psuhoffman

So should they wait for the next shift before issuing warnings?

That sucks...the phone.

2016 there was a 2” snow from a coastal that didn’t amplify much. Was a shame. Could have been a big storm but it was weak. 2017 Was the sleet bomb yes. How often has Baltimore had a 3” snow in any month lately? Baltimore has had 3” and 5” the same amount in March as Feb since 2009! We had this debate about 4 years ago and I wasted a few hours breaking every snow event down by week and found that the chances of 3”/6”/9” events are pretty steady through the first 2 weeks of March. Also our weekly average snow is pretty steady. The chances of getting a 6” snow are really low in any given week but aren’t much lower the first week of March than now. What does go down after Feb 20 are the chances of a 12”+ event. The notion that early March is harder to snow just isn’t supported by the data. This is perception bias. Yes most of our threats in March fail. End up too warm. But guess what, that’s true in February also! But in early March for some reason people attribute it to it being to late instead of the synoptic reasons it failed. Look at last week. We just had a marginal setup fail in DC and Baltimore and snow on the NW elevated portions of this forum. If that had happened early March you would have said it was because it was too late. I know because in 2019 almost the exact same setup happened and it snowed in almost the exact same areas in the same amounts but everyone acted like the fail was because it was early March when the issue was synoptic. The wave tracked too far NW which can happen anytime. Or think of Feb 8 2021. A perfect track coastal failed because of warm boundary temps. I got 6” here but anyone without elevation was too warm. But in 2013 when that happened we blamed it on being too late. It’s perception bias. We fail because it’s too warm most of the time even in January and February.

What are you talking about, Baltimore had a snowstorm in March 7 years in a row from 2013 to 2019. The last 5 years weren’t good but those were mostly warm winters and 2022 you missed a 3-6” snow by like 10 miles.

On paper. In the real world where it matters they are 17-2 and in the Super Bowl for the 5th time in 6 years. I’m not disagreeing that if both teams play to their talents top potential the Eagles should win. And there is a universe where the eagles get out to an early lead and steamroll them. But coaching and QB play can make up for a lot. KC has great coaching on both sides of the ball and a great QB. They do this all the time. The Eagles were more talented 2 years ago, had a 10 point lead at half time, our QB had a great game, but Andy schooled out D coordinator on the second half, found a flaw in our scheme and exploited it over and over with misdirection to get guys wide open on 3 straight drives. I’m not gonna underestimate them.

Sorry the eagles copyrighted that strategy

A lot of our snowstorms in the urban corridor are "messy" and barely cold enough even in the middle of the winter. Our chances of a snowstorm don't start to decrease significantly until around March 10-15 then go way down by March 20. However, the odds of keeping snowcover for any extended period of time go way down once to mid February.

but we both hate the Cowboys

It's totally Andy and Mahomes. And rightfully so, they are arguably the best coach/QB combo ever. That can make up for a LOT. I don't think anyone would argue the Eagles are not the best and most talented roster top to bottom. Now, this last game a lot of people convinced themselves Washington was going to win because they have the best QB and that was a mistake. But this is another level. I can see this game going either way but it won't be easy. It will take a near perfect game from a ridiculously talented team to defeat them. The Eagles are very capable of pulling it off but it's not a given.

I don't doubt we fight some -PNA coming up... but with the PDO not as hostile as recent years I wonder if its more muted. I also think once we get to the last week of Feb and March if we get another AO/NAO drop we can overcome the -PNA easier that time of year. It's why Ninas often end with a snowy/cold period after a warm first 20 days of Feb.

I've tried to isolate that but warm enso is less consistent. I think the issue is in general el nino's tend to get worse in March v Feb. If you look at the snowfall splits by week we have a HUGE spike in snowfall mean in Jan/Feb then it decreases in early March (compared to the normal climo drop). The years a warm enso had a big march coincided with crazy blocking and that can override a lot in March as it becomes more impactful with shorter wavelengths. It's a lot easier to overcome the -PNA with a -NAO in March.

The GFS and Euro have been showing this kind of thing randomly on about half their runs late in the period...I think it is where we are heading, cold enso seasons that had a period of extreme blocking earlier in winter typically had another late. But I think the operationals are rushing it probably, I expect us to get there eventually but probably later in Feb.

I actually think this is a good thing for our prospects Late Feb into March. The years where the Nina was fading towards neutral early actually had a lower frequency of snow/cold in March. I think the reason is as the wavelengths shorten the pacific ridge actually becomes less problematic. In years where the Nina background faded we had a lower chance of getting a snowstorm late in the season.

I could care less who wins but if they call some of this BS they’re calling to help the Chiefs in 2 weeks I’m gonna be pissed

Washington had a great season considering where they are in the rebuilding process. Amazing really. And JD is gonna be a pain in the ass for a long time.

I think we have a chance

@CAPE they played the math imo. The hit to our win % from a fg there was way less than a TD. Not worth playing aggressive. Play safe. Don’t allow a TD. Hope your line makes a play or they screw up but if not allow the FG.

I’m not. They played it exactly like I would have. Played both safeties deep every play. Don’t give up a TD. Go in up 2 scores getting the ball. Don’t risk a TD to make it a one score game. Now they can make it a 3 score game with a TD out of the half. I’d have played it different if we were kicking off or I didn’t trust our offense to put up at least another 10+ points in the second half. Up 13 getting the ball with an offense that hasn’t had trouble scoring on this team in 3 games this year is a HUGE spot to be in

Have to wait and see if today was a trend or another head fake at progressing too fast.

@Ji in the last 16 years IAD has had 3” or more snow in March more often than February. 7 times v 6. IAD has had 5” more often in March 6 times to 5! Feb beats March in 10” months by 1 in the last 16 years. 3x to 2. The odds of a 3/6/8” snow is almost the same each week from Jan 1 to March 15 then hits wall and goes to almost nothing by March 20th. It is true there is a spike in 12”+ events from Jan 20-Feb 18 then the chances of a 12”+ storm does go down but in terms of snow we have the same chances to get a 6” snow the first 10 days of March as we nave the first 10 in February

EPS is colder at day 15 also

@Ji I just looked over all the ensemble guidance and the mjo forecasts and compared it to the analogs I’ve been tracking. We’re right on track. Most of the similar analog years had a relax and warmer period for about 2-4 weeks sometime late January to late February. The pattern progression looks very similar and right on time. However, something differentiates this year from the warmer more delayed shift years. It’s colder and even during the warm up cold is near and ready to attack once the pattern flips. Some of the warmer years the long wave pattern flipped like Feb 15-20 but we wasted another week getting cold. That won’t happen this year. Im betting we flip back cold real fast once the mjo gets to 8 and the AO continues its consistent pattern and dips below -1 again. The timing of that looks to be around Feb 15-20 imo. This seems like a less extreme version of 2014 to me. Maybe a combination of 2014 and 2009 is the closest to reality right now. But I don’t think the warm up is as long or as hopeless as in the dreg years we feared were the best analogs! If you’re holding this year to some unrealistic standard like expecting a 1996 or 2014 outcome(the two best non Nino winters of the last 75 years) then you’re likely to be disappointed which seems to be your status quo! But if you compare this season to the majority of cold neutral to weak Nina comps like 2001, 2002, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023 we are very likely to finish above the average snowfall of those combines years and might even make a run at being the best of them except for 2014, depending on how the second half goes. So I ask what bar are you using to judge because we are doing way better then almost all the best analogs.

Yea we did. A lot. But you’re taking it to extremes again. The pattern being advertised isn’t a no hope for weeks pattern. It’s a period where we likely end up above normal and most of the precip will be rain but we could luck into a snow event if we bet a well timed follow up wave behind a cold front. Cold will be close enough that it’s not hopeless. Them sometime between Feb 20-March 1 we likely go back into a truly favorable period where the cold is centered over us again. There were lots of posts to that effect in the last week by several people. I even listed the analogs and pointed out we did get some snow during the warmer Feb period in a few of the years like that 2-4” storm in Feb 2018! I have no idea where you got the idea that we would flip back cold by early Feb except if you totally bought into one or two runs of the euro at day 15. It was progressing things way too fast, which is a common error. We will get there. I’m very confident we get another cold/snowy period. But all the analogs say it’s probably not until around Feb 20-March 1 that we truly flip cold again. That doesn’t mean we won’t get anymore snow before then. But it’s likely to average above normal on the whole until at least Feb 15.

What are you talking about? A week ago we were speculating the flip back cold might be the very end of Feb or early March. I said “if it flips back by Feb 20 we are ahead of schedule” And you had accumulating snow in March in 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022.

I said it would be harder to be cold than it has been until then. And even on this gfs it’s warm for a decent bit before and after that threat. But anything that’s not “it’s gonne be frigid and snow a shit ton” seems to end up interpreted as “winters over”