psuhoffman

I’ll take a look at the long range when I get home in a bit. Been focused mostly on tomorrow.

I know the 12k NAM is having convective feedback issues. But other than “it sucks” anyone have a theory why it is having so main trouble with this specific storm v others? It doesn’t do this with every wave. Yea it sucks in general but why is it having so many issues now that are above and beyond it’s just typical suckage. Just curious.

It was snowing nicely and 31 when I left state college an hour ago.

I think 5” is a reasonable over under for you.

I lived next to frying pan park just south of Herndon from 1994-2006. I noticed in marginal temp storms there would often end up being two sharp gradients. The first was often the true fall line near McLean. Many times there was a big difference in snowfall west v east of there. Then there was another just NW of me somewhere near sterling where snow would increase again. The NW side of Dulles would do better than me a lot. If both those lines failed in marginal setups the next was along the blue ridge west of Leesburg where elevations go up near Pirceville. Round hill often did good. you’re west of the first 2 so you better be ok because if not that means everyone east of the blue ridge is screwed lol.

Anyone know how the fv3 is with placing VVs? Trying to get an idea of ratios and the GFs has lift centered ideally in the DGZ but the fv3 has the lift oddly centered very low for much of the storm. Would make a huge difference in ratios. Is there any data on which is better? I am leery of using the 3k NAM because it doesn’t really have that deform band at all which I think is wrong. And I can’t get euro soundings. Thanks.

I think the rgem has now adjusted qpf to reality it’s just too warm in the mid levels. But if you take that qpf and apply 10-1 snowfall from 95 NW that’s probably close to reality now imo.

The NAMs almost never impact my opinion. I’d still be more worried about over amplification then under

The NAM head fakes is a lot. Let’s wait until other 12z guidance comes in.

It’s pretty much a 1-3” event for places currently predicted to get 4-6”. But everyone can have their own definition of “nice”

3k just spit out one of those euro almost non event solutions from yesterday. 12k still having convective issues. On to the bigger guidance.

Euro AI money shots

Euro AI 6z v 0z. Been a rock

The euro tightened up the edges more so than it shifted NW. The axis of the heavy snow didn’t change and totals even increased some right along 95 in MD. But it drops of even faster once you get SE of the cities.

Oh and BTW the euro map that was posted used a less friendly algorithm for along the rain snow line. I’m not saying it’s wrong. But because the 0z euro maps used wxbell it gives the impression the NW shift was way worse than it actually was. This is the wxbell 6z and 0z for a fair comparison

There are still major differences between the euro and rgem. Mainly the thermal boundary. It shifted maybe 25 miles the last 24 hours. It’s still way off from the rgem and unlikely to correct that much in the final 24 hours. difference 12z 19z I doubt 95 gets totally shut out. It would take an epic fail by the euro/gfs. The last few hours of heavy snow look at the thermal boundary on the euro below. There are still 2 hours of heavy snow to go here in DC and 3 hours in Baltimore. Hard to imagine the euro is that off with thermals so I think some snow during this period is unlikely to fail. Gun to my head is say right along 95 gets at least 2-3” from that band as the coastal gets going and thermals crash, with totals increasing fast once you get NW of the fall line. But 95 could still do better if the thermals crash quick which happens sometimes. You all know the drill with these type thermal setups and our climo. It’s been a while but anyone older than 15 has lived through plenty of these.

They are imby up there but so are we. The euro did cave in the amplification and thus more SW to NE v WSW to ENE orientation and eventual heavier qpf aspects. So for them they are now virtually identical which is all they care about. We are furthest west of the metros which saves us some and they still differ in that the euro starts out with a further SE thermal boundary. The RGEM is still 50 miles NW of all other guidance on that and why it screws us hard. 0z was big bc there was a slight SE trend overall across guidance. But 6z definitely resumed the NW move. Rgem has been a rock and everything else has been bleeding towards it. But honestly even without the rgem Id still have been more nervous about a NW trend just based on history and how many times this happens the last 48 hours. I still find it hard to imagine it goes too much further and the rgem wins 100% here. It would be one of the greatest single model victories in the face of all others ever if it happens. Hopefully 6z was the final adjustment but my gut says one more similar move is possible.

I had to open my Big fat mouth

Euro AI

Getting through 0z with no NW trend was a really big deal. Our chances of a W went up significantly

Let it go

My parents live in Sea Isle

I love the kuchie snow maps… Get your heads out of the gutter

Usually the gefs has that issue. Right now it actually does have two camps but different from the eps. Gefs has a big hit camp like the op and a camp like the ggem way NW. eps wants none of that and is split between runs like the op and runs that have almost no wave at all like previous NAMs. I’ll borrow a line from Rocky IV when he said I see 3 of em out there and they told him hit the one in the middle. If you average all the extremes were in a good spot.