ended up north of me...but of course that meant most in here got all rain lol. So no I don't expect any tears and I wont be that upset or throw a fit if it happens...but of course I want to get 6" of snow...and yes I think someone will with this...but my guess right now honestly if you forced me to say where the 6" snowfall area is...is it will be up in PA somewhere.

Yea but that sounding only is valid if the GFS is correct about the track. If the wave trends more amplified and NW it will shift the thermals with it.

I’ve always been more worried about rain than suppressed, even for me. I was happy the euro was weak and south. I don’t want the inevitable NW shift to start too soon. Lots of time for this to become congrats central PA.

Omg it’s the worst at night, then I have to remind myself “what are you doing, even if it is snowing it’s so light it doesn't matter if you can’t see it lol”

was I not supposed to hit it with my flamethrower for 30 seconds before measuring?

NAM might catch on by Monday

lol well I just measured 0.2” lol. It’s snowing again now though

It has really good verification within 5 days. After that it gets really jumpy which makes sense because it’s difficult to use analogs at that range since you’re making a lot of assumptions before you get to the critical points in a storms development that far out.

probably 5" up at my house

Last run (if we're talking about 6z) was the best one I'd seen IMO...most expansive and significant QPF shield compared to previous runs.

I agree, brought up that as a possible analog a little while back. Of course results differ because luck has a lot to do with the details and all we care about is the snow that ends up in our yard.

Let's slow down... the planet is still warm right now on the whole...its just the coldest anomalies in the entire northern hemisphere are over the United States this winter so far. That has been true the last few years even...there were still some pockets of cold...just outnumbered by warm and nowhere near us due to the longwave pattern also being hostile to get whatever cold there is into our area.

The seasonal trend seems to have shown itself.

Normally I would agree, in a more stable pattern with a well defined threat. But all these waves are low probability until they get inside 100 hours...so everything in the range next week we've been looking at is jumping all over the place run to run. Absent blocking we are relying on lots of moving parts without any guardrails to keep then consistent run to run, for these types of waves to work out. Given that...I am simply happy to see runs that extend our window indefinitely into the future. I am not confident that any one specific threat ends up hitting...although the Sunday thing is starting to get "real". But I am confident that if we extend this pattern for a long period of time...and get multiple shots at these waves...we will eventually get a flush hit. What made 2015 and 2014 work out was partially just that those patterns set in for such a LONG time...giving us multiple chances. If we get enough chances one will work out. So I am ok simply with the fact guidance keeps pushing back the flip to a shut the blinds look...which I am skeptical ever happens...and extends our window of opportunity giving us more chances to get lucky. And I am not tossing either wave next week yet either...just saying I am happy we have even more chances after that also. It's a numbers game.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but it's a sign we're having a pretty decent year when we call a run that gives our area 1-3" day 3 and 12-18" in the long range "ugly" lol

The EPS was slightly better than 6z and indicated perhaps the Op was underdone but its not even close to the GEFS level...that was an exaggeration unfortunately.

I'm just thinking of 2 anecdotal but similar situations in 2017 and 2018 where we were trying to win with a progressive boundary wave...but things were going sideways about 48 hours before the event (it was trending north which is still my bigger fear here) and the Euro came in with a less amplified solution against all other guidance and we hugged it and posted those stupid burger king memes and said "all hail the King" and of course it was wrong and it ended up mostly rain both times and the heavy snow ended up in PA. It's pertinent IMO because those were similar setups and the euro proved its not often right when its against all other guidance. And it tends to sometimes be under amped with these things

But the Euro while by far the best is not so much better that it often is right when its off on an island. When it is the outlier its usually wrong. Yea it's more troubling having the euro as the outlier over any other model which would be easier to "toss" it still rarely scores a coup when its all alone on an island, in this case the least amplified of all guidance. It does however, make the crazy over amplified and too far NW UKMET and GGEM runs less likely...it makes the final compromise calculation closer to a less amplified solution. I'm ok with what it just showed considering we have 2 major pieces of guidance that are more amplified than we want.

as long as the whole run ends up correct IDGAF