psuhoffman

You love posting the panel right after the one we need

I like the look to the slp on the gefs.

Yea the better runs have a lot more stj involvement. There was almost none this run.

Imo the issue on the GFS...it’s fine through 120 then then it transfers but instead of amplifying and pulling the upper feature in the coastal escapes and the upper level support washes out. The storm never really amplified even to our northeast. Put simply it flubs the handoff.

I doubt we should expect the Gfs to handle that perfectly at this range anyways. It’s trending better with the things that matter most. I agree.

My bad. 12z. Didn’t realize because I had never looked at it. That should tell you what I think of it.

He was talking about Jan 1996

One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence. Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other.

We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big!

Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you.

Great city not just for snow

Depends. There wasn’t much correlation on the GEFS members between the two systems. I checked. There is enough separation (as of now). I think the mid week threat is more dependent on the high/confluence and the interaction of the STJ with the NS.

That can get way in the weeds because people argue over the definitions. Is a miller B any storm that goes up west of the apps and jumps? Only northern stream systems that jump and develop. Some mix? Where does it go from A to B? Most storm jump somewhere. Actually all storms jump since pressure centers are always redeveloping. But those jumps are often minor. So when a gulf system gets into GA then jumps to off the Carolina coast we don’t say anything. When a storm jumps from Ohio to off VA that’s a bit more significant so it gets a different classification. I don’t really like to waste time arguing about definitions and terminology. So it just depends. Rule is the more STJ dominant the better. Further south the transfer and or phase the better! Closer to a miller A the better. But a pure miller A is rare. And even those rules aren’t 100% March 2013 we had a northern stream handoff that jumped so far south due to an Uber block that we got screwed and the heavier banding set up by Richmond. Everything is a matter of degrees. Everything depends on lots of variables. Even the perfect track depends on how mature and deep the low is and the thermal profile around it.

You are correct if it’s a pure northern stream dominant miller b. But there are A/B hybrids. If there is enough STJ involvement and the phase/transfer happens far enough south those can work. Right now this looks like a hybrid. Lots of STJ involvement. I think we have more of a chance here then with a pure miller B. But unless it’s a pure miller A there is always a risk the storm develops too late for us.

If P3 is an appetizer I’m gonna need some stretch pants

Naw that’s not how it’s gonna go. We’re going to be watching radar as the first BECS bears down. NWS zone says 50-60” in DC. 70”+ NW. 20 foot drifts. And just as the first flakes are about to fall Trump Nukes the storm so his flight to Maralago isn’t delayed.

Just read the discussion thread. Confused. Why aren’t there 500 posts about the weeklies, MJO and the strat right now?

Build the h5 pattern and the snow maps will come

Trends. Lot of time. Let’s see how this evolves. It’s a slight adjustment in boundary temperature from a big hit. Also a few times in recent years guidance showed something at range that didn’t align with the pattern. Each time they adjusted. The most recent was late January last year. There was a coastal threat that at range was a perfect track rain. I said that didn’t make sense with the pattern. In the end the storm stayed suppressed but it would have been cold enough. The guidance adjusted. It was one of the only realistic threats we had all winter. We just didn’t cash in but not due to temps. I’ll agree if it did go down that way it would be troubling. I don’t mind when bad patterns are bad. But if we start losing when everything is perfect that’s a bad sign for something worse then just a bad pattern behind our struggles. But my guess is if this progresses like that Gfs run it would be colder. Yea this

You assessing your posts now?

Monday would have to thread a needle. Thermals will be a problem. The spacing between systems and the angle of the front is problematic. If the front clears the storm likely stays south. If it doesn’t it’s warm. Very narrow window for frozen. Not impossible but unlikely imo. The threat after that though is looking better across all guidance and might be our first real good opportunity. Plenty of hits in all 3 ensembles. More importantly the idea is supported by the major teleconnections

Surface is scorched.

Yes except we aren’t chasing a day 16 fantasy. The NAO ridging has already begun to develop and by 72 hours we have a legit -AO/NAO that holds and even strengthens through the rest of the run on ALL guidance.

It’s the best look up top we’ve had in years...some ppl are just getting antsy because there isn’t a blizzard on the Gfs yet lol