psuhoffman

We haven't had that many BIG snowstorms though...and our records only go back to the late 1800s. There are LOTS of dates that lack a HUGE snowstorm. The last week of February has had some 10" plus storms though. I do think the odds of a 20" type snowstorm in the 95 corridor start to go down once you get past the middle of February but it doesn't just STOP on a dime February 20th or something. They go down gradually each day. The fact one date has had a big storm and another did not is random chaos. This is just like when you try to play the "we are due" game or use the fact we never had more then a certain number of years without a big snowstorm to feel confident it we would get one...how has that worked out for you? Or used one bad year to think odds must be good of a better one next year...how did that work? I showed you that statistically the results one year have absolutely no effect on the odds the next year and you still brought that up again later that winter. The fact there are not usually a string of several anomalies in a row is simply the same reason that if you flip a coin you wont likely get heads 5 times in a row...but its still random chance each time. We had 7 years in a row below average once and a 10 year period with 8/10 below avg. We have also had a 10 year period with 7/10 above average. Again...you are constantly trying to find order in randomness for some reason.

looks more like upper 40's and rain! LOL. I don't know what it was... just a gut feeling...but when I saw the RGEM this afternoon my thought was "ugh well that would be a way to turn this whole progression next week into a total fail...but its just the rgem so ok". Then as soon as I saw the NAM go that way tonight I just had a sinking feeling. It's not pessimism because when we saw over amped western Phase rain solutions that didn't bother me at all. But something about this struck me as a more realistic fail scenario. I just had a sinking feeling when I saw the NAM and before all the other guidance I would have bet a LOT they would all go this way. Just felt it.

Baltimore had a 10"+ snowstorm Feb 22-23 1987. I know there was a big snowstorm the last few days of February in 1966 also. I am sure there were a lot of smaller snowstorms also...but those are some really big ones the last week of Feb. There is no reason it cannot snow the last week of February.

Feb 25 and 28 2005

I was closer to the 7 and DC the 4 both storms. I think you were about 5-6 both storms.

@Maestrobjwa btw you need to stop trying to find meaning in random chaos. Just because a certain date has been a while since it snowed is random luck. You are always trying to find trends and order in things that are totally random chaos.

This isn’t true. We’ve had snowstorms the last week of Feb. We had two 4-7” storms the last week of February in 2005.

Trend continues it might not be that cold.

That’s not the problem. You know I’ve been optimistic because I didn’t buy the amplified idea. But this problem is different. It’s a wave spacing issue. It’s also related to a trend I’ve noticed across guidance the last 24 hours to shift the TPV northwest over the weekend. That trend finally allowed enough ridging among the east coast for a wave to ride up Monday and lock the boundary to our west. None of the waves are amplifying anymore. The problem is the TPV slides across too late and too far north and so the boundary stalls to our west and all the waves run that boundary. The boundary could shift back yes but that’s something I’m a lot less confident in then I was that over amped wouldn’t be a problem.

I know you are grasping for something to hug for comfort but there is no point looking that far out with several waves that will all influence each other in front of it. Look what’s happened to storms much closer. Besides comfort is overrated. I prefer to let the bitter pain penetrate and cleanse my snow weenie soul. Embrace the sorrow and breathe in the despair. Live in the moment and experience the fail!

It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave. The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW.

Lot of time left but tonight’s trend is bad.

Gfs went that way too. Not good. Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression. That is not the way we want it to to trend.

It’s ice. Icon took a baby step towards the NAM though. RGEM continued in that camp also at 0z. Not even sure there would be a Tuesday storm on the rgem behind the rain Monday. It’s squashing that wave behind the rainstorm.

Everything is random. Weather is chaos. If it doesn’t snow we will be ok. We always are.

So far it’s only showing on the rgen and NAM at range. Hopefully nothing else moves towards that progression at 0z.

The weakening of the wave Saturday is setting off a chain reaction I don’t think I like. The weaker wave Saturday opens the door for a wave that was previously squashed between Saturday/Tuesday to amplify. Problem is that wave comes after the current cold press has been scoured by the southerly flow of the Saturday wave and before cold can get in from the eventual TPV sliding across on top of us Monday. Additionally the wave Sunday/Monday will prevent the cold from pressing in ahead of the wave Tuesday meaning we would need the cold to come in just in time. The only positive is with even less space the wave Tuesday is less likely to amp up but I already expected that trend to continue. This progression sucks because it could wipe out all the snow Monday for the northern half of the forum which besides simply sucking itself would also hinder the surface temps for the next 2 waves.

I honestly haven’t been following it close enough. From a quick glance the best forcing seems to pass through in the next 6 hours so if it’s gonna not bust the next few hours is critical.

I compared the whole next 10 days from 0z to 12z subtracting the snow from last night.

It looks like it went down because we lost the snow from overnight. But if you adjust for that it actually went up like 1-2” NW of 95

Personally I don’t think enso has been driving our patterns as much as it used to since 2016. I think the lack of gradient muted the ninos and the warmth all around it muted the Ninas some. There have been a lot of atypical patterns per enso the last 2 Nina/nino cycles

Last year was a nino!

@CAPE yes but the other day when I checked the top pattern analogs (and those include the pac) were February 2007, March 56, February 1994 and I saw Feb 79 in there too! All of them were at least significantly cold. Some snowed a lot, some a little, but they weren’t periods where cold was in short supply. Seems harder to get the same temp response lately.

The weak wave Monday is hurting our chances Tuesday Imo. Prevents the high from building in.

Manchester MD. About 3 miles south of the PA line due north of DC at about 1000 feet.