psuhoffman

I still think our best chance will come in the Jan 26-31 window as the TPV is retreating and the boundary is near us as the cold relaxes. There will be plenty of cold left around though so long as whatever wave is not over amplified to our west. Obviously once we get within range the synoptic details will determine where the win is but I foresee a couple waves within that time period that should target somewhere close to our latitude. For Feb EPS continues to show the trough in the west central pacific under the wpo ridge. This causes ridging to extend into the SW US which prevents troughs from digging and cutting off there like has been the tendency lately. This means systems will continue to be directed further east. That’s good. Unfortunately the AO looks to go positive which could make it more difficult to be on the winning side of the boundary. It’s definitely not a sustained cold look like we’ve been in but I think we would have opportunities in that look given it’s February. Our best chance to snow in that look is to have a front clear and get a boundary wave on its heals. Kind of like yesterday only hope it’s 50 miles further south next time.

6.5” total down to 19 now

It started shifting the max qpf north some but not nearly enough but every model missed it.

There are reports of 8-9” in some isolates spots in south central PA. The 4-8” area ended up starting in extreme NW VA through northern MD border counties north into south central PA. Then the gradient south of that was severe. Those rgem runs we made fun of ended up pretty close actually unfortunately. These kinds of game time NW shifts with these boundary waves make up a large % of our areas busts. This isn’t that rare unfortunately. I always fear a north shift with these type storms.

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard.

I got 6” here a couple miles south of the PA line between Hanover and Manchester.

21/19 6” exactly. Still snowing lightly. Might be one more band to go. Im sorry this didn’t work out further south. I am grateful for events like this when my elevation and latitude help. Makes the commute worth it. And it is legit nice up here in summer when it’s the 80s with a breeze when it’s 94 in Baltimore lol.

The best banding just shifted NW which isn’t unusual with these type waves, unfortunately even at the last minute. We’ve had several busts just like this. But my area up into PA did get 4-8” the dryer models didn’t have that. No model for this right. One of the rgem runs as it started to correct but before it over corrected was probably the closest.

It’s symbiotic because the banding sets up where the thermal boundary is

4.8” 24/23

26/25 4.2" snowing moderate right now between heavy bands

I moved up here, found a house on top of a mountain at about the highest elevation east of the blue ridge/catoctins and commute an hour to work so I feel like I earned it.

You have a band heading your way in 15 mins

28/27 2.75” new. Snowing about 1.5-2”/hr now

You’ve been stuck between the southern sliders and the storms where the NW area gets hit. I think it’s just been an incredible run of bad luck. There isn’t any reason I can see. Geography hadn’t changed. Over the long run it should even out. Eventually you’ll get some storms where you jack and dc only gets 3” and it evens out.

The band up here doesn’t shock me. It’s where everyone had the max snow. But as of yet I don’t see much where the h85 fgen banding was supposed to be along 95 or east of there depending on the run. That’s just MIA so far.

My bigger concern for 95 isn’t the temps it’s the angle of the precip and where the banding sets up.

It takes really heavy snow to fill in the radar in that area!

Here it comes

If temps don't start to drop soon that area could have to have their snowfall cut. Could be the second worst cut that area's experienced...

We're counting on you

We are also in much better shape WRT ratios this time. I can tell the lift is aligned with the DGZ better because even right now as I am in a lull between that initial band that shot out ahead along the boundary and the one coming in from the SW associated with the mid level forcing... its still big nice sized flakes. Last time we had those stupid needles that don't pile up at all.