psuhoffman

I would still like to get that trough near AK just a little further west. But it’s a pretty good look.

That’s the second highest peak. High point is just west of route 30 just south of the PA border north of Manchester. My house is on the summit of the 3rd highest peak in the area.

You can see the highest point from here on the next ridge over. You could walk there it’s probably a little over a mile. About 75 feet higher than me.

Location probably matters...for me 3x climo would be ~120”. And while that would be awesome no matter which option I’ve seen a 103” winter up here already so that’s a storm I couldn’t pass up and 120” isn’t melting fast up here either!

That’s my fault I mis typed the years

I don’t think anyone thought your comments have been in appropriate or crazy. But some people are going too far. And it would be the same on the left. If some leftist started spouting about revolution they would get censored right quick too. Extreme is extreme and that’s not what this board is for. I’ve had my own comments about gun control and other topics deleted when it drifted too far into politics. Since I have some inside knowledge I’ll add something regarding the school opening calculus. The factors schools are weighing are not primarily the health of the students. We know that are likely to be ok except in cases of extremely immune compromised children. But schools have to weigh the risk to the staff and the risk the students bring home covid and expose relatives and others in the community. We don’t have a lot of conclusive data on the former but we have had enough cases of faculty becoming ill and unfortunately passing away from exposure as schools to know that is a very real risk. Just in my department alone we have 3 teachers who have filed FMLA and won’t be back due to health risks until their doctor approves it. There is no way my dept can function down 3 teachers. We’re already short staffed and have large classes. I know my sons classes are being taught over a projector because his teacher has a health risk and can’t come in. So they have an aid babysitting the class while they watch on a projector. I don’t see how that is really better. I am not saying we shouldn’t open schools. I’ll let everyone make that determination themselves. But the calculations schools are making aren’t the ones I see being discussed here where most of the talk is of the students health when that isn’t the primary reason schools are closed.

So your going to not pay what funds the thing you want open. Sound logic

Oppositional defiance isn’t always a good thing. Setting aside whether it actually is BS, even if it were so what? Lots of necessary things in life invariably will be something some individuals think is BS. Rules. Regulations. Standards. Hoops we have to jump through. Having the attitude you express here will set anyone up for a difficult frustrating life if they think they can just blow off any obligation they don’t personally think is important. It’s not good for their growth as individuals and its not good for the future of our society.

Winter forecast. I used analogs and pattern recognition. Factors include ENSO, QBO, PDO, AMO, AAM, Atl SST, soil moisture, and trends. December I expect the predominant pattern to take on a configuration that resembles... January as the PV reaches its Max and the jet stream settles into its dominant winter configuration I could see things evolve to Finally in February as the same old regulars (we all know who) tell us everyday how awful it is as if we don’t know I think the pattern might transition to For anyone who makes it to March expect

You don’t need permission.

More often when we go into a healthy Nina it lasts multiple years. 1998/99-2000/01, 2007/8-2008/9, 2010/11-2011/12, 2016/17-2018/19.

Good old American “f@!& it let’s just give up” attitude.

This has been my experience. I do think the issue is too many don’t have the maturity and responsibility to do what is necessary without a teacher there physically to lean into them so to speak. That’s as much a societal failure as their individual one.

I dunno about the luck but we do dumb pretty good

This winter looks as promising as the Cowboys season

2014-15?

How did 2013-14 look in the fall of 2013? Was there any hints a big winter was in store. Between 2009 and 2016...we did really well snow wise I didn’t think it was going to be that good but there were some signs it wasn’t headed toward a dumpster fire in the fall that year.

I am not throwing in the towel yet...maybe the pac is throwing false signals (unlikely) or maybe we get some blocking (past results don’t always predict future outcomes).

That Pac though... ugh. I think the hints are piling up that this year will be in the really bad pac setup Nina category. If so our only hope to get any snow will be a period of blocking. Doesn’t have to be a predominant winter feature. 2000 was a positive NAO winter but we had 2 weeks of blocking and cashed in! A few years in the similar set Im looking at we got some blocking late and a little snow in March to avoid a total shutout. But in the moderate/strong Nina with a flat pac ridge analog set I see absolutely no snow without blocking. Not a single fluke storm. So I know this isn’t where we want to be...but if we don’t get any blocking we’re in BIG trouble imo.

Fixed

There are ways to find legit objective news. Problem is it won’t be on 24 hour networks. That’s because they have to fill time and they do it by punditry where they talk about the news. That’s not the news. That’s talking heads telling you how to feel about the news. The actual news they report isn’t really that biased. The pure Fox News and CNN news desk stuff isn’t that far apart. But then they fill the other 80% of their time with biased commentary tailored to their audience to tell you how you should feel about that news. Wonder what would happen if a network filled that time with feel good stories and lesser known real news vs noise.

Where’s the blue???

And which of those is favorable right now?

First winter call

The GEFS look could work later in winter. November and December we tend to need some Pac cooperation.