psuhoffman

ZWYTS, Deck Pic

Did you hear some brothers down in NC invented a flying machine???

BTW, the euro doesn't fully phase, it splits the energy and still pulls that off, that was not even the max solutions...it left a little meat on the bone believe it or not. BUT looking further out...look what the op euro just did in the long range also...its starting to show up on more and more guidance. There is a LOT of uncertainty where we are heading after next week.

And the euro had those exact adjustments... that NS SW is digging down into the Dakotas and it has a bit more SER and BOOM

It has a better track record than JB then

Matt expected this last night...he was just one run too soon on his call.

Ji needs to complain more often, I see a pattern

Glacier

I don't like to bet against Bob.

GFS was SUPER close to this solution too...when I looked at the H5 I was like...hmmm this was a hair away from a big snowstorm so I am not totally shocked something spit out this solution.

BOOM

It has more "snow" into 95 than those maps indicate, but surface temps must be keeping accumulations down but I am talking about what comes NEXT

EURO!!!!!!

Euro looks decent to me

I've said for years 2014 was a LOT of luck and that pattern is unlikely to produce that degree of positive snowfall anomaly if repeated. But I think if we continue long enough we are likely to continue to get enough snow to end up in a decent place. We have had 2 snows already since the truly cold pattern set in around Jan 5 and it's not like there are no threats at all showing up, just maybe not the MECS/HECS level ones people wanted.

I would take my chances on a -EPO/AO/NAO in February!

Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10!

Just over 50". Not only did I get into the southern edge of the big totals on those 2 HECS storms that hit just north of our area...but I jacked a few times on smaller storms and marginal events...I was like the epicenter of the positive snowfall anomalies for the whole east coast that winter...just got super lucky. It happens. This year has been the inverse of that so far. Well even worse just north of me, at least I had that nice little 4" snow in November and 4" last week isn't nothing. I am content with the winter so far. Sure I'd love to jack every freaking time but that isn't how it goes, except maybe in Ji's head.

I think in about 5 days we will have a much better idea of where the MJO is heading

I don't know what he is calling for but the MJO is conflicted right now. The GFS and GGEM take it on a grand tour of the warm phases but the Euro and CFS kill the wave after phase 3 and have conflicting signals after that, which balance out to a COD plot on the diagrams lol. The GFS is trending weaker the last 2 days also...towards the idea of not having some god awful MC MJO traverse.

Couple random things I've noticed... First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm? Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating... Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years.

Glad for that, my kids have enjoyed the snow as well. I can make up ground later in the season, plus I had that crazy lucky good 2021 season so it events out in the long run.

Snowfall is really fluky, especially at our latitude.

Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately.

It could trend either way, but there is no blocking so there could be more movement either direction with that wave than there was with most of the recent threats that had a track mostly locked in by a stationary blocked flow.