psuhoffman

Looking at H5 on GFS and GGEM the Friday storm has room to trend NW, especially if the trough trends slightly more negative and captures...its trending the right way

0z GFS is certainly not boring

I think each wave after Wed has a better chance as the TPV relaxes and moves further NE.

If that trough ends up negative instead of positive, like those two examples, we will get hit

Over the years I might have verified warning snowfall more times when I wasn't under a warning then when I was...

They don't all look that friendly though.... But if the 3k soundings are correct I will bust low along 95, and I won't be shocked if I do. I went low.

I could bust low along 95, I do think banding sets up there, but looking at soundings the snow ratios might be really low. There is a mid level layer that gets a little warm during the heaviest snow, not mix warm but warm enough to inhibit ratios a lot. Also the VVs don't necessarily align with the DGZ until pretty late along 95. But...if the ratios end up closer to 10-1 there they could get 4-5" right along 95 easily. I almost upped that area into the 3-5 but decided to be conservative.

well its a rap

The HERPDERPS was never as crazy out to lunch NW as the RGEM and GGEM. ALso the canadiens were the first to see there was a storm coming at all...then yes they were way over amplified compared to all the others...but no more so than the others were under amplified until about 24 hours out. So.... I dunno none of the guidance did amazing with this, but thats also par for these types of setups where its a relatively minor feature in the longwave flow creating the storm...basically just a little bit of spin in the flow traversing an arctic boundary creating cross boundary flow and it doesn't take much to squeeze out a 3-5" snow when you have this kind of arctic boundary hangin around...but models wont see this well at any range.

NOOOOO you want them to be conservative and then catch up as you are measuring 6" and saying WOW its ripping fatties

This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north.

Herpderps

The good news is even the screw zone is 2-3”

You did ok the second game after hurts got hurt and you stacked the box. Do that again. Make them throw. You have a better chance.

We were never gonna get that. The wave is getting going way too late. Those of us west of the bay would actually be better if that coastal deform waited a few more hours to develop to max out the precip from the initial boundary wave initiated by the SW along the arctic boundary.

See Goff is not reliable. Make him beat you and take your chances.

Hail to the whatever they’re called now.

Still has the screw zone. This run over 95. Seems we are resigned that’s gonna affect someone in our sub. Looking at it closer I think my gut was right it’s a transfer kind of thing. The initial inland low initiated by the SW is trending weaker and as the coastal gets going the deform that develops cuts off the heavier precip quick to its west. Creates a gap zone.

Can you stop letting them run. If you lose at least make them pass the ball. Your best chance is to hope Goff craps the bed. You have less of a chance if you let them just run the ball all over ya.

I blame Ji for his negative energy. We are just collateral damage

I think it’s a transfer jump kind of issue. Seems as the costal starts to amp its killing the initial banding associated with the SW too fast and jumping us.

I’d like it if that damn gap between the stuff west of the blue ridge and the stuff 95 east would go away. It started snowing up lately and it’s now on more and more guidance.

In fairness the ai low resolution smooths things so we don’t actually know what it’s doing with banding within the general qpf field

Sorry was taking it too seriously

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