psuhoffman

North south east or west is my call. You know how this game works!

It is positive to see the globals still trending better. One last point on the NAM. The reason it goes berserk with the h7 warm layer is actually something it’s doing synoptically that makes it a huge outlier. @CAPE made a great post early this morning about how the trough is strung out and the guidance focusing more on the lead wave is helping to keep the system under us. The NAM is the holy guidance not doing that. It has a more amplified but also consolidated trough and this allows it to amplify to our west. If that’s wrong the h7 warm layer will be overdone. I have no idea if it’s wrong. Preponderance of evidence would say it’s overdoing it. I’m going to go with that. But I sure will feel more comfortable when it drops that idea and gets on board with other guidance. That is all.

Fair enough. From my perspective what’s annoying is some seem to focus in on the negative I say. In the last 24 hours I bet I’ve made 10x more positive posts. And sometimes even within a post I’ll make a positive and a negative point. I’m analyzing all the possible permutations. But then the negative thing I said gets all the attention and it comes off like I cancelled storm when that wasn’t my intent. I intended to point out the NAM was bad and it COULD be right and explained why. But obviously I suck at communicating that because it turned into “I went off the rails and cancelled the storm”. It doesn’t matter what my intent is if that’s what people take from my posts. One thing I think that’s at play sometimes is some seem to want certainty and a narrative. I view this as chaos and I’m ok with that. I am open to all the variables and outcomes. I don’t need to pretend to know exactly how it’s going to go. I don’t know. No one does. So people try to read certainty from my embrace of the uncertainty. The NAM is possible. So is the crazy 10” para gfs. I can see reasons for both. I could see the NAM being a little too aggressive with the warm layer and the heavy rates mixing it out. I can also see an argument for the NAM given this setup and history with this kind of SW flow. I’m open to both possibilities. But I think some want to be told how the bad one isn’t likely and placate their fears and so my embrace of both comes off as an embrace of the fail only.

Yea I pointed out in my NAM post how crazy divergent it is. It’s WAY off with the initial wave.

This is personal perspective. I don’t disagree with what you said. But there is another POV. The globals all do show a 4-8” snow before the flip to ice from DC north. And yes some in here are believing that. The NAM shoes NO snow. That’s a pretty big difference. My point was if we want the big thump snow scenario to be right the NAM is problematic. Ive not said the NAM is definitely right. But it’s good at seeing high level warm air intrusion. And that’s been my worry all along why this would be more a ice then snow event. But I said it could be wrong too and admitted it’s still early to take us as gospel but like I told Leesburg I think when I explain why the worst model could very well be right it annoys people whose first defense mechanism instinct is to dismiss and find ways to toss any model that threatens their dream. Now about personal preference if someone has accepted this is just a mixy ice event with very little snow of significance then there is no problem. But I have absolutely no interest in a sleet bomb. None. Zero zip. Sleet and freezing rain do absolutely NOTHING for me. Actually I hate them worse then rain because they make me angry it’s not snowing. Maybe that fact explains my stance here! Just being honest about my admittedly crazy feelings. So for me the difference between the globals and the NAM is HUGE. The globals (with their 4-8” snow) is an event worth tracking. The NAM to me is a total fail since I only care about snow.

Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis. But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have. I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right. It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately!

Rgem still looks good. 3-6” before flip to sleet.

For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago. One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail. I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic. Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me? Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo.

Ugh that’s so ugly.

Did you not pay any attention to what the Eps pulled last week in VA??? Your other points are valid. I’m not out on this. But the euro has been pretty bad lately.

Yea hopefully some red tags will come say how Im crazy to be worried about the NAM at 72. But the NAM is really good at picking up on these warm layers. But it is still outside optimal range. It can be wrong. I’m not throwing any towel. But I keep wanting to see some sign the NAM is going to cave and it’s locked in with that 700mb warmth.

3k NAM looks better. Still a bit NW of the globals at 60 but not nearly as bad as the 12k.

Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag.

I objectively analyzing the data. My desires don’t influence my analysis. Crazy how no one minded my analysis of the positive trends on all the globals. It’s not my fault the NAM looks like hot poop.

Around 700mb. It’s pretty high up which jives with the jet presentation. Warmest level could even be above 700mb. That’s why such a large sleet area.

Problem is the NAM has the ability to see the mid level warm layers the globals don’t. The other problem is with the screaming SW jet it kinda makes sense! It’s why I was hesitant to get excited about this setup. So yea maybe it’s wrong but it’s worrying Imo. ETA: would still be a high impact ice event. I have absolutely 0 interest in that though.

NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow.

It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW

You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon!

I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS

This ones just for fun

See I’ll post a positive one of those too. I’m not actually a deb it’s not my fault those trends have all been bad this year until now.

@leesburg 04

Yes. The pac is finally hot garbage after this week. Luckily it waited until the part of winter when the pac matters the least. Still if it’s going to be that awful we will need the NAO to offset.