psuhoffman

Where that fgen associated banding sets up is important because the low level temperature profile east of the mountains is not great. This is not a setup where very light snow over a long period of time will amount to much. You can see the temperatures above just before that fgen associated banding develops are not ideal for accumulations over east central VA. As the banding develops you can see the effect on the surface temps due to evaporation cooling and pulling some cooler air down in the column in heavier precip. This shows the effect fully a few hours later. This is a setup where outside the higher elevations you probably have to get under that band to really see much accumulating snow. On top of that we are talking about a narrow band already...so this will likely be a pretty localized thing where some places get 2" under that band where a few miles outside have some snow tv and wet ground. Where exactly that banding sets up will be a nowcast thing...but @DTWXRISK map above looks really good to me. I wouldn't really change anything from that except I do wonder if the less than 1" area in lower elevations will accumulate much at all due to surface temps outside the heavier precip but now we are really getting picky with details over 1/2 of snow lol. Anyways...good luck. Hope someone down there gets deathbanded to 3"

@Buddy1987 sorry I got really busy today. Was outside taking care of some yard work then had to do homework with my son and get done a report for a meeting tomorrow. Not sure how much I can add at this point. There are several vorts diving into the trough behind the system exiting New England. You can see the flow behind that system preventing this from amplifying and coming up the coast. That system is just not exiting in time. The southern system is picking up just a bit of gulf moisture right now though. By late tonight/early morning the southern feature starts to merge and be absorbed into one of the two northern features...you can see the the more potent upper low here..in a good spot to pull up what little gulf moisture is available. That actually would support a more significant expanse of precip if it wasn't for the suppressive flow behind the exiting storm really compressing things. All the pieces are coming together much too late for anything significant...and the coastal low is developing well off the coast...but there is just a tiny bit of an inverted trough feature to the NW. That adds a little moisture convergence. Finally there is a bit of fgen over central and southeast VA early tomorrow morning. This could be where a heavier band sets up for a time.

The tpv being that far west will promote ridging unless the NAO really tanks so we need the spacing to work. If the waves are too spread our they all cut like the Gfs op run

Imo this here is our best chance of a snow event before Xmas. This is EPS but GEFS is similar for that range. Nice -NAO. Can see the likely cutter still lingering in the 50/50 domain as the next wave approaches. It’s not perfect. The pac is already less than ideal but it hasn’t gone to complete crap yet here. It’s a decent look.

@DTWXRISK @CAPE agree plus if we can get repeated periods of Atlantic blocking we could also luck into a window when the pacific pattern relaxes just enough. NAO will exert more influence as we head later in the season imo. ETA: let me be clear I’m not arguing we have a great winter incoming. Just things don’t look as bleak as last year ATT.

Thank you. I’m outside doing yard work right now but I’ll throw something up when I get in. But I do think places in central VA will see some light snow and a coating to 2” in general with maybe 3” in some spots. Most likely higher elevations in west central VA.

@DTWXRISK true and the weakening Nina definitely could have a significant impact by March!

Do you understand this is a discussion board. It’s not a bulletin board. People are free to respond to other posts. I wasn’t being hostile to you in that post. I was simply explaining that surface pressure wasn’t really the problem here imo. You can refute that if you want. I won’t take offense. That’s how a discussion works. But you seem to be upset whenever someone disagrees with you and resent that they posted a response unless it was to agree. I admit I was hostile towards you wrt your NWP comments. That’s because I feel your accusations are unwarranted and insulting to the people here who work in NWP. But that dispute doesn’t have to spill over into every other interaction we have on this board. I was simply adding my interpretation to this setup to your comment. It wasn’t meant to start a fight.

Ugly. January I could envision some brief periods of opportunity within that mean...but not many any Feb looks like last winters pattern.

It’s good news...but it doesn’t get back to weak Nina status until around Feb and there is typically a lag in atmospheric response so I’m not totally sure it will save us from a generally hostile pacific pattern during the “meat” of winter. I am optimistic at signs (including the SSW) that we might get more help up top and on the Atlantic side that could offset a less ideal pac pattern at times. Last year EVERYTHING was wrong. And not saying the weakening Nina isn’t a good though. Every bit helps.

That’s in the general window we have before the AK vortex invades pac puke across. It’s not a great pattern but it’s in that zone where I wouldn’t be shocked if absolutely nothing comes of it or if we luck into something between the 12-18th. longer range the GEFS improved slightly. Retrograde the ridge on the Atlantic side some and that AK trough could get forced out. Either drop in under or retrograde west. Either works. It’s an ugly look for Xmas but could lead somewhere better after that. Last year we were facing an evolution where the only light at the end I saw was an oncoming train.

It’s not a matter of a storm being suppressed. The issue is a flat flow behind the departing system and the mid level feature that creates the lift tracks south of us. That could change but there is no high involved in the equation.

Fixed

Uh oh it’s so bad he broke character. 2020 has broken the reaper!!!

The EPS still shows a brief window around Dec 16-18 before the pac puke arrives if something can amplify before the cutter vacates the 50/50 region. After that looks ugly. Silver lining is the Atlantic side stays ok. Unlike last year there are hints, including signs of a SSW, that the NAM might not be a complete lost cause this year. The pac looks a mess. I kind of assumed that was coming. But last year the Atlantic side was hostile too. That’s a no hope situation. If we get some Atlantic side help this year we should get some opportunities. It will still be a struggle and a fight. Nothing will come easy. But it’s not hopeless like last year.

See my post above

I’m not touching policy. I don’t want to start a political fight! I was simply fact checking some statistical claims he made. I wasn’t advocating for or against anything you just said. Just didn’t want some false information floating around. People are free to draw whatever conclusions they want from the statistics...but the stats should be accurate at least.

@40westwx couple clarifications. 1. The US population increased by about 957,000 in 2019 not 6 million. Maybe you saw 6% which is the avg rate increase over the last 20 years and misinterpreted that. But the rate has been dropping steadily in recent years. 2. a relatively small change in the mortality % is really significant when applied to 329 million people! Your talking about hundreds of thousands of people with just a fraction of a % change. 3. deaths from heart disease are up not down. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-the-heart-attack-death-rate-has-doubled-during-covid-19 https://www.heart.org/en/news/2020/07/10/more-people-are-dying-during-the-pandemic-and-not-just-from-covid-19 4. One number in isolation doesn’t give a clear picture when dealing with an issue that has multiple variables. You need to control for all the variables. This could work either way. Deaths from things like heart disease have gone up due to people in some cases being reluctant to get treatment. But there is evidence some other death rates have gone down. Even though the % of accidents that are fatal has gone up die to wreck less driving on less crowded roads because the sheer volume of accidents is so down the overall mortality decreases. There are various other factors needed to be calculated. That could end up pushing the conclusion you infer in either direction but it can’t be known until it is done. I’ll let the expert statisticians who are paid to do that...do it before I draw conclusions.

Cool, my misunderstanding. Just want to make sure I know “the rules”. OSfan was being a bleep though.

Told ya the dry slot wouldn’t make it to you. That band will start to dissipate over the next couple hours but upslope flow could keep you going for a while.

We can get intense CCB banding down in MD too but it’s less frequent getting a storm to amplify enough that far south. Plus we can get some pretty good WAA front end thumps too if there is a deep cold layer dammed in. Obviously it happens way more frequently in New England.

So you’re saying there are very fine people on both sides?

But if there is a storm thread do they still post in there or the storm thread? Maybe it was that way and I never noticed before. We’ve had forum dividing events though and melt downs by weenies whose feeling are hurt it’s not gonna snow on their house but I don’t remember (besides jokes) suggesting the part of the region getting snow needs to sequester themselves away so as not to hurt the feelings of those not getting snow.

@mdhokie this is the mortality chart for 2020 from the October CDC update with covid broken down by age. You can see mortality has been running way above normal. The drop near the end is due to a lag in reporting. The second chart lumps all flu/pneumonia/covid deaths together which debunks the claim that flu or pneumonia deaths were being mis attributed. If so it’s funny how we suddenly had a pneumonia epidemic.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate The site clearly specifies that 2020 does not include covid impacts. In searching for this source I also found references to the CDC releasing non covid mortality estimates. So putting 2+2 that chart is our 2020 projected mortality absent effects of covid. Which makes sense. But the way it was presented was misleading.