psuhoffman

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.

It has sucked but in fairness the other globals didn’t cover themselves in glory with those 2 storms from that range either.

Aww man I was getting a laugh out of every one of those posts. Why ya gotta ruin the fun.

Do you at least have a name on the script or do they just refer to you as "ensign#3"

@DTWXRISK JK nice map

I looked at the EPS members. There is a relationship. I identified the 7 most amplified members for Monday and 6 of them had the most south/cold solution for Wednesday. Those 6 had the axis of heaviest snow south of DC. Some were a total miss south. The 7th had a weird all NS solution with not much of a storm anywhere. Inversely the 11 members that I pulled as being flat and weak Monday had the warmest north solutions Wednesday. 9/11 were north of the mean Wednesday. And the 2 most suppressed Monday members were by far the most extremely north members Wed. Obviously this isn’t scientific but it seems on the Eps anyways a more amplified system Monday leads to a colder solution Wednesday. Less obvious is any correlation to the amplitude or organization of the Wed storm. There were amplified but qpf producers in both camps. Some weaker in both. But the warm/cold correlation was like 90%

A more amplified Monday wave would suppress ridging along the east coast some. Maybe that helps get a cleaner transfer sooner. Or maybe more amplified runs are just more amplified across the board lol

I think he said he is working the mid shift this week. So he is probably sleeping.

I only analyzes one gefs run. On that one run 24 hours ago there did not seem to be any discernible correlation between the amplitude of the Monday wave and the Wed wave. But things can change. If they become less spaced the odds they impact each other increases. Also of Monday crosses a critical threshold and is amplified “enough” it would have to impact the next wave. Ill take a look at the 12z guidance to see if there is a more obvious correlation now.

It’s a noise level (at that range) adjustment either way from being all snow or a lot of tears in DC. That’s how we roll.

In fairness to nws CTP State College caught the NE fringe and got super high ratios. It wasn’t like forecasts were 100 miles off with that storm. But getting the edges right is always tough.

Ratios!

Hybrid imo. Definitely not Miller A but there is some stj play and the initial system coming from our west isn’t purely northern stream. Maybe I’ll add something on A/B/hybrid to the snow climo thread later since this keeps coming up.

Gefs looked much better than the op

Especially NW of 95...

How come all the other guidance they continue to release faster but the euro stays 1am. The gap is crazy now. At least years ago we had the ggem/gefs and various other “guidance of the hour” crap coming out between the Gfs and euro. Now everything else is done by 11:45 and it’s a crazy wait. ETA: I am not waiting up. If I happen to wake up fine otherwise it will look the same at 7am as it does at 1am

UKMET???

You really think you’re going to change his mind

We should have a cage match between @Ji and @DTWXRISK to settle this.

Gefs

I just had an idea...

You reaping by zoom?

Precip updated. Gefs is a significant improvement over 18/12z. I could tell from the h5 and slp.

The TPV pulls west and the next trough dives in too far west so even with a -AO/NAO that’s not so good unless it’s 2010 level blocking. But the guidance was doing that for this week not long ago and you were whining that the storms were tracking now were cutters. So...